Andy Harris up by four in First District: Daily Kos
The campaign manager for Andy Harris is touting a poll published over the weekend by the liberal Daily Kos as evidence that the momentum in the First Congressional District has returned to the conservative Republican. Harris held a 44-40 lead over Democrat Frank Kratovil, which fell within the 5-point margin of error in the survey of 400 likely voters contacted by Olney-based Research 2000 between Oct. 20 and 23. That’s down from the 15-point advantage Republicans claimed after Harris defeated Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest in a divisive primary earlier this year, but it’s an improvement on the two-point edge that a Democratic poll gave Kratovil earlier this month. “When you look at the direction the campaign is heading, people are embracing our message, and that’s what we’re seeing, even in our internal numbers,” Harris campaign manager Chris Meekins said. A number of possible concern to Harris: While he and Kratovil both were viewed favorably by 45 percent of respondents, he was viewed unfavorably by 44 percent. Kratovil was viewed unfavorably by 33 percent.
Daily Kos notes Kratovil’s “geographic advantage” – he lives and works on the Eastern Shore, where more of the district’s population is located – and concludes that he “has a real chance to win this election. "The best numbers for him lie in his favorables, which are superior to Harris'," the web site says. "If a Democrat is likely to win this district anytime soon, it will be Frank Kratovil this year.”
