Are you buying less diapers or trading down to cut costs?

A recent story by the Wall Street Journal points out that the volume of diapers sold in the U.S. fell 1 percent in the four weeks ending Sept. 4 from a year earlier.

Here's an excerpt:

Dollar sales fell nearly 3 percent, indicating parents are both cutting back and trading down to cheaper private labels.

Dollar sales of diapers in the four weeks fell 4 percent at Huggies maker Kimberly-Clark Corp. Procter & Gamble, maker of Pampers and Luvs, saw dollar sales drop 2.5 percent. Even generics were down, with sales of private-label diapers slipping 0.5 percent.

Consumer Edge Research analyst Javier Escalante says "this has never happened in this country before -- this is a very rare circumstance," and adds that the fact that people are having fewer babies is itself a strong indicator that the economy is influencing parental behavior. "That's a huge decision," says Escalante.

The WSJ makes an interesting connection between slowing diaper sales and the uptick in diaper rash ointment purchases. Analysts and pediatricians tell the paper that "the higher sales likely reflect either less frequent changes or a shift to lower quality diapers."

If you keep reading, you'll discover the fine print:

Still, there are reasons to approach the data cautiously. The U.S. birth rate has declined since 2007, and it isn't clear how much of the drop in diaper buying is due to penny pinching and how much results from fewer kids. Changing technology -- more absorbent diapers, for example -- also make comparisons difficult. Finally, the cohort being surveyed is always changing because parents buy diapers for a few years and then move on.

Okay. Given that the data seems squishy and the reasons for the sales decline unclear, does the story seem odd to you?

Maybe I missed it, but the story doesn't mention that parents are using cloth diapers, which could account for lesser sales.

What do you think?