baltimoresun.com

« Question of the day: What's your real estate beef? | Main | Title company misused escrow funds, state says »

February 9, 2011

Report: Baltimore-area home prices down 17% since mid-2007

If you bought a home in the Baltimore metro area three years ago and put down less than 20 percent, you're probably underwater on your loan.

That's the takeaway from a new housing analysis by Fiserv, which says home prices in the region dropped 17 percent between summer 2007 and summer 2010.

Fiserv, provider of the data that fuels the Case-Shiller index, expects a decrease of not quite 2 percent in the metro area -- that is, Baltimore and its surrounding suburbs -- over the 12 months ending this summer. Prices in Washington, by contrast, "have already stabilized," the firm says. (It produces its forecasts with Moody's Analytics.)

Here's another forecast to add to your score card if you're keeping track at home: Fiserv and Moody's are predicting that three-quarters of metro areas will see prices stop falling by the end of this year, with all leveling out by the end of next year.

But don't count on significant price gains anytime soon, the firm says: 

"Large supplies of foreclosed properties will continue to be the biggest downside risk for home prices and metro area housing markets," David Stiff, Fiserv's chief economist, said in a statement. He added: "In bubble and crash markets, the uncertain timing and volume of bank liquidated properties will cause home prices to bounce around their lows for many years."

What do you think?

Real estate data firm CoreLogic, meanwhile, released numbers showing single-family home prices dropped nearly 7 percent in the Baltimore metro area in December vs. a year earlier. That's about on par with Maryland as a whole, which ranked 14th for price declines. (No. 1: Idaho, down 15 percent.)

Distress sales are helping drive the decrease. The price of homes that weren't foreclosures or short sales dropped about 2.5 percent in the state overall and about 4 percent in the Baltimore metro area, CoreLogic said. 

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 6:00 AM | | Comments (24)
Categories: Housing forecasts, Housing stats
        

Comments

Additional information on Moody's Analytics' Housing Market Monitor is available at: http://www.moodysanalytics.com/Products-and-Solutions/Economic-Consumer-Credit-Analytics/Economic-Research/US-Housing-Market-Monitor.aspx

I find this to be an insulting article. My husband and I bought our home in 2007 for $450,000 in Baltimore County, made some major upgrades (granite counterstops, fancy faucets, painted, new carpets, new fridge -we even planted a tree). We have had another child and were planning on moving this Spring due to an addition to the family (WOOT WOOT) We are going to put the house on the market for $750,000 next month. When we sell, we are going to use the profits as a down payment on our dream home - (a bigger home in Baltimore County) This article about decrease in home values is ridiculous and makes me mad. it is like some people don't understand real estate values at all. it is local, local, local. My home has been every well taken care of and how could it LOSE value? Give me a break. Stoocks are roaring, gas is up, food is up. Why would this type of article come out about housing? Why does the media hate the housing market so much. Come armed with facts about prices, Ok!!

Beverly, positive thinking only gets you so far...

Beverly: Sarcastic vs. delusional? I can't tell. Whatever the case I have a bridge in Brooklyn that I'd love to sell you!

Jaded, I'm 99 percent sure it's sarcastic -- it's a comment from a regular reader.

"We even planted a tree." LOL

Not sure what stock index that poster is looking at when she sais stocks are soaring. Another example of someone with no knowledge speaking about topics they have no idea about. I could pull up a list of a few hundred properties in Baltimore county that are similar and have been listed for over 1000 days. Typical response to that would be "our house is better" what they don't realize is that a house is like a stock, doesn't matter if it is "better", it's like a stock, only worth what someone is willing to pay. I'll look for your listing on the MLS and give you a call in a year to see if you are really ready to sell it.

Too bad it wasn't the tree of knowledge

I feel for Beverly but Anon is correct. Everyone believes that their house is special. It is hard to accept that the housing market bubble has burst. It will never return to what it was. So many people lost so much money that the circumstances that created the old housing market will not be repeated in our lifetime. Taxes are ridiculous. Mortgage loans are difficult. Big profits from Real Estate are a thing of the past. As Anon said a house is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Good Luck.

Well Anon - Hey it is Beverly. Just wanted to clarify something since you seem to question my knowledge of not only the stock market but the real estate market. My husband and I are looking at the S&P 500 Index (ever heard of that one?) In less then two years - the S&P has returned..get this..wait for it....93%!!! 93%. Are you familiar with percentages? We Banzers (and lots of our neighbors and others we meet on the street) are a pretty wealthy bunch. It has almost been like money is dropping from the sky. So - tell me - why would housing prices be down. Someone will pay $750,000 for my house. My realtor has told me so in fact. A nice fellow, Greig Norherp is. Ever heard of him? He is an expert in the field!. You, Anon,are not! So back off! And to the other poster, Sparky - Yes, we planted a tree!!! It provides tremendous shade to the home and we also use it to support our hammock. Yes, a hammock. Ever heard of it?

Jamie, did you notice the city census figures? A drop of thirty thousand residents in a state which population grew ten percent, I wonder when city government will get it. As far as Beverly is concerned, I am assuming a misspelling in her realtor's name. If it is the realtor I think, then he is known for letting you list your house for what you think its worth, in order to get your business, and then after a couple of months of sitting, he lists it for what he thinks its really worth. I am assuming you put 350,000 dollars into your house if you expect to make 300,0000 in four years. Good luck with that one.

It's more like if you put down less than 26% you're under water. You must account for the 6% ransom by the National Association of Realtors as well as the 3% seller concession it takes to move a house these days, both of which are subtracted from the seller's gross take.

You know...I'm getting sick of hearing about people being underwater/upside down on their mortgage loans. Maybe it's time people started thinking about buying homes as a way to provide permanent, stable housing for themselves, rather than as investments.

Beverly, you are correct that the S&P and Dow are up. Foreclosures and short sales are way up and climbing too. Ever heard of a "Buyers Market"? New homes starts are down because of the glut of unsold homes on the market. Folks rent their homes now because they can't sell them at the price they think they should get. A good friend of mine had a very nice home for sale in Harford county. He started at $450,000 eighteen months ago. He just closed at $295,000. I don't know anyone that has sold a house in the last two years for the price they wanted. Don't let some fast talking, slick Willy of a Real Estate Agent blow smoke up your skirt, girlfriend. You might want to get professional help from someone to present your home in it's best possible light but don't expect to get your asking price. Best of luck to you in the future.

Thanks, Zang! We are set with the staging for our house. We will have cookies laid out and others baking in oven for our open houses. We are going to offer free sodas and coffee and also have "Million Dollar Listing" on all the TV's as people go from room to room. There will also be some baloons and a quote from Ben Cardin printed out when he said there was never a better time to buy a house.
Thanks to all who have sent private messages to us. We are not going to lower the price of our house. Our actions will help us wealthy stay wealthy. especially in our neighborhood. So - if you want to feel weatlhy also and show people that you actually are and can pay a lot for a home - come see us!! There are a number of reputable mortgage professionals who would be glad to give you some money. My husband says the banks have made a ton of money the past few years getting back to their core businesses.

Beverly you are wasting your time responding to these fools. Only the few of us with clear heads and clear vision realize that the events from 2007-2009 were just a hiccup, and that Ben Bernanke, with his Princeton education, has led the U.S. back to prosperity with the best of days still ahead of us! Imagine, all we had to do was hit the "Push here to print Trillions button" to restart the party! My only concern is that you still seem influenced by the naysayers around you. From the description of your home, especially with that wonderful tree, I fail to see why you would accept any less than $1,000,000. In fact, of you serve lattes and capaccino's at your open house, I would prepare for an all out bidding war to the seven figure prmised land!! I am soooo envious!!

Good Point, Darwin Rules. In fact, since I have written in to this blog of Jamie's. My real esate agent, best friend for a few months, Greig Northrip, has told me he thinks "we" can make even more on our house if I ":raise" the price from $750,000 to $890,000!!! I am so ecstatic. Greig is great!! Who would have ever thought to raise the asking price and then drop it in a few weeks to show others there is discount to be had. AWESOME!!! My husband and I will certainly pay the increased profit forward. Real Estate is a great game. and you are right, Darwin, capachino and latte's will attract more of a wealthy crowd. WEALTHY BALTIMOREONS FOREVER!!

Darwin and Beverly should go get a room! LOL!

Darwin and Beverly should get their own comedy show. Thanks

Josh,

You talk about a "ransom," but you are free to sell your house yourself, and there are even FSBO services out there that let you list your house on the MLS for a flat fee of around $500.

You make it sound like people have no other options. I sold my house myself in 2007 using a FSBO service that put me on the MLS. Just like many things in life, there are people who want services like a Realtor and are willing to pay those costs, just like there are people who use a stockbroker and those who use e*Trade.

Did you agree to pay roughly 3% to the buyer's agent?

Of course this does not apply to all houses-averages are just that. and percentages mean little if you don't put real numbers into the equation. Take a $250,000 house purchased in 2007, a 17% reduction means it is worth $207,500. Let's be generous and say the home was purchased with 10% down ($25,000) The mortgage was 225K. In 3 years, maybe $5000 in principal has been paid on the mortgage? So the mortgage balance is $220K and the value is $207-upside down $13K.Now, say you want to sell it-real estare commission-5%, maybe? Take off another $10,375 Now the house will get you 197K and change. Sellers have to pay a variety of closing costs-a few more $1000. By the time you get to closing, the house is under water close to $30,000. And, to get a buyer these days, those who can truly afford to buy with little down payment are few and far between, so the buyer will need to have at least 10% down and a few thousand for closing costs. How many buyerss are sitting around with $20-25,000? Add the increased inventory from foreclosed, vacant houses out there and the values will go down even more. This is why we have a housing crisis.

Josh,

I offered 2.5%. But if there was no agent, there was no commission. The way I looked at it was that if I offered 0%, the buyer would have to pay the 2.5% (I've been told since that's an "average" single side commission), so the buyer would have offered me 2.5% less for the house, so it would have worked out the same either way.

You make it sound like having a Realtor offers no value, but I used a Realtor to buy another house years ago and he offered a service. He knew the area, knew values, knew the houses available, and navigated me through the process. Could I have spent hours learning the ins and outs of contracts, and found contracts to download and negotiated, but I didn't know the local market and it would have been tough to get the info he had to offer - not impossible, but I paid for that service. The same way you pay a lawyer to litigate, a broker to plan finances or a personal trainer.

But, that's just my take. If you feel like they are someone a source of evil, that's your right. And if you want to argue the 2.5% and if it should be less, go right ahead. Who wouldn't want cheaper fees... But try getting a lawyer to take less than 40% on a accident lawsuit!

There is no way that you can expect to sell that property for $750k after having bought it for 450 in the hottest real estate market ever.

Post a comment

All comments must be approved by the blog author. Name-calling aimed at other commenters is not welcome here. Please do not resubmit comments if they do not immediately appear. You are not required to use your full name when posting, but you should use a real e-mail address. Comments may be republished in print, but we will not publish your e-mail address. Our full Terms of Service are available here.

Verification (needed to reduce spam):

About Jamie Smith Hopkins
Jamie Smith Hopkins, a Baltimore Sun reporter since 1999, writes about the regional economy. Her reporting on the housing market has won national and local awards. Hopkins is a Columbia native and has lived in Maryland all her life, save for 10 months spent covering schools in Ames, Iowa.
She trained to become a wonk by spending large chunks of time as a geek and an insufferable know-it-all.
Baltimore Sun articles by Jamie
-- ADVERTISEMENT --

Most Recent Comments
Baltimore Sun coverage
Baltimore Sun Real Estate section
Archive: Dream Home
Dream Home takes readers into the houses of area residents who have found their ideal home.
Sign up for FREE business alerts
Get free Sun alerts sent to your mobile phone.*
Get free Baltimore Sun mobile alerts
Sign up for Business text alerts

Returning user? Update preferences.
Sign up for more Sun text alerts
*Standard message and data rates apply. Click here for Frequently Asked Questions.
  • Sign up for the At Home newsletter
The home and garden newsletter includes design tips and trends, gardening coverage, ideas for DIY projects and more.
See a sample | Sign up

Charm City Current
Categories
Stay connected