Calculating Baltimore's graduation rate
America's Promise Alliance, the collaborative founded by Colin and Alma Powell to improve the well-being of youth, has a new report out today with the on-time high school graduation rates in the nation's 50 largest cities. In Baltimore, the rate increased 7.7 points over a decade, from 33.8 percent in 1995 to 41.5 percent in 2005. We placed 46th out of 50 and were one of 16 city districts where the rate was calculated at below 50 percent. Suburban Baltimore schools were found to have a graduation rate 39 points higher than the city's, making us one of the regions with the largest gaps.
The report, called "Cities in Crisis 2009," did its calculations slightly differently than the oft-cited Education Week rankings, but for Baltimore the results are about the same -- and far lower than the city's official graduation rate as reported by the state: 62.6 percent in 2008 and 59 percent in 2005. The state rate is likely an overstatement because some dropouts are not officially recorded as such. But both the America's Promise and Ed Week calculations make things look worse than they are because they don't account for students moving in and out of the city.
And none of the calculations look beyond a four-year rate. I find this curious, as we judge colleges based on the number of students they graduate within six years and what matters ultimately is whether someone gets a high school diploma -- not how long it takes. Typically, about 20 percent of seniors in Baltimore need a fifth year to finish. In fighting to maintain the HSA requirements for this year's seniors, Dr. Alonso argued that he'll keep them around as long as it takes to get them to meet basic standards. (Students are legally entitled to stay in school until age 21.)
With all that said, here are more findings of the America's Promise report:
The cities that saw the biggest jump in their graduation rates are Philadelphia and Tuscon (23 percentage points each), Kansas City, Mo. (20 points) and El Paso (14). Portland, Ore., and NYC went up 13 points. Nineteen of the nation's 50 biggest cities have seen their graduation rates decline in the decade measured, with the biggest drops in Las Vegas (23 points), Wichita (18) and Omaha (15).
The report estimates that about 1.2 million students drop out of high school each year. That's 7,000 per school day or one every 26 seconds. Nearly half of African-American and Hispanic students don't finish high school on time. The median income for high school dropouts is $14,000, compared with $24,000 for high school graduates and $48,000 for college graduates.
As for the different methodologies:
America's Promise calculates the graduation rate by looking at the promotion rate for freshmen, sophomores and juniors plus the graduation rate for seniors in a given year.
Ed Week looks at the number of seniors graduating compared with the number of freshmen four years earlier.
The state divides the number of 12th-grade graduates by the number of 12th-grade graduates plus the number of dropouts along the way. While Maryland is one of a number of states that will start giving students unique identification numbers to track them, and therefore produce more accurate graduation rates, those ID numbers can't be used when students move across state lines.
Categories: Around the Nation, Baltimore City
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Comments
I think its said that we are worried about how it is calculated! Students in the city are not graduating at a rate far lower than the state. Does it matter how it is calculated? We are in a crisis and need to take responsibility. What is worse about the rate is the fact that grades are changed and/or some students are just passed along to graduation. Our numbers should be even lower!!! Stop catering and start holding people accountable. It wont matter what calculations we use then!
Posted by: concerned teacher | April 22, 2009 1:24 PM
Just wait-- AAA and crew will let all Seniors who have completed the HSA (or bridge) graduate, regardless of whether they've completed courses. Grades will be changed. Pressure is on HS Principals already...
Somebody should try to get AAA to go on record about this...
Posted by: Teacher | April 22, 2009 4:59 PM
@ concerned teacher
HOW graduation rates are calculated are absolutely of vital importance. Let's put aside the importance of data that accurately reflects reality rather than giving a distorted picture and look at some other points:
1. For all of these organizations - including the state - being unable to track/calculate students who move out of state is unfortunate because we miss an opportunity to use another data set to evaluate performance. First off, many teachers in the city will tell you that transient student movement within City Schools themselves often create problems for students as they move from school to school, both with credits and the order of material covered, not to mention the emotional stress of changing schools mid-year or mid-high school. How much more so for students who move to another state? Second, knowing the graduation rates for students who move out of state could give a good indication of how well our students are being prepared in comparison to other school districts. If every student who moves to another state is woefully unprepared for their new school and doesn't graduate - or let's say for example, they do really well in Math but not English in their new schools - then that tells us something important about how we're doing.
2. Perhaps more importantly, how these rates are calculated affects the policies of schools and districts. As Sara was mentioning earlier (http://tr.im/iS43), when all of these published statistics only take into account 4-year graduation rates - even though students are legally allowed to stay in school until they're 21 - the incentive for the district or individual schools to put money into alternative paths to graduation is not there. Across the city, there are probably hundreds of students would could benefit from taking 6 years to finish high school so they could work or take care of family part time during the day, but those programs don't exist precisely because as soon as those programs start, for two years the "dropout" rate will skyrocket (or the graduation rate will plummet, however you want to say it) under EdWeek's calculation method, even though those students are still in school. By using these restrictive methods for calculating graduation rates, it actually affects the kinds of services schools are willing to provide for students.
You're right on one front, however: the rates are too low no matter which of these methods are used. But they'll never get better if we don't make a commitment to using truly accurate data.
Posted by: Simon | April 22, 2009 9:21 PM
@ concerned teacher
And another thing (or two)...you call for more responsibility and accountability and after a few re-readings of your comment, I assume that means holding students responsible if they fail the HSA or their classes. But this responsibility and accountability also has to exist at the school leadership level, too, and at some point, adults have to be held accountable for failing students and failing schools, too.
Cynics like Teacher up there assume "putting pressure" on principals has to be a bad thing because it necessarily implies that principals/teachers will end up changing grades. I'm not so naive to think this doesn't happen - we all have our horror stories, no need to recap - but I think that school leaders SHOULD feel pressure to get their students to achieve. We need to be measuring the success and failure of students/teachers/principals/schools/districts all the time and AAA wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't "pressure" principals to do better. Let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater here; just because some unscrupulous people cave to pressure and cover up the fact that they're doing a bad job at producing successful students doesn't mean we have to get rid of bosses telling employees to build a better mousetrap. Sorry for all the mixed metaphors at the end there.
Lastly, accusing Dr. Alonso or anyone else of explicitly instructing principals to fudge numbers is a strong accusation and not one to be thrown around lightly and it does everyone working in City Schools a disservice to inappropriately and inaccurately make these claims; it especially hurts the students who EARN their degrees by casting a shadow of doubt over their accomplishments. Please try to be more responsible with your comments in the future.
Posted by: Simon | April 22, 2009 9:43 PM
Teacher: I asked Dr. Alonso this morning about what direction he's giving to principals regarding students who have met HSA but not course requirements. His response: "No one should be doing anything that is not by the book. If a kid hasn't completed credits, they shouldn't graduate."
Posted by: Sara Neufeld | April 24, 2009 11:17 AM