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September 10, 2010

Declines in pending home sales -- and some increases

While we're waiting for August home sale numbers, have one more bite from the July apple.

The number of contracts signed that month, deals that will turn into settlements if all goes well, slumped precipitously in most of Maryland. A dozen counties and Baltimore City saw double-digit declines, including a 38 percent drop in Dorchester (from 34 contracts a year ago to 21 in July) and a 26 percent decrease in Carroll (from 161 a year ago to 119).

Cue the "we told you so" from economists, who predicted that buyers would rush to sign contracts in time to qualify for the federal homebuyer tax credit, leaving sales to drop off afterward.

But buyers in four counties actually picked up the pace in July compared with a year earlier. Here's where:

1. Wicomico County: 70 contracts signed in July, up 27 percent from a year earlier. (Yes -- 27 percent. Not a typo.)

2. Worcester County: 163 contracts signed in July, up 23 percent from a year earlier. (Also not a typo.)

3. Garrett County: 33 contracts signed in July, up 6 percent from a year earlier. 

4. Cecil County: 82 contracts signed in July, up 1 percent from a year earlier. 

(The numbers, from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems and the Coastal Association of Realtors, were compiled by the Maryland Association of Realtors and number-crunched by your friendly neighborhood wonk.)

So why are these four seeing more buying activity? Your guess is as good as mine. But here's a bit about them:

Cecil is east of Harford, and agents say it's seeing some of the BRAC effect. Garrett, in Western Maryland, is home to Deep Creek Lake. Maryland's other main vacation spot, Ocean City, is in Worcester. And Wicomico is Worcester's next-door neighbor.

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About Jamie Smith Hopkins
Jamie Smith Hopkins, a Baltimore Sun reporter since 1999, writes about the regional economy. Her reporting on the housing market has won national and local awards. Hopkins is a Columbia native and has lived in Maryland all her life, save for 10 months spent covering schools in Ames, Iowa.
She trained to become a wonk by spending large chunks of time as a geek and an insufferable know-it-all.
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