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March 20, 2008

The bread shortage

RestaurantBread.jpg
 
I got this rather depressing e-mail from Federal Hill Jim today:
 
I read recently that prices of wheat and wheat products have risen sharply because of a world wide shortage. Regi's has stopped serving bread except on request and for a price. Bet other restaurants are doing the same.
 
Faithful readers know how I feel about bread. Even the thought of a bread shortage upsets me. In fact, I'm going to have to go lie down for a little while. Deep breaths. ...
 

OK. I'm back. I'm better now.

In any case, I'm not sure we can tell whether the price of wheat is responsible for restaurants' no longer automatically putting bread on the table or charging for it when you ask for it. I thought that started in response to all the low-carb diets -- restaurateurs were throwing bread away. But maybe I'm wrong.

A cursory Google search of the wheat shortage suggests that not much has been written about how this might affect restaurants. 

The only place I've eaten lately that charges for bread was the Helmand, and it's been doing that for awhile. I thought it was just so they could continue to keep their prices low on other things.

(Kenneth K. Lam/Sun photographer)

 

Posted by Elizabeth Large at 9:08 PM | | Comments (28)
        

Comments

Just today, I agreed to meet a friend at Sammy's at 3 for lunch. I was 15 minutes early, the sweet young thing brought me a hot loaf of bread (no charge) complete with a dish of olive oil and pepper.
The bread was steaming and remained soft.

It all depends on the bread (or rolls). If they're fresh, with a good crust and airy crumb, I would gladly pay.

I had some French-style bread at Mimi's Cafe in the new big-box mall in Columbia last month, served with real butter, that I could have sat and eaten all afternoon.

Luckily my diet and my wife wouldn't let me, otherwise I'd be a fat(ter) old fart!

Speaking of the Helmand, how about a T3 of one-offs? For example, that's the only Afghanistan restaurant in the area I know of. Is Dukem the only Ethiopian? Ze Mean Bean the only . . . whatever it is?

Goldberg's raised the price of a dozen bagels by a dollar (I believe), and a "dozen" is now a standard rather than a baker's. Still a good value, though.

I think a "Top Ten Best Restaurant Breads" Tuesday Topic would be an excellent run.

Fortunato's in Towson has a couple of letters from their supplier posted right at the order counter for customers to read, explaining the wheat shortage and price increase and how it will affect the price of their pizza dough flour and end products. The supplier was estimating $1 increase per pie, if I remember correctly. I could see how restauranteurs would stop automatically giving away bread with that kind of hike.

It was kind of fascinating to read, but depressing when the prices of milk and gas and other basics are so high now, too.

That's very interesting. Thanks. EL

My wife works at a local market stand that sells bread and pasteries. They get locally baked bread and some from Philadelphia. She said that there are price increases and the owner has had to increase prices by $1 per loaf on breads like seeded French and sundried tomato. Sandwich prices have also increased. Let them eat cake?

I just spent several days in Manhattan, and bread with meals seems to be alive and well there. This may not be a valid sample, though, as we more-or-less accidentally had all but one meal at French restaurants.

Have a look: wheat trading.

Corn bread, corn bread, corn bread ...
Kaboom .. Jay C's head explodes.

I am not really thinking that Fortunato's is in Towson... If you're old like me, that's not Towson.

Better stay inside tomorrow Jay C, because it's the Bestest Day Ever!

http://adweek.blogs.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/03/21/corndog.jpg

March 22 is National Corndog Day!!!!
http://www.corndogday.com/

I am not really thinking that Fortunato's is in Towson... If you're old like me, that's not Towson.

No, it's not. And much of what is advertised as "Canton" nowadays isn't really Canton.

Canton gets overused because it's currently stylish. Fortunato's is in Rodgers Forge, more or less. There was a time when that would have been considered "fancier" than Towson. Is that no longer the case?

There's a direct relationship between corn and the wheat shortage. One reason for it is the fact many farmers have switched from wheat to corn, whose price has boomed because of the ethanol craze in
Washington. I'll stop here lest I get too political.

Fortunato's is in what is now considered "Greater Towson," which is not the same thing as Towson proper.

Getting back on topic, we had a pleasant dinner last night at The Spice Company, and I was pleased to see that a basket of breads promptly appeared on our table. There were 4 varieties, plus thin crispy things that were hard to resist. Now I'm wondering--what happens to the rolls we didn't eat? Do they go back out for the next table?

Anything that hits the table is never supposed to go anywhere else, but... EL

Greater Towson sounds like an oxymoron to me...

Point well taken, Fairfax. Sort of like "military intelligence" ...

Greater Towson cannot be any worse than Better Waverly. (Is there a Best/Worse Waverly?)

I'm looking forward to all of the other oxymoronic items to appear. Such as jumbo shrimp - cool, a food reference!

Cool Ranch Doritos - that just makes no sense. 1) the cool part and 2 why would anyone want someting to taste ranchy?

My favorite oxymoron - Free Gift. Aren't they all?

I didn't know about the higher cost of wheat, but it makes sense considering the price of everything at Woodlea Bakery has almost doubled, and a simple cheese pizza at Gil's now costs $8.75. Sigh....

"Free gift" is straight from the Department of Redundancy Department.

Hal VoR: Right up there with "PIN number."

Holy Roman Empire = unholy German confederacy.

So what are the real numbers behind bread prices. This should be a lot simpler than the whole people-are-staying-at-home thing, unless a representative of the Bread Psychology League pops up. Let's crunch.

Price per lb of all purpose white flour
for Northeast urban consumers
Year Feb Annual % Change
1996 0.288 -
1997 0.343 19.1
1998 0.300 -12.5
1999 0.294 -2.0
2000 0.255 -13.3
2001 0.290 13.7
2002 0.281 -3.1
2003 0.287 2.1
2004 0.368 28.2
2005 0.390 6.0
2006 0.337 -13.6
2007 0.370 9.8
2008 0.495 33.8

12 Months Percent Change
Area: Northeast urban
Item: Bread, white, pan, per lb. (453.6 gm)
Year Feb
1990 2.6
1991 -1.2
1992 6.6
1993 -10.0
1994 6.0
1995 -4.7
1996 11.5
1997 -2.6
1998 7.8
1999 8.0
2000 5.5
2001 -4.4
2002 10.4
2003 0.3
2004 13.6
2005 7.6
2006 -0.6
2007 1.3
2008 14.0

1) Flour and to a lesser extent bread is a volatile commodity. Anybody remember the Great Bread Crisis of 2004-5? I thought not. So bread prices for consumers went up 14% in the last year. That's a lot, but it's not crazy nor is it unprecedented.

Personally, based upon no objective data at all, I think stores and restaurants are often guilty of profiteering - jacking the price up more than their wholesale increase. I have hard evidence of that related to increases in cigarette taxes, but not bread. Human nature being what it is ...

There is no reason for the price of baked goods to double. That's not supported by facts. Businesses try to maximize profits.

I don't want this next bit to blow your mind, it's just an example of a really volatile commodity - fresh tomatos. The table which will probably look like crap once it's posted shows wild swings in prices from month to month.

12 Months Percent Change
Area: Northeast urban
Item: Tomatoes, field grown, per lb. (453.6 gm)
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2002 8.0 2.7 4.3 -4.7 6.7 -6.4 -4.3 4.5 -2.2 -5.0 5.1 28.2
2003 19.9 21.7 14.0 20.6 18.4 19.3 26.2 20.8 29.1 18.2 18.7 -2.4
2004 -7.6 -0.2 7.6 1.3 3.3 -2.5 -16.8 -0.9 -4.6 25.6 66.3 77.9
2005 14.7 -1.9 7.9 18.2 23.3 20.6 31.7 2.9 9.1 -13.4 -38.2 -27.2
2006 33.2 24.5 -5.9 -13.7 -15.0 -6.8 -7.6 2.6 29.6 44.4 7.0 -22.5
2007 -29.9 -14.8 -3.9 4.8 12.9 -3.0 -0.4 -8.4 -18.6 -28.3 9.3 29.5
2008 18.2 15.1

Look at those krazee percentages!

Back to oxymorons: Easter Sunday (on what other day could be Easter?) Easter Monday or Easter Friday are different and correct.

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About this blog
Richard Gorelick was appointed The Baltimore Sun's restaurant critic in September 2010. Before joining the paper staff fulltime, he contributed freelance criticism and features articles about food to area and regional publications. Along the way, he dispatched for short-distance trucking companies, shilled for cultural non-profits, and assisted in cognitive neurology research – never the subject, always the control.

He takes restaurants seriously but not himself, and his favorite restaurant is the one you love, too.
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