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March 10, 2009

Will restaurants reap the benefits of recession fatigue?

A restaurant analyst believes that sooner rather than later consumers who still have disposable income will develop recession fatigue, and going out to eat will be the escape they turn to. This according to Nation's Restaurant News, a trade newsletter. ...

"'The good news for the restaurant industry is that consumers typically get hungry about every four to five hours, generally three times a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year,' [Bob Derrington, a securities analyst at Morgan Keegan & Co.] said. 'While consumers’ budgetary constraints have forced some to make do with less, it’s the systemic underlying demand that the restaurant industry serves which has and, we believe, will keep the industry’s chains active, [relatively] vibrant and ultimately profitable.'

"Derrington conceded that the industry is not nearly as robust as it once was — even a year ago — but it is still performing at higher levels than other consumer sectors."

Whistling in the dark or a legitimate point?

Discuss.

Posted by Elizabeth Large at 11:45 AM | | Comments (18)
        

Comments

Feeling a little verklempt, EL?

I really don't want to get into this rational choice theory/Gary Becker/Chicago School stuff again. My thoughts on this are well known to my ex-gf who I will call Misguided Microecon Theory Girl. She subscribes to the theory that people's behavior can be predicted by their rational choices. Of course my theory is that what makes us human and interesting are the choices we make that cannot be predicted by a model of rational economic choice.

I ate four oranges for brunchfest. Is that rational? I made a choice to do it. Given the same choices and information perhaps you would have eaten zero oranges. So who is more rational? How can you have valid choices that are also mutally exclusive?

The demand for restaurants is not the same as the demand for food.

Disagree. People will stay at home more. So carryout/ delivery places do better, but sit downs do worse.

I think EL enjoys when I start sputtering madly about economics, psychology and philosophy. I know it. Before my head starts spinning around here is a poem by economist Guy Judge, né Guido Giaccomopasghetti [not really] and likely to be the only econometric poem on topic today.

_______________________________________

We Are the Disturbances

We are the disturbances
You can’t see us but you know we are there
Stochastic, homoskedastic, independent and normal
We must be specified with great care.

We must be added to your expectation
To make the model complete
And although we are mostly small
We are spread about with two tails but no feet.

It's my fondest hope to get you started. EL

I think its a legitimate point, to a point. People who like to dine out are going to continue to dine out, perhaps less frequently and make smarter choices about where they dine.

People who go out to eat have a certain number of restuarants they like and will continue to patronize them, as long as the restaurant continues to satisfy.

A restaurant that has good food and great service at affordable prices will thrive, or at least I hope so.

I don't think the question can be examined if one assumes that people all behave the same. First I would divide people into those who live to eat and those who eat to live. Of course both urges can live in the same person.

It's become a running joke between hubby and I. As soon as we step into a restaurant and see the crowds, we look at each other and say "what recession?" No matter where we eat lately, it's packed.

We ate at a nice restaurant Friday night and it was crowded; waited 10 minutes for a table Saturday for lunch at a casual deli/cafe. There are a few restaurants in Philly we've been wanting to drive up to check out-3 month wait for a Saturday night reservation !!

We still go out to eat, but we've started mainly going to just 1 or 2 places over and over again... the places we couldn't bear to have close on us. It's part "we're all in this together" and part "I know what it will cost to eat here..."

So I guess that means it will be a while before we try a bunch of new restaurants, but it's the ones close to my house that I'm desperate to keep open.

I'm fatigued from writing/reading about these recession trend stories. Trend stories will be the death of us, EL.

It depends. If you are low income, you already aren't going out much, because the recession has been in your world for a long time. If you are upper income, you probably haven't been affected, as the layoffs are just starting around here.

Sam, I think you should do a story on how trend stories are trending towards jumping the shark.

I think reporters being tired of trend stories is the new trend.

Newer trend – no reporting, just anagrams:

In this economy = Itch my onion

I
sometimes think the success of our sport's teams have more to do with business than the recession.

When the Ravens made the playoffs this year, a lot of Federal Hill restaurants and bars did very well. Unfortunately the same can't be said about the Terps or the Orioles. It's been a long time since the Orioles have had a winning team to help energize the city during the summertime.

Maybe somebody should open a place that supports winning teams and maybe that could help business year round;)

Yea Jason...like maybe someone should open a Red Sox bar in Baltimore...

like maybe someone should open a Red Sox bar in Baltimore

Why not? We already have a Republican bar, after all.

Red Sox bar in Baltimore, what a great idea. I don't know!

The Terps are going to the dance after all. Cinderella is going to the ball and the bars should benefit (at least one night...)

oh, and Go Terps! Fear the turtle!

Yes, things are looking up in my household. EL

And this morning, a female reporter on WJZ told us that Coach Jerry Williams.....

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About this blog
Richard Gorelick was appointed The Baltimore Sun's restaurant critic in September 2010. Before joining the paper staff fulltime, he contributed freelance criticism and features articles about food to area and regional publications. Along the way, he dispatched for short-distance trucking companies, shilled for cultural non-profits, and assisted in cognitive neurology research – never the subject, always the control.

He takes restaurants seriously but not himself, and his favorite restaurant is the one you love, too.
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