Can Kratovil hold the seat?
Democrat Frank Kratovil isn't due to declare victory for another hour-and-a-half, but it's never too early to look ahead to his re-election bid. He won in a tremendous Democratic year, running as an Eastern Shore moderate against a very conservative Western Shore Republican in a district that by all rights should be safe for the GOP, even though registered Democrats hold a slight numerical edge. Congressmen are usually most vulnerable in their first re-election bid, so who should the GOP put up against him?
The obvious possibility is Andy Harris, the Republican state senator who just barely lost to him this time. Kratovil will have some advantage of incumbency, but anything less than the Democratic tidal wave of this year, and Harris might be the one declaring victory today. The down side for Harris: He'd have to give up his safe seat in the state Senate. If he aims to do that, would he rather try for governor or comptroller? Or maybe Baltimore County Executive?
Sen. E. J. Pipkin is another strong possibility. He's spent loads of his own money to run for Senate and this year for Congress. He's got an advantage in that he's an Eastern Shore guy, and this year's election returns suggest the Eastern Shore is not ready to be represented by someone from this side of the Bay. Downside: Like Harris, he'd have to give up his state Senate seat and might have bigger ambitions.
Bob Ehrlich: He's by far the biggest name being floated out there for this seat. He may not be eager to go back to Congress, especially if the Democrats remain in control there. But he might also see another run for state-wide office as being a stretch at a time when Democrats appear to be spreading their influence beyond the traditional Big Three of Baltimore City, MoCo and PG and into Baltimore, Howard and Charles counties. Last Tuesday's results can't be terribly encouraging to a shrewd vote-counter like the former guv.
If you've got other ideas, pass 'em along...








Comments
Kendell Ehrlich
Posted by: Tim | November 11, 2008 2:31 PM
Fabulous suggestion.
Posted by: Andy Green | November 11, 2008 2:33 PM
Kratovil doesn't have a chance for re-election. If Gilchrist had not turned tail and backed him he wouldn't even be there. He will just be another liberal tax and spend Democrat that doesn't properly represent conservative Democrats in his district.
Posted by: George From Pasadena | November 11, 2008 2:33 PM
Unlike George from Pasedena, I think Kratovil's re-election status will likely hinge on whether Obama governs from the center.
If he does, Kratovil is safe, and will have a record to stand on. If the Dems are smart, they will allow Kratovil to author a strong conservation bill to help the Bay or to reseed the crab population.
Nothing like cheap, plentiful crabs to get him reelected.
Terry
Posted by: Terry Mahoney | November 11, 2008 3:22 PM
Yes, If Kratovil stays a moderate centrist with a strong environmental record he can stay in office. Basically he needs to be Gilchrest 2.
Posted by: Jtiger | November 11, 2008 3:32 PM
The Dems put a lot of money into Kratovil's race, and they are not going to let him lose in 2010. He can be counted on to be a lead sponsor of (and get enacted) legislation that protects the Bay, promotes Eastern Shore industries, replenishes the beach in Ocean City, etc; he can also be counted on to be a visible co-sponsor of other general legislation that promotes small business, provides middle class tax cuts, etc etc. Remember, he ran 10+ points ahead of Obama, so if Obama steers a middle course, Kratovil's own pro-Eastern Shore/moderate views will likely get him re-elected.
And for those of you thinking about 2010, keep this in mind: if Kratovil wins in 2010, and if he continues his moderate views after that, he'll probably be able to get re-elected as often as Gilchrist did. Why? Because the Maryland legislature after the 2010 elections will re-draw the 1st District to contain more Dems and fewer Repubs, transferring many of those Repubs to districts with an overwhelming number of Dems.
Some of you may not like this, but Kratovil is an upcoming star in the Dem party who will be around for a long time.
Posted by: JoePlummer | November 11, 2008 3:50 PM
Between the Eastern Shore mental midgets who believe that because Kratovil has lived in their area for ten years he is one of them, and the Amen Kratovil Corner at The Sun, Kratovil needn't worry about re-election.
Posted by: Ellis | November 11, 2008 4:00 PM
Stop whining Republicans. Harris was too conservative for the district. His voting record against the bay killed him. The Club for Growth did not spend their money wisely. Gilchrest would have beat Kratovil 60-40% Ehrlich messed up big time by taking a safe GOP seat and getting Harris to run in the primary because he was mad at Gilchrest. Just because Harris says Kratovil is a liberal does not make him a liberal. Dems will protect him especially after 2010 with reapportionment. You win in the middle because on the left and right is the gutter!
Posted by: PoliticsinMaryland.com | November 11, 2008 4:34 PM
So, you think Kratovil will have an easy time in 2010? Consider this:
-- Kratovil was lucky that his Republican opponent is a lame campaigner with a sad and weak record in Annapolis. If anyone but Harris was the R nominee, Kratovil still has his day job. I am a fairly conservative Republican, and even I view Harris as a joke.
-- Kratovil did not get a majority of votes in his district (which should be a source of concern for him), and he was only elected because of the Libertarian candidate. Those were votes that would have otherwise gone to a Republican.
-- There has been no sea change in the First District, and there is a virtual deadlock between registered Ds and Rs in this district. The district has about 195,000 registered Rs, which only trails the 206,000 in the Sixth District. The district clearly leans to the right, and I believe even McCain won this district handily.
-- Kratovil ran in the right year and took advantage of the Obama/Democrat wave. The stars won't be so aligned in two years, especially after Kratovil is forced to make some tough votes in the Pelosi House.
-- Gilchrest's aggressive support for Kratovil clearly played a role in this year's race, and it is doubtful that Wayne will be so supportive of Kratovil and outspoken next time around.
Posted by: Anonymous | November 11, 2008 5:19 PM
Former Governor Bob signaled to opponents, Lets settle an personal score against a safe Republican moderate in the more conservative GOP primary. Thanks Governor Bob for the free Democratic seat.
Posted by: RCFillmore | November 11, 2008 6:12 PM
Here's a novel idea: Let's see what type of Congressman Frank Kratovil is and vote based on merit and his record.
Posted by: Captive Fan | November 11, 2008 6:21 PM
Gov. Ehrlich must be wondering about his viablity as a future politcal candidate for anything after losing his incumbent Governor position to Martin O'Malley, leading an unsuccessful bid in the primaries for Rudy Guiliani, then McCain (really not much choice there) then ultimately supporting a losing bid on what had been a Republican seat in the 1st Congressional District. Bob Ehrlich's political star seems to be gathering a lot of tarnish lately.
Posted by: jrod | November 11, 2008 7:36 PM
Get over it Republicans. The Republican party is dead in Maryland. Ehrlich better forget about running again.He dosen't carry any weight any longer. Look how he campaigned for Harris. I saw him on 1600 Pennsyvania show on cnbc and he made an ass of himself trying to play with the big boys.
Posted by: Rocco Rotondo | November 11, 2008 7:43 PM
The loss of a GOP seat falls on the pathetic shoulders of Bob L (for loser) Ehrlich. Let's hope this disgusting human being decides to move out of state. With Harris losing that means Al Redmer has to look elsewhere for his political comeback. County Executive?
Posted by: md4palin | November 11, 2008 8:44 PM
This seat flips back in 2010.
I supported Andy Harris, but he had his shot...E.J. Pipkin or Al Redmer take this seat back.
Pipkin would be a nightmare for Kratovil. He is from the same geographic area, is moderate, and could fully fund his campaign.
Redmer is also moderate, from the Western Shore but with long ties to the Shore.
Enjoy your seat while you have it, Frank Kratovil.
Posted by: Liam | November 12, 2008 6:23 AM
At the very least we got rid of the loser Gilchrest and then he showed his true colors
Posted by: Anonymous | November 12, 2008 7:38 AM
Obama/Pelosi/Reid will have nothing to do with Kratovil's re-election bid.
He will have an uphill battle because his name will be under O'Malley's name on the ballot. If O'M doesn't turn things around with regard to his popularity, Kratovil will have to rely on folks from the shore split voting (Republican Gov. vs. Democrat Congressman). Good luck.
Posted by: Ed | November 12, 2008 10:53 AM