Uh, about those milestones ....
There was a lot of talk at Mount Vernon on Tuesday about "a new day" dawning in the long struggle to restore Chesapeake Bay, with President Obama declaring the bay a national treasure and states agreeing to short-term pollution reduction plans, aka "milestones." Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, head of the bay Executive Council (pictured at right), called it a "turning point," though he acknowledged there was still a lot of work to do. The cleanup effort now is being ramped up and is going to be much more accountable, we were told.
But take a look at those milestones, at least the two-page summaries handed out to the press and now posted online. They skimp on key details, especially on what the backup plans are in case those measures fall short, and on what the consequences will be if the states blow these new milestones. We'll have to wait for those information gaps to be filled, we were told.
Next, look at the graphs showing how much nitrogen and phosphorus pollution each state promises to eliminate. The graphs start at several million or tens of millions of pounds. not at zero. Had the graphs had a scale that showed how far pollution ultimately has to be reduced by the "end date" of 2025, the divergence between past reductions and future promises would have looked a lot smaller.
Then there's the case of the mysterious missing information on a few of the states' milestone statements. The two-page outlines of cleanup efforts for the entire six-state bay region and for Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia showed graphs with two diverging lines, depicting pollution reductions already in progress and even greater efforts those states were committing to make by 2011. The graphs projected accelerations of cleanup ranging from 52 to 502 percent.
But the summaries handed out Tuesday for Delaware, the District of Columbia, New York and West Virginia showed only one line on their graphs. Each graph depicted the pollution reductions that were being pledged through 2011. Missing was any line projecting the rate at which pollution would go down based on efforts already under way.
Drafts of the milestone documents circulated only a few days before Tuesday's summit did show current and future rates of cleanup. The District, New York and West Virginia all were shown making less progress in the next few years than they had been making up to now. That's right - negative progress. For New York, the drafts showed a 15 percent backslide on the rate of nitrogen reductions, and for West Virginia a 61 percent slippage in nitrogen and a 45 percent decline in phosphorus removal rates.
The graph lines and calculations showing negative progress were missing from the final milestone documents handed out Tuesday at Mount Vernon. What would George Washington think?
Richard Batiuk, associate director of EPA's Chesapeake Bay office, says there was no attempt to skirt inconvenient truths or to hide lack of progress. The drafts were based on incomplete and potentially misleading data, he says.
Delaware, New York and West Virginia had not been tracking their pollution reductions as long as other bay states, and the few years' information available showed very sharp drops in nitrogen and phosphorus. The past reductions might not have been as steep had they been averaged over as many years as other states' efforts were. So Batiuk said in the interests of consistency, EPA elected to leave out information that was not strictly comparable - not because it showed negative progress. All have pledged to step up their efforts, he says.
The District milestone is another story. DC already has met its goal for reducing phosphorus, as the final public document points out. But the amount of nitrogen the nation's capital dumps into the Potomac River will actually increase for a few years while the huge Blue Plains sewage treatment plant is being upgraded. The District will curtail its flow of nitrogen dramatically once the sewage plant overhaul is finished, but that's not expected to happen until the next milestone period kicks in, around 2011 to 2013. (And that, of course, assumes that the federal, state and local governments will come up with the hefty $1 billion pricetag needed to fix up Blue Plains).
"They're recognizing they've got a milestone they're not going to meet in this time period," says Batiuk.
Sort of. It's explained in a footnote on the handout (except the bit about the funding needed). But there's no graph line showing the expected increase in nitrogen loads. In the interest of transparency, why not show clearly in the graph and the text that there'll be a bit of backsliding and delay in reaching the first milestone for the District?
All this might be considered quibbling, except this cleanup effort has been criticized before for painting too rosy a picture of the progress being made. In the past 26 years, the states and federal government have blown one deadline for cleaning up the bay, and they acknowledge there's no way they'll meet their second one next year. That's why EPA and the states set up the two-year milestones and promised to be more upfront and accountable from here on out.
"We've got to be more transparent about .. what's being done and what's to be done,'' says Batiuk.
Meanwhile, it's worth pointing out that while Maryland officials like to tout the Old Line State as a leader of the bay cleanup effort, the unsung hero in the battle is - or will be - Pennsyvlania. Of the 16.6 million additional pounds of nitrogen that all the "partners" in the bay cleanup have collectively pledged to remove from rivers and streams in the next few years, Pennsylvania is promising to take care of 7.3 million pounds, or nearly half.
Of course, Pennsylvania is also the heavy, responsible for nearly 40 percent of all the nitrogen getting into the bay, more than any other state. Still, it's worth acknowledging its leaders have agreed to shoulder the biggest task - no small thing, considering Pennsylvanians aren't as connected physically or culturally to the bay as we are here in Maryland.


Comments
Tim, your response is "right on." Just when things look like they're improving on environmental challenges, a closer look makes us doubting Thomases. Good intentions and good results are vastly different--as I stated on my blog (http://easygreener.blogspot.com) as well.
I'm heading out on the Chesapeake for a 5-week sail (just going where the wind takes us) and I hope to post a few positive happenings.
Posted by: Mary Ann Moxon | May 17, 2009 3:19 PM