I think that the question is "what will a recovery look like?". And is it possible for home prices to go back to whatthey were? And is it healthy for prices to go backto what they were?

In my opinion, up until the reccession, house prices were exttremly over valued . So i have to question whther they will go up much in the near future .

Maybe they are undervalued now.Im sure that some are.But in my opinion, a lot of house values have simply gone down to what they really are.

So a homeowner that bought a house for $700,000 5 years ago ,which is ow worth $450,000, may not like the near future.Because in my opinion, its not a case of them "recovering" the lost value.As much as its a case that the house was probably only worth $450,000 when they bought it.

Eventually there will be another "Bubble".But after this recession, i think that it will be awhile before we engage in collective insanity over hom e buying. I realise that others here might disagree.But i remember seeing 12 foot by 38 foot rowhouses going for $500,000- $700,000 .And i remember thinking that no house that size is worth that much.I dont care how well done it is inside.

And i question whther rising home prices will help the construction industry.High prices discourage buying. And back when "shells" in Baltimore were going for $200,00-$300,000 in places like Canton, my interior demolition business was hurting hard because investors and potential homeowners couldnt afford to buy anything.

The first year of the recession hit me hard.But now that prices are low, but fairly atabilised, i am very busy with work

Thats just my humble two cents

Pete is spot on once again.
We need to reframe what we consider a "recovery". I am currently underwater. I've spent the past couple years constantly checking my "Zestimate" trying to deny the inevitable. I've even worked out the details as to how I'd have buy myself out of my current underwater mortgage in a few years when I'm ready to move on to greener pastures.
But the "double dip" has surprisingly brought me new hope.

I was lucky enough to have purchased a home that I am able to comfortably afford. Why try to sell my current home? I can rent it! When prices finally tank (which they will) I'll be able to put 20-50% down on a new home with what it would cost me to try to sale my current home. It makes no since to try to sell.

Real estate has become just like a bad marriage and the old saying is still true "it's cheaper to keep her"!

Good plan Jaded, as long as you can qualify for another mortgage. Remember, they will make you prove you can pay BOTH mortgages with your current income in the future. You will need at least a 2 year rental history with tax returns in order to get out of that. Good luck. I hope it works out for you. Make sure you claim rental income on your taxes if you want it to count.

"average home prices are now below their January 2000 levels," S&P says.

I am going to tip my hat to many including mystelf on this blog that have been predicting this outcome for years. *Darwin Rules*

Baltimore hasnt seen it yet like the rest of the country because of our proximity to DC. We were among the last to the party, we will be the among the last to deflate.

If you are a buyer and offering anthing more than 80% of asking, you will join the misery in short order after you take possession of that turd.

I'm still looking for the 1998 price level to pass before calling a bottom.

Of course once that is done we still have the employment and median wage aspect to work into the mix.

It'll be awhile after that before anything more than an allowance for the basic maintenance expenses of a property to be recouped in a sale price (assuming that work was done and the condition reflects it).

Look at homes in Howard County - they're not going down. Ranchers for $500k+. Homes that sold in 2003 for $300k are $600k and selling right now. As long as D.C. is in business this area will take a long time to fall. Couple that with 3%-10% down loans and the prices will stay inflated.

And sadly, like Jaded there are a lot of folks (including myself) sitting on the sidelines with cash in hand, waiting. A lot of the sellers are on the sidelines too, either because they're underwater or waiting for the prices to go back up, therefore lowering the supply.

It's tough to be fiscally responsible.

MDLifer... hello. ;)

Pockets like the nicer areas in Howard County are anomalous for reasons beyond the RE market itself. And even HoCo as a whole is largely anomalous w/r/t the larger market. Consequently using it as any sort of gauge for anything beyond it's own borders is well, let's say a lot more complicated.

As to the more specific example within those borders...every one of them can tell more tales than just the immediate. Not asking for or offering the rest of the story... leaves investigation open to serial cherry-picking.

eg: I'll assume you have a specific example in mind when you said Homes that sold in 2003 for $300k are $600k and selling right now. How much were comparables to THAT property selling for before 2003? And what ELSE occurred (eg: remodeling?) during those 3 years that might influence that 100% jump.

All that said... I still largely agree with you. 1998 for most of the country (and up to about 2003 in some areas) is the base before allowing for other factors... some of which will lower those numbers even more.

Regarding the comment by "MD lifer"

I think that its important to realise that for all intents and purposes, Howard County is now a DC suburb .

I think that it is very hard to talk about Maryland housing prices and the MD economy when there really isnt one figure that applies to the whole State. The Maryland suburbs of DC , and the DC region has done better during the recession then almost every other part of America.

Baltimore has benifited somewhat by this since we are right ooutside that region.But it should be remembered that we are outside of it.So there are only so many benifits.Especially since im guessing that recent gas prices are convincing many people who work in DC to live close to thier jobs, instead of 40 miles away

Hey Jamie,

I couldn't find your blog as to possible future articles, so I'll stick the comment here, it's some what related.

I'm curious to know the different corrulations between the counties v. the city. I know Truilia does the walkablitiy feature, school districts & possible school boundaries, local shops, eateries ect.
This reminded me of two news stories I watched earlier this week, the first was the news archors getting to work via public transportation to TV Hill in the city when gas prices were rising & the other new story was last night. Last nights article was on the difference between the schools in the Counties & City, where 100% of the schools in Howard, & AA County have AC whereas only 50% of the schools in BCounty & BCity have AC.
Maybe use the website to further show the differences between the counties & city that the websites & real estate agents don't talk about.