Drought, melting arctic ice: Abrupt climate change on way?
Coming soon to a warming planet near you? A new report from the US Climate Change Science Program concludes that "rapid and sustained September arctic ice loss is likely" in this century, and that the southwestern United States already may be entering a sudden shift into increased drought.
In an assessment led by the U.S. Geological Survey, a team of federal and academic scientists found evidence that some abrupt changes in climate are likely or may be happening. They reviewed published research, which was based both on computer climate models and observations in the field. In this case, "abrupt" means something that could occur in the matter of several decades or less, and could significantly disrupt nature and human activities.
(The above photos, not part of the report, depict the retreat of ice at Muir Inlet in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve in Alaska. The picture at left was taken in 1892; the one at right, 2005. Photos by the USGS' Bruce Molnia.)
The report finds "no clear evidence" of human-induced climate change in the amount of rain and snow in North America. But recent climate modeling indicates drying is likely to intensify in the subtropics and spread north into the U.S. Southwest, increasing the chances of severe drought there. If the models are right, the report adds, the drying may already have begun - though it's hard to be sure given wide natural swings in climate in that region.
Among the report's other findings:
The northward flow of warm water in the Atlantic Ocean is likely to weaken significantly, the report says, but not enough to collapse by century's end. So no need to hunker down for another ice age, a la "The Day After Tomorrow."
Relatively rapid rise in sea level is possible, but still hard to predict based on current climate modeling. Scientists noted sea level rise from melting glaciers and ice sheets has accelerated in Greenland and Antarctica, but said they couldn't tell whether the changes were "a short-term natural adjustment or a response to recent climate change."
It's unliikely that rising temperatures will trigger a catastrophic release of methane into the atmosphere, but the rate at which the powerful greenhouse gas escapes from the sea floor, permafrost and wetlands is likely to increase, potentially accelerating the planet's warming.
Naturally enough, the report's authors call for further research to reduce the uncertainties about such troubling prospects. But its findings, hedged as they are, are likely to add to the pressure on the incoming Obama administration and Congress to craft new policy responses.
I report on the environment and Chesapeake Bay. A native of West Virginia, I have focused mainly on Maryland's environment since moving here in 1983. Along the way, I've crewed aboard a skipjack in the bay, canoed under city streets up the Jones Fall from the Inner Harbor, and gone deep underground in a western Maryland coal mine. Recently, I have been covering the growth and development transforming the landscape. I love seafood, rambles in the country and good stories. I hope to share some here.
Comments
What a bunch of bs and speculation. Not one real fact, just what ifs and "the report finds no real evidence". These people should become ghost busters. I bet these people were paid for this crap from tax payer money. There is no such thing as consensus in science. It must be a proven scientific fact, a theory or a hypothesis to be tested. We don’t vote; we do reproducible experiments and research. The proponents of global warming base everything on their models, which when given 1960 data cannot predict today’s temperatures. They have created a phony money machine.
Posted by: Bobis cold | December 17, 2008 8:03 PM
Soon ecosystems will not be able to adapt to the rate of warming, causing ecosystem collapse and abrupt climate change:
"We underestimated the damage associated with temperature increases, and we underestimated the probability of temperature increases'" --Nick Stern on his own 2006 report on the economics
"Few seem to realise that the present IPCC models predict almost unanimously that by 2040 the average summer in Europe will be as hot as the summer of 2003 when over 30,000 died from heat. By then we may cool ourselves with air conditioning and learn to live in a climate no worse than that of Baghdad now. But without extensive irrigation the plants will die and both farming and natural ecosystems will be replaced by scrub and desert. What will there be to eat? The same dire changes will affect the rest of the world and I can envisage Americans migrating into Canada and the Chinese into Siberia but there may be little food for any of them." --Dr James Lovelock's lecture to the Royal Society, 29 Oct. '07
'Leemans and Eickhout (2004) found that adaptive capacity decreases rapidly with an increasing rate of climate change. Their study finds that five percent of all ecosystems cannot adapt more quickly than 0.1 C per decade over time. Forests will be among the ecosystems to experience problems first because their ability to migrate to stay within the climate zone they are adapted to is limited. If the rate is 0.3 C per decade, 15 percent of ecosystems will not be able to adapt. If the rate should exceed 0.4 C per decade, all ecosystems will be quickly destroyed, opportunistic species will dominate, and the breakdown of biological material will lead to even greater emissions of CO2. This will in turn increase the rate of warming' --Leemans and Eickhout (2004), 'Another reason for concern: regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change,' Global Environmental Change 14, 219–228
'There is no linear predictability in terms of how ecosystems respond. The phenomena of collapse is one that we have under-appreciated, partly because of the feed-back mechanisms that we are still trying to understand.' --Achim Steiner, head of the UN Environment Programme, Oct. '07
Posted by: Brad Arnold | December 18, 2008 12:22 AM
Bobis cold:
Agree with your statement totally. A bunch of bs based on computer generated models and a lot of what ifs. Phony science to justify the expenditure of large sums of taxpayer money.
Posted by: Dan | December 19, 2008 8:14 AM
It is interesting that the report claims "recent climate modeling indicates drying is likely to intensify in the subtropics and spread north into the U.S. Southwest, increasing the chances of severe drought there." Global precipitation has increased during the global warming of the 20th century, as has global soil moisture.
When computer programs fail to accurately replicate past and present real-world conditions, why should we assign any credibility to their future predictions? Garbage in, garbage out.
Posted by: James M. Taylor | December 19, 2008 6:15 PM
Actually, if you read the report its not bs. Real measurements, real data, real climate change. Folks, its already happening in the arctic. Oh, its cold out? Well look up the definitions of weather and climate in the dictionary. Weather is whats happening today. Climate is what's happening on 10,000 todays, on average.
Posted by: paul | December 21, 2008 3:11 PM
. Don J. Easterbrook, Ph.D., emeritus professor of geology at Western Washington University, asked, "What does it take to ignore 10 years of global cooling, sharply declining temperatures the last couple of years, record setting lack of sun spots . . . failure of computer models to predict real climate, predictable warming and cooling climates for the past 500 years. The answer is really quite simple — just follow the money!" !" I worked with geologists for many years reconstructing paleoclimates from lake cores. Those of us whom make our money from honest science are appalled at how the charlatans and conmen are hustling the system so the politicians can claim more of our liberty to fight a problem that does not exist. The greenies had to invent CO2 induced global warming to continue to hold our economies and freedoms hostage. These people are the reformed Marxists of the 60s and 70s. When that religion was discredited, they took over the environmental movement. Brad don't swallow the koolaid these jerks are selling. The UN would not know science if it walked up and bit them.
Posted by: Bobiscold | December 22, 2008 3:29 PM
global warming is a scam,al gore is in it for the money and to weaken america ,its the sun stupid.
Posted by: frosty the snow man | December 28, 2008 2:51 PM
Do you want facts only?
Well, then we should stop thinking on climate change... It does not mean that climate change does not exist, BUT only that climate change is a very difficult issue.
In the same idea, it does not mean that we should refrain from acting but that we should act with a cautious and in depth approach.
Selling CO2 emissions rights is obviously not a good idea since we are not sure that the money will help to reduce CO2 gases (we shall have to pay for the banks involves on those markets). But obliging companies to be innovative in the reduction of CO2 emissions ( see the movie: http://fr.youtube.com/watch?v=b1kf_axslfk), is something good for all of us, especially if we want to reduce our consumption of oil....
Posted by: Luke | January 5, 2009 10:12 AM