Dixon drops the ball on dropouts
Isn't it a mayor's job to make her city look better than it is?
Apparently not yesterday for Sheila Dixon, who made a pretty big error in reference to Baltimore's high school dropout rate.
The mayor delivered prepared remarks at the city's annual Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial Breakfast at the Baltimore Convention Center. In questioning how much progress Baltimore has made since King's assassination in 1968, she cited a litany of statistics about the homicide rate, the HIV infection rate and, naturally, the high school dropout rate. According to my colleague Nick Madigan, who was in attendance, Dixon said that the city has a 70 percent dropout rate for African-American students.
Say what?
The city's official dropout rate for African-Americans, as reported to the Maryland State Department of Education, is 11 percent. Now, that figure is probably a serious underestimation: It includes only the kids who are known to have dropped out after age 16. Kids who drop out before 16 are considered "truants," not dropouts. And those who don't report dropping out -- and therefore could conceivably have moved and enrolled in another school -- also aren't counted. But still. The number is not 70 percent.
The city's official graduation rate for African-Americans -- which, again, may be rosier than reality -- is 60 percent. A recent presentation by schools chief Andres Alonso said that about five in 10 kids who enter city high schools don't graduate.
I asked Sterling Clifford, a spokesman for the mayor, where she'd gotten her figures. "I think she remembered incorrectly," he said in an e-mail reply.
Baltimoresun.com's 
Comments
She remembered incorrectly... on paper... that was very likely handled by advisors... and delivered to a large crowd... in her home city.
While I doubt the blunder was intentional, I regret to report that it doesn't give me great faith for Baltimore in general.
Posted by: steegness | January 16, 2008 12:49 PM
EducationWeek released a report last year showing that only 34.6% of Baltimore city 9th graders complete high school over the next four years. That means about 65% do not. It is conceivable that this figure is 70% non-graduation among African-Americans. While non-graduation is not the same as dropping out, the figure Dixon mentions is indeed reasonable, and not in need of the incredulity expressed here. Certainly it is much more realistic in terms of accurately describing the situation than the 11% dropout rate you cite.
As references for these statistics, an earlier version of the EducationWeek data is here, while a Washington Times report of the more recent, 2007 report is here.
Posted by: Nick | January 16, 2008 7:22 PM
Part of the issue is what one means by dropout rate. The 11% figure is more than likely an annual rate, meaning that each year 11% drop out. If you play that out, after 4 years you end up with only 62% of your kids still in school after four years. Many of these kids are not yet ready to graduate after four years, leading to figures like the one showing that only 34.6% of baltimore city kids graduate after 4 years.
Posted by: Eric | January 17, 2008 9:20 AM
Well....I didn't vote for her. This is primarily the reason why. Not being the most refined person in the way of public speaking, Sheila Dixon has always represented a turkey that is cooked but not quite brown. She may be experienced in many ways but electing her as mayor was premature.
Posted by: Michele | January 18, 2008 4:40 PM