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June 13, 2011

District-by-district crime statistics - Week 22

Here's a look at unofficial Baltimore city crime statistics through June 4, as they are presented each week at the department's Comstat meetings. Notably, rapes are up 64 percent (though this is likely more reflective of new classification procedures than an uptick in actual incidents), though rape arrests are also up to the tune of 138 percent (69 arrests this year compared with 29 at this time last year). Shootings, meanwhile, are up 13 percent, particularly in the Eastern District, which has been hammered with 36 shootings this year compared with only 13 last year. 

Exsum Spreadsheet Wk 22-11
Posted by Justin Fenton at 5:56 PM | | Comments (2)
Categories: East Baltimore, Top brass
        

Comments

Rape is an oddball crime to classify. It's definition is a moving target, the National Crime Victimization Survey defines it one way, and we find several other surveys like the Sexual Victimization of College Women survey defines it another way. Plus you have to factor in that a percentage of rape claims are going to be false. As far as the NCVS is concerned, once you get into the underbelly of how the Justice Department conducts crime surveys and how they interpret answers, we find that up is down, black is white and nothing is absolutely clear. What a mess.

It fascinates the crap out of me how "statisticians" don't use at least one correct and MEANINGFUL measure in all these stats - basically these numbers are _meaningless_ when looking at change when it doesn't include RATES - there is no "calculable risk" unless figures are out into rates. And both over and underinflation stupidly happens when you use percents - i.e. last year no murders in a neighborhood - and BOOM one dead person = 100% increase. Um, no. I mean seriously who HIRES these people? And yes, I do understand the legitimate meaning of whole numbers - but we're not talking "Crime Map" counts here, we're talking about ANALYSES of progress or failure not just snap shots of what was, and what is, without context. Ugh. If it was my student the 'F' for homework needs improvement.

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About Peter Hermann
Peter Hermann started covering news for The Baltimore Sun in 1990, first in Anne Arundel County and, starting in 1994, reporting on the Baltimore Police Department. In 2001, he was assigned to Jerusalem as the Baltimore Sun's Middle East correspondent. He returned in 2005 as an assistant city editor overseeing crime coverage. In 2008, Peter returned to the beat as a daily reporter and blogger. A recent BBC report featured him in a segment on the harsh realities of covering crime in Baltimore.

Coverage will focus on crime trends, problems in neighborhoods in the city and elsewhere, profiles of victims and police officers and try to offer readers a fresh perspective on one of the most vexing issues facing Baltimore and its future.



Contributing to this blog is Justin Fenton, who joined The Sun in 2005 and has covered the Baltimore City Police Department and the criminal justice system since 2008. His work includes an investigation into Cal Ripken Jr.’s minor league baseball stadium deal with his hometown of Aberdeen, a three-part series chronicling a ruthless con woman, coverage of the killing of five Amish children at a schoolhouse in Nickel Mines, Pa., and a job swap with a British crime reporter to explore differences in crime-fighting. A special report looking into how city police handle rape cases led to sweeping reforms that changed the way sexual assaults are investigated in Baltimore. He was recognized as the best reporter in Baltimore by the City Paper in 2010 and by Baltimore Magazine in 2011.
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