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October 7, 2010

Report: Baltimore-area rents up -- a lot

Average rents in the Baltimore metro area this summer jumped nearly 10 percent from what they were a year ago, according to real estate research firm Delta Associates.

Holy moly.

"Demand for rental housing in the Baltimore area has improved and fundamentals are looking strong as supply comes into line with demand," the firm says in its newest apartment report, out this week.

The average rent during the summer was about $1,470 a month, Delta Associates says. This is the "effective" rent, the average once concessions and rent specials are subtracted out. The value of these deals is dropping, pushing up the total.

Also behind the increase: fewer empty units.

Delta Associates, which surveys the nicer garden and high-rise complexes known as "Class A," says the vacancy rate is down slightly to 3.6 percent in the metro area. That compares with a national rate of 6.6 percent. (What that vacancy rate doesn't include are buildings still in the process of initial lease-up.)

Effective rents rose 7.5 percent year-over-year in Baltimore's southern suburbs, 12.7 percent in the northern suburbs, 3.4 percent in downtown Baltimore and nearly 16 percent in the Fells Point/Inner Harbor area, Delta Associates says.

Back in April, the firm said rents rose modestly -- less than 2 percent -- with drops in some submarkets in the region.

I talked to Grant Montgomery, a vice president with Delta Associates, about the downtown apartment market during the spring and he said that few projects were being built -- which would be good for landlords once more people had the wherewithal to rent.

The firm says in its new report that the supply pipeline metro-wide "remained constrained." It predicts that demand for apartments will slightly outstrip the number of new units planned.

"Baltimore’s supply/demand imbalance indicates that occupancy will improve and rent growth is likely to continue at a modest pace over the next three years," Delta Associates says.

A recent national survey suggested more optimism among landlords, many of whom anticipated raising rents in the next 12 months. I noted these results in a post, and readers had interesting responses.

Wonk reader se_coupe, a renter in Columbia, shared a personal experience: "I saw my rent go up drastically in this most recent renewal. ... I made an inquiry with the leasing office. They claimed 'market conditions were improving' and that all lessees in the community would see an increase in their rent at their next renewal."

Mickey was puzzled by the suggestion that the balance of power was swinging back toward landlords: "There are tons of rental properties - half of the harbor strip is vacant, the new towers around Camden Yard too, the new neighborhood above Little Italy."

And a property manager going by "PropMngr" weighed in: "[M]y community is stable if not slightly better than last year as far as occupancy is concerned. Renewal increase range from $10 to $40 depending on apt type. That being said we have had to become more accommodating with rent payments. Offering programs to residents that were normally on time and due to the economy have become late payers. We have also seen bad debt rise as many who we have tried to work with realize they just can't and skip out."

Thoughts?

Has anyone seen a 10 percent rent increase?

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 7:00 AM | | Comments (24)
Categories: Landlording, Renting
        

Comments

I don't know about a rent increase but my daughter's renters Insurance that Landlords are now requiring went from $91.00 to $110.00 this year.

With real estate salesmen drumming up their business and "scientific" stats like this today, this blog is becoming openly "industry friendly". To check out the supply of rental units, maybe you want to drive down the Charles Village and see the forest of For Rent/Sale signs, or have a stroll on Mount Vernon (no recent killings like in Charles Village), or have a peek at the more recently built apartments in and around harbor (read: tons of vacant units).

All that such stats and articles are going to produce is enabling landlord to add "scientifically proven and published" data when trying to get more money from tenants: Yes, sorry guys, but there was a rent increase of 10% this summer...

And in the same article there is a talk of decreased ability of tenants to pay rent on time. So much about supply, demand, and price shaping.

Mickey, I can't make up stats -- I can only draw from what's available. Delta Associates has reported flat and dropping rents in certain markets at certain periods, which gives me some level of confidence that they're not cooking the books for apartment owners. But you see I made a point of sharing the comments everyone wrote on the last apartment post -- yours included -- as a way of showing the diversity of experience renters and landlords are having.

Class A isn't the only stuff out there, of course. There are older complexes and a lot of single-family homes for rent. Unfortunately, that part of the market isn't nearly as well-tracked, so it's difficult to say how everything is faring.

If anyone sees other apartment stats you think are worth sharing, please chime in.

Jamie, from my point of view, even if the stats are genuine, maybe some reflection on behalf of the reporter could contribute to the feeling of neutrality. The way it is written, it is like having a drought and then not mentioning it in an article about bread price increase.

Maybe it is not a purpose of this blog, but for a few of uninformed like I, it would be more interesting to check out is it really "supply coming in line with demand" that one can see around town and @ Craig's list. And for a genuine market-economy believer like me, it is really worthwhile to see why the rents are rising if renters already have trouble paying on time (as stated in the article).

Mickey, what reflection were you hoping for? I thought the reader comments, including yours, offered more depth than any opining I might do. And I really try not to opine -- I don't think it's particularly helpful. I think it makes things LESS neutral, don't you?

The only thing in the post that shows my reaction to these numbers is the "Holy moly," which is not intended to suggest anything except "get a load of this stat." It's a big figure after so many months of small/flat/negative numbers. I'll be interested to see what the fourth-quarter data show (and any other rent stats from other providers).

Mickey, maybe this is your first time reading Jamie's blog, but I think she is very neutral. The only time she gives her personal views is when she is talking about an experience she has had (remodeling her house).

She was only reporting data, which even though I also see vacant rentals everywhere as well, I also know someone trying to rent a place in Baltimore and everyone he finds and schedules to go see are already rented within a day or two. Maybe there is a reason some buildings/homes are vacant.

Jamie - On a related note, do you know of any resources (besides craigslist) that provide a central place to look for rental homes/condos online (not apartments)? I haven't had much luck.

Hi, John -- if you throw "homes for rent" into a search engine, you'll get a variety of sites that claim to have more than just apartments. I haven't used any of them enough to say whether they're useful, but it's worth a try.

Anyone else have website recommendations?

I'm with Mickey -- all you have to do is look around the neighborhoods, look on craigslist and other places and you'll see that rents in Baltimore might be higher -- but the number of vacant rentals has increased. And until rents come down, those rentals will never be filled. As a renter, why would I want to pay over $1000 a month to live in a crime-riddled dirty city?

I've also found in my neighborhood, the highest rents are in buildings/for homes that overtly seek out Section-8 tenants. The housing flippers are losing money hand over fist and they've found a cash cow in the low-income rental business. I have a friend who was turned down for a rental house because she has a job.

Yikes, Cathy -- I wonder how often that's happening.

Not to be forgotten, but the city has continued to raise property taxes on multi-unit buildings and increased both environmental fines, inspection fines, and other operational fees. It has become increasingly more expensive to have rental property in Baltimore; the increases of course, just get passed onto the tenants whether they know it or not. I think most would be shocked if they knew what percentage of their rent went just to property taxes - in the case of my buildings, it is about 35% - 40% of their rent.

Jamie, I bet it happens more often than we think. The landlord was convinced he would have a section-8 tenant for the house so he told her it was no longer for rent and then said that if she didn't have a job she could apply for "welfare housing" and he'd rent the house to her.

This is a 2BR 1-1/2BA renovated home with a $1500 a month price tag but it's in Pigtown. My friend ended up moving to Hampden and rents a really nice house in a better neighborhood for a lot less.

As of 2008, the median contract rent for Bmore City apartments was 651/mo. Your stats only cover movement within a very small, high end market segment. If anything, it only supports the thesis that higher income earners, especially in government dominated MD, have been largely unaffected by the "Great Recession." Not that the Bmore rental market is broadly rebounding.

I'd like to see more stats on the entire apartment market, Josh -- where are you getting your '08 figure on rents for the entire spectrum? Sounds like a source I should be using.

Yes, Cathy wrote some of the things I believed to be the case. I expected more noise from the savvy renter champions though; they who are saving and leading financially shrewd lives, now need to pay for the costs made by the lack of income expected from the others (i.e. the missing money from property tax)...but, I may be wrong again.

I have a real-life story about section 8 that has been chapping at elweedz a55. I have commented previously about my distain for subsidized housing. Its intent is to bring the underprivileged up but, its consequence is they bring the neighborhood down. I live in a White Marsh town home community, close to the mall. One accidental landlord decided to upgrade and move out and turn his old home into a rental. After getting stiffed by his first tenant for 3 months rent, he decided to apply for and get approved for section 8. Hooray for the rest of the neighborhood! They pay $500 month and section 8 picks up the other $1000. We are now treated to..

-constant drug traffic

-people that think screaming is an everyday normal form of communication

- the slo-mo walk I dare you to hit me stare to get out of the street when you pull into the court

-constant bass thumping and vulgar lyric music

The point is, the people right next door, who are also renters, inquired about renting before the sections 8 tenants moved in. He denied them without even looking at their qualifications when he found out that they were not section 8.

Subsidies don’t work...>EVER<
Not mortgage mods
Not mortgage interest tax right off
Not cash for clunkers
Not homebuyer tax credit

There is no greater survival instinct than self preservation. Hunger is a powerful motivator and necessity is the mother of invention. When you remove FEAR of failure and its subsequent penalties from the risk equation then, you only encourage more reckless behavior.

Propping up doesnt work for people or house values.

elweedz, had you posted that 15 or more years ago, I would have argued with you until I was blue in the face. Living in Baltimore has taken the blinders off. Your statement about the removal of fear and the subsequent penalties is exactly why Baltimore is in its current state, and why it will never change. Crime/bad behavior and poverty never went hand in hand when I was growing up, now it seems to be the perfect storm. There are houses in my neighborhood that I can't afford (despite my best efforts to live frugally) and they're some of the biggest "problem houses" in our neighborhood, because of the tenants. It will only hasten the decline of the neighborhood.

http://www.city-data.com/county/Baltimore_city-MD.html

I can't tell exactly where or how they're getting their figures from, but "median contract rent" is a Census measure and the site itself appears legit. A CNN personal finance editor cited them in 2009 as did Investors Business Daily in 2008.

might be some good information here.

elweedz, you nailed it. Until you actually see the results of Section 8 housing you have no clue. Most people that think it is a good thing have never lived near it.

I saw a 5% increase in my rent when I was sent my renewal in June. I told my landlord that I planned to move out. In September, just a few weeks before I moved, the rental office emailed me and said that they had some "flexibility" and would I contact them. I would encourage renters to not renew unless they do a little negotiating. Chances are, landlords won't have re-rented before your lease term is up. You may get a better deal. As it ended up, I bought a house so I am no longer a renter.

A year ago, Jamie wrote about how i was able to negotiate a lower rent to save $75/month. (http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/business/realestate/blog/2009/10/tenant_negotiates_a_smaller_rent_increase.html)

Well, this year, it didn't work . My apartment complex, which was undergoing a transition (renovations) has been filling up over the year, mostly with Towson U. students. They've become less interested in negotiating with good long-term tenants. As a result, my rent has increased by $125/month. That's painful.

Rent or own, either way, we're screwed.

@ Shireen

I'm sorry you have fallen prey to student housing off campus. My experience was only when I was a student in York, PA.

4 Bedroom condo. 2 bedrooms 5x10 and 1 bedroom 7x18. I split a room with another roomie and our rent was $550 a month each while the lucky saps with a private room paid $600.

$2300 per month for a single condo in York. Every unit was filled.

It's a shame. Nobody wins. The students have a higher room and board loan to pay off after graduation and if anyone else is in the complex they suffer because of the demand created between schools and housing complexes.

It's strictly business, but if we're to be treated like cattle at least know our name.

You can call me daisy. Mooooooo

Hi Jamie,

It's me again. I am a small property owner and I have units in central Baltimore. I had vacancies to fill this summer because of bad planning on my part.

In my rental range studios to 2brs from 600 - 950, there is BIG demand. For landlords who can afford it (despite our RIDICULOUS taxes) and offer rents in these ranges, there are a lot of potential renters. I noticed an increase from when I'd advertised previously, about 17 months ago.

I actually wished I had more apartments because I had to turn people away and I got calls for months after the ads had expired.

The not-so-great news was:

1. The plethora of renovation done during the boom has made tenants more exacting in terms of modernization. Since a lot of units were redone with granite and all kinds of fancy stuff, I was kind of pressured to do add cosmetic upgrades to the units.

2. Lower Quality Applicants - Compared to the last year or two, I got WAY more applicants, but it seemed that I was attracting more people who had horrible credit history. Not from foreclosures, but general unpaid CC debt. I was surprised, because some of the applicants were professionals. The applicants had a variety of backgrounds. I would say the quality of applicants was a bit lower.

3. My rents DEcreased - Sad to say, but I actually lowered most of my rents. rent only increased in one new unit. I do plan to have a small increase next year. I increase rents every year unless I have a turnover in tenants, and need to attract applicants.

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About Jamie Smith Hopkins
Jamie Smith Hopkins, a Baltimore Sun reporter since 1999, writes about the regional economy. Her reporting on the housing market has won national and local awards. Hopkins is a Columbia native and has lived in Maryland all her life, save for 10 months spent covering schools in Ames, Iowa.
She trained to become a wonk by spending large chunks of time as a geek and an insufferable know-it-all.
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