Peak Oil and Hunger
Diesel farming feeds the world. But what happens if the fuel becomes too expensive for the farmers?
Listen in to WYPR 88.1 FM public radio in Baltimore tomorrow morning (Wednesday, July 23) at 9:35 a.m. to hear my most recent "Environment in Focus" program. If you're not next to your radio, or you miss the segment, you can listen to a podcast on the WYPR web site.
Tomorrow's piece is about "peak oil" and world hunger. Back in the 1950's, Shell Oil's top petroleum geologist, M. King Hubbert, discovered that all oil production follows a bell curve, with a rising amount of new discovery of oil fields, a peak and then an inevitable decline. He correctly predicted years in advance that America's lower 48 states, then the world's largest producer of oil, would pass its peak production in 1970. And since then, 33 of the world's 48 largest producers of oil have also passed their peak, including perhaps Saudi Arabia. That means production will start slowly declining (some say the world passed its peak in 2005, others say 2015). Meanwhile, the world's population continues to grow -- and developing nations like China and India are buying more cars and trying to live American lifestyles.
The result of falling production and soaring demand will be continually soaring gasoline and diesel prices, according to researchers including Dr. Brian Schwartz and Dr. Cindy Parker of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Because so much of the world's food production is dependent on petroleum, this price acceleration could spark a collapse of our agricultural system -- and the starvation of millions of people, Schwartz and Parker warn. The professors say governments need to start planning for declining oil production as a possible public health and environmental crisis, just as they prepare for other worst-case scenarios like nuclear war and epidemics.
In the piece, I also interview a Maryland farmer about his operation's dependence on oil. We discuss how many manual laborers it would take to work his farm (hundreds) if he didn't have diesel-powered tractors and combines.
The picture above (by Sun photographer Glenn Fawcett) shows Baltimore County farmer Edward Stanfield using a diesel-powered tractor on his 600 acre farm. The Stanfield family had to plant less corn this year because the cost of petroleum-based fertilizers doubled and diesel fuel prices spiked.
I report on the environment and Chesapeake Bay. A native of West Virginia, I have focused mainly on Maryland's environment since moving here in 1983. Along the way, I've crewed aboard a skipjack in the bay, canoed under city streets up the Jones Fall from the Inner Harbor, and gone deep underground in a western Maryland coal mine. Recently, I have been covering the growth and development transforming the landscape. I love seafood, rambles in the country and good stories. I hope to share some here.
Comments
Price of energy is the foundation of any product produced, whether it's crops, fish caught by a trawler or a finished end product like a faucet. Increases in the price of energy must be offset by price increases of the product, however if that increase is too high for the end user, then reduced demand for the product could spell the end of that business.
As we descend on the other side of peak oil, or remain at this plateau of production while demand continues to rise to meet supply, due to an increasing population and economic expansion, price of energy (oil) will continue to rise. This dynamic will increase the price of products, in particular food, to prices the lowest income producers cannot afford, and work its way up through higher socio economic levels as oil continues to deplete. The result would be catastrophic, possibly leading to regional and international wars.
That's why its imperative to begin a transition to alternative forms of energy production. Electrical grids must be installed to provide connection opportunities for businesses to hook up wind and solar. Houses must be fitted with solar and transport must transition to electric/hybrid.
We must reduce our dependence on oil, a finite energy source that has peaked or soon will. In a sense, we have waited too long. However, a concerted worldwide effort could still avert the worst possible consequences of post peak oil famine and wars.
Posted by: C. Parker | July 23, 2008 3:54 AM
Picked up your piece from the oildrum.com . Just my opinion, but the worlds gov'ts are about 50 years too late to start the planning process that Schwartz and Parker mention.
Your article is one of many local articles from around the world I've read in the past couple years that can't seem to get outside of your own county and see the bigger picture. That's ok and expected, but it tends to give the locals the idea that what's going on can somehow be "fixed". It won't be fixed. At least not in a way that includes most of the global population. In the last hundred years we have gone from slightly over 1 billion to nearly 7 billion solely because of oil and other fossil fuels. Those are going away, and there are no viable replacements. Logic says we go back to 1 billion people.
Posted by: 6ftrabbit | July 23, 2008 8:52 AM
Research will show that farmers have destroyed our waterways and are spreading Breast Cancer throughout the country. Why areare lawmakers turning there heads to these problems. Farmers dont pay taxes and they dont pay taxes on fuel either. They receive subsidies and trillions of taxdollars to cleanup the bay etc. which only got worse if that possible. Agriculture is out of control and they are abusing chemicals in which the stocks of the makers are sky high. Farmers only pay about twenty percent in income tax and coverup the rest. Maybe we have to plow up our yards and plant cancer free vegetables and fruits. One lawmaker is banning plastic baby bottles in California because of a chemical while Congress lets pesticides and herbicides in baby food. Farmers have to be jailed for there crimes and farmers belong in the fields not in Congress etc . because they only take care of themselves. The bay and well here in Pa. is the same DNA.
Posted by: Dennis | August 13, 2008 11:49 AM