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February 11, 2010

Does crime fall when it snows? Part II

Earlier this week we posed the question of how weather affects crime patterns. Police said they saw more domestic incidents in relation to their total call volume, but domestic complaints had actually dropped last weekend instead of increasing as people were forced into close quarters for long periods of time. Meanwhile, homicides and violent crime seemingly continued unabated, with two killings and at least one non-fatal stabbing just off the Block, Baltimore's adult entertainment hub. The prior 20-inch snowfall in December saw four homicides.

The blizzard that struck the area of Tuesday and Wednesday, however, was a different story.

Police Commissioner Frederick H. Bealefeld III just said at a city news conference that the most serious calls handled by police over the past day were two street robberies and a commercial burglary, reports Peter Hermann. We're also looking into an incident in which police used a Taser on a man at Light Streets and Key Highway early Wednesday afternoon, but for the most part it sounds like things were peaceful.

"In the entire city, this is, like, incredible," Bealefeld said.

I just got a return phone call from Ellen G. Cohn, a researcher at Florida International University, who has extensively studied the effects of weather on crime and who I reached out to earlier this week for the aforementioned story. She said that the only variable with a consistent relationship to crime is temperature, saying crime rises with heat up to a certain point, "when the need to escape the heat becomes more important than the need to beat up the person that insulted you." She cited three elements needed for crime: a motivated offender, a suitable target, and absence of a capable guardian. "Snow makes it very difficult to get those three things in one place," she said. But it might also drive crime as a reaction to the stress and strain of the extreme conditions, Cohn said.

Posted by Justin Fenton at 1:40 PM | | Comments (0)
Categories: Confronting crime
        

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About Peter Hermann
Peter Hermann started covering news for The Baltimore Sun in 1990, first in Anne Arundel County and, starting in 1994, reporting on the Baltimore Police Department. In 2001, he was assigned to Jerusalem as the Baltimore Sun's Middle East correspondent. He returned in 2005 as an assistant city editor overseeing crime coverage. In 2008, Peter returned to the beat as a daily reporter and blogger. A recent BBC report featured him in a segment on the harsh realities of covering crime in Baltimore.

Coverage will focus on crime trends, problems in neighborhoods in the city and elsewhere, profiles of victims and police officers and try to offer readers a fresh perspective on one of the most vexing issues facing Baltimore and its future.



Contributing to this blog is Justin Fenton, who joined The Sun in 2005 and has covered the Baltimore City Police Department and the criminal justice system since 2008. His work includes an investigation into Cal Ripken Jr.’s minor league baseball stadium deal with his hometown of Aberdeen, a three-part series chronicling a ruthless con woman, coverage of the killing of five Amish children at a schoolhouse in Nickel Mines, Pa., and a job swap with a British crime reporter to explore differences in crime-fighting. A special report looking into how city police handle rape cases led to sweeping reforms that changed the way sexual assaults are investigated in Baltimore. He was recognized as the best reporter in Baltimore by the City Paper in 2010 and by Baltimore Magazine in 2011.
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