How Baltimore neighborhoods fared in the 2000s
High-income Baltimore neighborhoods might have retained more of their housing-bubble gains than moderate- and low-income communities, a new analysis by Johns Hopkins graduate students suggests.
The public-policy students, who wanted to understand how the drama-filled last decade affected 14 varied city neighborhoods, found that home prices in 2009 were far above their 2000 levels in most places -- but as a group, the high-income spots held up the best.
The hardest-hit neighborhoods weren't low income. Frankford and Belair-Edison -- both moderate-income areas in Northeast Baltimore -- saw values fall so much during the bust that they ended the decade with prices slightly below their 2000 levels, after accounting for inflation. (I know we don't normally think of home prices in an inflation-adjusted way, but the students wanted to try to get at the real change in value.)
Rising foreclosures seem to be a key reason for the big price drops in those two neighborhoods.
Read on to see how median home sale prices changed in the analyzed neighborhoods. And tell me if you're surprised by the community that retained most of its boom-time price levels. (Hint: It's an exception to the high-income-neighborhood trend.)
| Neighborhood | 2000 median | 2006 median | 2009 median | 09 vs 00 | 09 vs 06 |
| Frankford | $84,530 | $149,451 | $79,500 | -6% | -47% |
| Belair-Edison | $62,465 | $98,211 | $61,558 | -1% | -37% |
| Ashburton | $85,649 | $148,598 | $97,000 | 13% | -35% |
| Mt. Holly | $55,939 | $122,711 | $66,683 | 19% | -46% |
| West Forest Park | $73,342 | $120,949 | $95,000 | 30% | -21% |
| Cedarcroft | $308,287 | $523,082 | $415,000 | 35% | -21% |
| Highlandtown | $47,374 | $128,102 | $70,695 | 49% | -45% |
| Ten Hills | $99,385 | $176,140 | $148,500 | 49% | -16% |
| Morrell Park | $67,438 | $118,494 | $101,000 | 50% | -15% |
| Tuscany-Canterbury | $242,403 | $412,060 | $365,000 | 51% | -11% |
| Mt. Washington | $182,113 | $373,096 | $299,500 | 64% | -20% |
| Canton | $150,041 | $297,836 | $249,900 | 67% | -16% |
| Greektown | $64,641 | $152,868 | $110,000 | 70% | -28% |
| Wilson Park | $36,547 | $71,257 | $69,540 | 90% | -2% |
Wilson Park is a low-income neighborhood next to high-income Guilford. The Johns Hopkins students, who focused on census tracts rather than neighborhoods as defined by the city, said part of the area is filled with long-term residents who care deeply about the community. (The students went out into the neighborhoods to interview folks, so it wasn't all number-crunching.)
I tried to upload the analysis, but it's so large that either my computer or this blogging platform couldn't manage it. Comment if you'd like me to email it to you. UPDATE: I've uploaded it to Google Docs. Read it here.
Oh, and in case you're wondering: These median figures are pulled from all recorded sales, rather than just those listed on the multiple-listing service used by real estate pros.
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Comments
Jamie,
I'd definitely like to see that analysis. Please send it my way.
Posted by: cinema | December 14, 2010 9:46 AM
Yes, but have any of these aspiring policy makers address the basic, underlying question of whether or not it is desirable to have an expensive basic need? Or have they blindly bought into the party line of the National Association of Realtors, Banksters, and other rent seekers?
Posted by: Josh Dowlut | December 14, 2010 12:28 PM
Cinema, I sent the report your way this morning. Let me know if it didn't land. (It's REALLY big.)
Josh, the analysis didn't spend much time on the desirability or not of higher home prices, but there was a bit of discussion about whether the high-income neighborhoods have priced themselves out of the market.
Posted by: Jamie Smith Hopkins | December 14, 2010 12:48 PM
What is your definition of "moderate income?" Do you consider "low income" below the poverty line of about $22k?
Posted by: "Nutty Bar" | December 14, 2010 12:49 PM
Hi, "Nutty Bar" -- here's how the Johns Hopkins students are defining the income groups:
High income: 50% of households making more than $40,000
Moderate income: 50% of households making $28,000 - $37,000
Low income: 50% of households making less than $27,000
I'm sure very few people would use $40,000 as the threshold for "high income," by the way, but neighborhoods the Hopkins students picked for that category are ones that Baltimore residents probably think of as upscale.
Posted by: Jamie Smith Hopkins | December 14, 2010 12:58 PM
Jamie,
I'd like to see the report as well, but if it's bigger than 25MB, Gmail won't accept it. Maybe upload it to Google Docs and make it public?
Posted by: Chris | December 14, 2010 1:41 PM
Jamie,
Interesting stuff! I would be interested in seeing the report as well.
Thanks!
Posted by: Brian McGeehan | December 14, 2010 2:51 PM
Can you send me the report please?
Posted by: ironhide196 | December 15, 2010 12:31 AM
ironhide, I've added a link to the report on the blog post -- see above.
Posted by: Jamie Smith Hopkins | December 15, 2010 9:36 AM
Hi there, I'd really to have a copy of that report. Thank you!
Posted by: Monica Johnson | December 17, 2010 6:40 PM
Monica, did you try the link above? That should work for you. The file is just too darn big for most people's mailboxes.
Posted by: Jamie Smith Hopkins | December 18, 2010 2:19 PM