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August 4, 2010

Where homebuyers are paying what sellers are asking

Home sellers in Windsor Mill, North Beach and Laurel are either good at setting their asking prices, or buyers are eager to live there.

The average sale prices in all three Baltimore-area communities were less than 1 percent below average sellers' original listing prices, according to real estate brokerage ZipRealty's second-quarter "hot" and "cold" ZIP code report.

Across the metro area in June, by contrast, average sellers got about 8 percent less than their asking prices, according to Metropolitan Regional Information Systems.

Here's ZipRealty's full hot-and-cold list:

HOT:

1. (tie) Windsor Mill (21244, in Baltimore County) -- average sale price was 99.2 percent of the average list price

1. (tie) North Beach (20714, in Anne Arundel and Calvert counties) -- 99.2 percent

3. Laurel (20724, in Anne Arundel and Prince George's counties) -- 99.1 percent

4. Hanover (21076, in Anne Arundel County) -- 98.7 percent

5. Odenton (21113, in Anne Arundel County) -- 98.4 percent

COLD:

1. Baltimore (21223, in the southwestern part of the city) -- 90.1 percent

2. Cockeysville (21030, in Baltimore County) -- 92.2 percent

3. Annapolis (21401, in Anne Arundel County) -- 93 percent

4. Baltimore (21216, in the western part of the city) -- 93.1 percent

5. Towson (21204, in Baltimore County) -- 93.2 percent

A little national perspective: ZipRealty says California had a lot of ZIP codes with homes selling for more than the asking price, while "seven out of ten ZIP codes nationwide where homes were selling most below asking price for the same time period were located in Florida." Both states had big bubbles and busts.

Closer to home, the Washington metro area had eight ZIP codes where average buyers paid slightly more than average sellers asked for.

The brokerage firm says it only includes ZIP codes with at least 30 sales in its analysis, so communities need pretty active housing markets to make the list. That might explain why the "cold" ZIPs in the Baltimore area are around average for the metro area as a whole.

I said it the last time I wrote a post about ZipRealty's hot/cold list, but it's worth repeating: Sales price vs. asking price isn't the only measure of a market's health. It's one way to look at how close -- or far apart -- buyers and sellers are on price.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 7:00 AM | | Comments (27)
Categories: Housing stats
        

Comments

How well are sellers in Harford county doing with their asking prices? I noticed that many houses for sale are very overpriced in towns like for example Bel Air, when comparing to their Zillow estimate value, Many of the BRAC people are buying in Cecil county where they can buy more square footage for the same money.

21223 mount clare is drug infested. i live in mount clare, bought a nice house in 07 and i regret everyday. My taxes are high, i live next to drug addicts and dealers all around me, and i fear for my life everytime i walk up the street. Baltimore wants people investing, but they don't want to do something about the drugs that deter people from investing in areas of high potential such as mount clare. It's a shame, i've had many home buyers see houses in the area and say it's the people that keeps them away. i am so depressed, do i walk away from my home and rebuild or stick it out?

kempis, I checked a few Harford ZIPs for you. Here are the stats:

Bel Air, 21015 -- 97.5 percent
Bel Air, 21014 -- 97.1 percent
Belcamp, 21017 -- 97.5 percent
Havre de Grace, 21078 -- 96.9 percent

allen, that's a difficult question. I've just made your comment its own post so readers can weigh in.

Allen,

If you're really concerned about your safety then move and rent the house. Noone should have to live where they don't feel safe. However, as a Hollins Mkt resident, I must say even Southeast DC was just like this. The change happens when the residents get active. You can't simply rely solely on the baltcity gov't or the police. Do join the association, do attend the cop walks and do call 311 if someone so much as stands on the corner 2 minutes too long. Another thing, illegal garbage dumping sends a message to dealers that the residents don't care so they stick around. Please report it everyday until it stops or makes the city sick of seeing your reports. Don't confront anyone and don't leave your name when you call 311. The only time they should see you is during the cop walks! THEY NEED TO BE SENT THIS MESSAGE!

You can't expect change to happen overnight and you can't get change by just sitting around complaining. You have to get active!

@ sue

HI Sue

I do all that you mention, but the addicts and dealers keep coming. I use to live in Hollins too BTW, for very short time. I have tried the association and it's useless, too much self interest mainly in preserving the status quo (if you ever go to a meeting, you know it’s a yelling match of sisters of mercy people and community members). I honestly have to say I don't feel unsafe that much, just I do complain a lot and am very involved and I do get results, so it makes me concerned at times for my safety. I have been involved in a Bar protest, removal of two home owners for drug nuisance and have a third in process. I have complained about people on the corners, have planted trees, have cleaned up entire blocks in my free time, and have sprayed blocks of overgrown grass (my own money), I have purchased several cans for trash for people (my own money). There comes a point when you have to ask is all this trouble worth this headache. The drug addicts in the community have too many protections, the dealers have too many on their payroll. I just feel hopeless and depressed at times, I could be living in a much nicer community outside the city.

Hi Allen,

I certainly understand your frustration. I'd be lying if I said I didn't have moments where I've felt the same way. You certainly have a right to decide if this is worth it. A good neighbor of mine had to move his family because he was attacked by drug dealers. But this was because he was extremely confrontational with them.

My point is don't be confrontational with any of them. Be as polite as you can be then go upstairs and call 311 or 911 if you need to. After a while they won't associate police activity with you and they will eventually forget about you and it should reduce your fear of being attacked in your own neighborhood. And don't give up, change takes time, patience and a lot of effort.

Finally, are you aware of the amount of halfway houses for addicts in this zip code? There's a disproportionate amount. That's what's attracting the drug dealers. An effective neighborhood association could do something about this. Maybe we could take a look at that.

@ Anonymous

There are a huge numbers of halfway houses from what I understand. BBH, as well as independent properties owners rent to drug addicts and they usually are many to a single house I’m told. We are probably housing more in the 21223 than any other in city being BBH is right in our zip. Where there are addicts, there comes a lot of dealing as well. A lot of the residents are addicts as well, housed by welfare assistance. If you ever notice, the first and 15th or each month is the busiest for drug sales, because people get their assistance check. I suggested to this reporter that the sun should do a story and try to find out how many halfway houses we having in our zip and see what the numbers of addict seeking rehab are, let’s hope the sun takes interest. I personally feel the addict has too many rights, this is one reason you can't do much about having limits on the number of halfway houses. Addicts are protected by special legislation, and so anyone can set up as many halfway houses as they wish. Also, in the paper a while back there was a story on more funding coming to treat addict, this is all good but guess where they will be houses, in communities struggling with drugs already like ours. We need a massive campaign to protect the healthy against the sick, give them their right to treatment but not at the expense of others. Drug dealers follow addicts and addicts follow drug dealers it's a destructive force in the communities.

Allen,

Did you not visit this neighborhood before you bought your house? Did you drive through at night? Did you walk around, talk to people who already lived there? Your post reads like you woke up one day and suddenly found yourself transported to a place you had never visited before. Or maybe you thought all those drug dealers would magically disappear once you moved in ?

Hi romanTotale3rd

I went thru the neighborhood a few times. The neighborhood didn't look all that bad at the times I did go thru. It wasn't all rosy when I went thru, but I just didn't put too much focus on the bad I did see because it looked minimal. I noticed the Bio Park going in, the relatively nice area of Union Square and Mount Clare Mansion, I knew a few investors in Hollins Market and my area at the time too. I will not lie, I made a poor decision in trusting my agent’s opinions and those I spoke to in the area as well.
When it comes to the chronic drug issue, if you go thru the neighborhood, it's really odd how the addicts and dealers come out of their caves, it’s sporadic. I guess I just didn't hit the community at the right time to notice the activity.
I don't know, I thought I would be the "urban pioneer” too. When I do eventually move, you’re darn right I’ll do a better job of finding a new community. I fell for a lot of the first time home buyers ignorance too, the next time I will be wiser.
Bottom line though, the dealers are homeowners and renters. The addicts are dealers and renters. Many people can pass off as just poor as they walk down the street and not be the chronic addict or dealer they really are.

@ RomanTotale3rd

Do you think drug dealing is ok? Just wondering what you feel about dealer and addicts who are a problem to communities. If a home buyer moves to a community that's infested, do you think the new person should accept the drugs?

Sue,
I've lived in both DC and Baltimore. I'd say the change in SE DC has more to do with gentrification than an active group of citizens. DC has become a very expensive place to live, which has driven out the criminals. Until Baltimore has a stronger jobs base, I don't see that happening here. Only a certain number of fools (like myself) are willing to live in Baltimore and take the MARC train to work. Since the senseless murder in my neighborhood (Charles Village) my wife and are wondering if staying in DC wouldn't have been worth the price.

I have lived in Towson and Westminster where the drug problems were really bad. I have been robbed twice in Westminster, and the response from the police was not very well-executed. The problem persisted. I moved to Towson, and my car was stolen...and lots of petty theft stuff like stolen garbage cans. I had similar issues to the ones in 21223. I live near JHU, and I have never had a problem in 12 years. There is a very strong sense of community in my neighborhood (21218).

I am so confused and frustrated! What is really going on in Baltimore? I moved to this area only a few years ago and I have never seen anything like it! Why are people here so violent? Why are there so many drug addicts and dealers? Why are the police and politicians so passive about crime? This place needs a more “get tough” attitude toward crime and criminals. The criminals have more rights than tax paying citizens! Lock these idiots up FOREVER! They are not contributing to the well being of this community!

As a black man I must say that I am often embarrassed. Let’s be honest there is a problem within the black community especially with our young black men. I know that this is not a popular or politically correct thing to say but it is the truth. Hell…… I’m often scared of my own people!

Please don’t get me wrong I do understand that the people need help and support but Baltimore seems to cater to trashy people and criminals! I don’t think that the city is interested in attracting middle class people any more. This place is a mess! It has so much potential ….It makes me sad to see such a great city waste away.

Allen my advice to you is to move away as fast as you can! Life is too short and Baltimore will never change this lifetime. Baltimore has a people/culture problem – until you change the people it will never improve. I will stay here a few more years then move away with my middle class income.

I just want to apologize for my previous rant. Sorry. I just got so angry when I read Allens earlier post. I get so angry when I see decent people run out of their homes by thugs. I earlier this week spoke with someone in a similar situation… leaving his home because of thugs.

I apologize if I have offended any one.

Baltimore City needs to have a crackdown. I actually wouldn't mind seeing martial law.

If drugs were legal they wouldn't be profitable enough to resort to violence over, nor would they be profitable enough to support oneself from selling. In a free society one has the right to harm himself as he harms no one else. If you objectively analyse the mechanics of the war on drugs, you will see that most if not all of the harm to others comes from the fact that drugs are illegal.

Over half of all auto and home break-ins in Bmore are to steal stuff to support a drug habit. If drugs were legal, they'd be cheap, and if they were cheap, you wouldn't need to steal my stereo to pay for them.

In any event, this juicy, but fairly off RE topic discussion is one of the many reasons Jamie's blog is #1.

Baltimore City will never change because it is a ghetto. City ghettos will forever remain because where else will you stash the lower income people? They have to go somewhere.

If you can, save up some money and get away from Baltimore as fast as you can. The longer you stay, the greater your chances of being gunned down or robbed. I used to be a grad student in Baltimore and lived in persistent fear of my life and property.

To Allen in Mount Clare - 21223 - RUN don't walk!

I can tell you from having recently "RUNNING" from being a homeowner in Harlem Park - 21217, and now comfortably situated in the DC metro area, in a well kept, secured and gated (it is so nice that the majority of people are senoirs, or professionals) rental, that you have to protect "YOU" first...If you are afraid and depressed (which I was between the drugs and murders; not to mention how extremely underwater my house was) get out and rebuild. I feel like I have been living in a nightmare and just woke up. You couldn't give me a house in any zip code in Baltimore for $1! It isn't worth it on so many levels...Good luck!

I agree with a lot of these comments about the city, which is why I said in a previous post that I am moving out of the city because it will never change. Where I live is not even close to as bad as what Allen is going though so I can't even imagine what his days are like. Best of luck Allen, but it sounds like people are more concerned with the dealers and addicts than you.

Confused - You're comments are spot on, probably the best post about the city I have ever read. Run for office.

Read The Corner by David Simon and Edward Burns. It's a little dated, but it will give you insight into the drug trade in Baltimore City and why the government and people have been so powerless over it.

Don't run. Gentrification came much quickier to SE DC due to the strength of the Federal Jobs Market. Running from an urban home in Baltimore is not the right answer to Baltimore's ills. Being an urban pioneer myself, one must expect the struggle with the city's crime and drug problem. That doesn't mean you like it, just recognize the depth of it. The best way to deal with the need for change in this city is to be active in the community, get to know your neighbors, create a sense of community and be active and supportative of the neighborhood association and any crime fighting campaigns. Make your community attractive to others (and I don't mean vandals or thieves)to re-invest in the area. Keep your home spruced up, trim painted, flowers in the planter boxes. Make it evident that you believe in change and show how your home and community is inviting to others. I lived for over 6 years on the north edge of Patterson Park. Just south of the beleagured "East Side". I rehabbed a home there, loved the house and community, but disliked the negative factors of vandalism and crime. I left because I wanted to still be in the city but needed some outside space. I sold the Patterson Park house, made a handsome profit and moved near the JHU campus. I am now rehabbing this home, which has a small front and backyard that I enjoy. I have had several neighborhood house parties, lead a neighborhood yard sale and participate in the community association regular meetings. The point is I have gotten to know and like my neighbors and my new community, and I strive to support their interest in staying and being a part of our urban neighborhood. Looking for that positive change in all of the community and the city. Try it, maybe more change and gentrification will come.....there are a lot of benefits to urban living and the housing stock has such charm and potential, we just need more people to look to the positives and be a force for change to come.

allen, your post simply sums up the problems of city living. Your frustration is shared by many; some simply can't bring themselves to voice defeat. I inherited a large EOG rowhome several blocks from Patterson Park ten years ago. It took me three long years to simply clear the property. During those years I wrestled with a very real desire to keep this house. A great home in a nasty neighborhood. Yes, there were some neighbors that were wonderful but watching your back on a daily basis gets old. In the end, it boils down to drugs, crime and apathy. Wears you down, steals your soul. I still walk through that house in my mind, but it just wasn't meant to be. Good Luck.

LRC
That was very touching. I'm printing a few copies of your post to pass out to the next guy in 21223 who pulls a knife or a Glock....

yeah Allen, listen to LRC. Some of these people crack me. Allen your problems are solved. Just invite all the nice drug dealers and junkies over for a fun little BBQ and all will be fine. I'm sure the nice gentleman selling crack down the street would be willing to bring a side or maybe some sodas.

Wallace-

As a DC resident, I can tell you that urban pioneering has paid off for a lot of people here. Ghettos aren't forever; they move around.

However, it's dangerous to get too far ahead of the crowd. Harlem Park is cut off from downtown by freeways and two miles worth of bad, bad neighborhoods, places I'm scared to walk through in the daylight. I give it another 50 years before it gentrifies, and by then there may not be much left standing.

Allen - You should probably move. You could be waiting a long time for any improvement.

I agree with most of what LRC says, but I'm not sure it applies to Allen's case. You've got to have a decent block, and you can't be deep in the hard ghetto. North Patterson Park is borderline, so you can at least get in and out easily.

I think it's ironic that Anonymous suggested reading The Corner by David Simon -- the majority of the book is centered around Allen's zip code and the neighborhood he lives in. Pigtown, Mt. Clare, actually most of SW Baltimore is famous for nothing but crime and drugs.

Anyone with any sense at all would leave those neighborhoods and fast.

I've been having this conversation recently with several people. First point - there is crime everywhere, so pointing at certain areas like it's just located there, is really dumb.
Second point - I lived in Hollins by myself (single gal here) for several years, and I rarely felt unsafe or threatened, and I walked to and from work every day.
Third point - when I did suspect neighbors of dealing drugs, I called the police every.single.day, and it brought results relatively quickly (ie, the problem tenants were forced to move out).

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About Jamie Smith Hopkins
Jamie Smith Hopkins, a Baltimore Sun reporter since 1999, writes about the regional economy. Her reporting on the housing market has won national and local awards. Hopkins is a Columbia native and has lived in Maryland all her life, save for 10 months spent covering schools in Ames, Iowa.
She trained to become a wonk by spending large chunks of time as a geek and an insufferable know-it-all.
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