How Baltimore neighborhoods fared in the 2000s
High-income Baltimore neighborhoods might have retained more of their housing-bubble gains than moderate- and low-income communities, a new analysis by Johns Hopkins graduate students suggests.
The public-policy students, who wanted to understand how the drama-filled last decade affected 14 varied city neighborhoods, found that home prices in 2009 were far above their 2000 levels in most places -- but as a group, the high-income spots held up the best.
The hardest-hit neighborhoods weren't low income. Frankford and Belair-Edison -- both moderate-income areas in Northeast Baltimore -- saw values fall so much during the bust that they ended the decade with prices slightly below their 2000 levels, after accounting for inflation. (I know we don't normally think of home prices in an inflation-adjusted way, but the students wanted to try to get at the real change in value.)
Rising foreclosures seem to be a key reason for the big price drops in those two neighborhoods.
Read on to see how median home sale prices changed in the analyzed neighborhoods. And tell me if you're surprised by the community that retained most of its boom-time price levels. (Hint: It's an exception to the high-income-neighborhood trend.)
|Neighborhood||2000 median||2006 median||2009 median||09 vs 00||09 vs 06|
|West Forest Park||$73,342||$120,949||$95,000||30%||-21%|
Wilson Park is a low-income neighborhood next to high-income Guilford. The Johns Hopkins students, who focused on census tracts rather than neighborhoods as defined by the city, said part of the area is filled with long-term residents who care deeply about the community. (The students went out into the neighborhoods to interview folks, so it wasn't all number-crunching.)
I tried to upload the analysis, but it's so large that either my computer or this blogging platform couldn't manage it. Comment if you'd like me to email it to you. UPDATE: I've uploaded it to Google Docs. Read it here.
Oh, and in case you're wondering: These median figures are pulled from all recorded sales, rather than just those listed on the multiple-listing service used by real estate pros.