It's official. Real estate in a double dip.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42904204

those inventories don't include houses in default or houses where the foreclosure process is just starting.

to be honest, it probably doesn't even include many foreclosed houses, which aren't officially listed yet (because banks want to leak them onto the market slowly)

Pending or "shadow" inventory roughly doubles these figures for national averages. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/03/corelogic-shadow-inventory-declines.html

Interesting thought experiment based on a conversation I had a couple days ago: Buying a house in today's market is like taking out a negative amortization loan was a few years ago. You trade a discounted monthly payment relative to what you'd pay in rent for a loan that increases as a percentage of the home's value. You save monthly, but get charged when you try to exit.

And buying a home is like buying a new car, your net worth takes an instant hit the second you drive it off the lot. Due to seller side closing costs, mainly Realtor cartel fees, you need your house to sell for 10% more than you paid for it just to break even.

@josh -- good reasons that this is a market for landlords who know how to cash-flow a property or people who truly want to live in the house for 10 yrs or more. if you're not sure you want to stay, do not buy.it makes no sense to tie up such a large percentage of your capital in a down payment on something that may go "underwater" soon after the purchase.

CoreLogic, RealtyTrac, RBI, NAR or NRA: There are enough statistics out there to prove any theory you, the media or the politicians would like to float. However, you should not base your decision on where to live and whether or not you own or rent on somebody else's deductions from the aforementioned sources.

For Instance: We were, as Jamie wrote, in the Baltimore Metropolitan area at 8.25 months to absorb the existing inventory at the sales pace indicated by March closings. True or not, six months has been used as the indicator of a market in equilibrium for decades. Now we know that March closings were of sales made in December, January and maybe a few from February - the slowest market of the year. If you used March contracts to establish an absorption rate it would be 5.9 months, a market in equilibrium. We know that distressed properties, particularly foreclosures, have an adverse effect on pricing/value of other properties in close proximity. We also know that there are more foreclosures in some neighborhoods than others, which is why some neighborhoods (not zip codes, counties or metropolitan areas) have seen prices stabilize while others have fallen.

I can make an argument that refutes on a microscale most negative generalizations but to infer that people buy homes to live in them for one or two years gives no credability to anyones argument.

I have great empathy for those who are hurting but in Maryland there are more who are not. March 2010 was in the homestretch of the 2nd Federal tax credit and yet in March 2011 there were less than 3% fewer contracts in the Baltimore Metropolitan region.

Distressed properties are going to be with us for some time but "shadow inventory" with all of its definitions does not mean that they will all become foreclosures. Many lenders are now encouraging short sales, which are typically much closer to fair market value. So there will be more juggling of the stats to produce more fodder for the naysayers in the near future.

At least several sure signs that the mkt is not froth bound, strippers getting million dollar mortgages & dishwashers/bartenders/servers claiming to be licensed mortgage brokers...Ultimately, time will tell based on rent to value ratio & rather or not consumer sentiment is positive enough to encourage buying activity. Buyer beware if a friend of a friend has a friend whose a part time stripper/mortgage broker, offering you a deal. Run for the hills!!!