Real estate poll: Predict home prices
Wonk reader Jaded indirectly suggested today's poll when he predicted where home prices will head from here. I figured you all might like to play this parlor game.
Put on your forecasting hat and weigh in:
What does Jaded think? "I'm predicting a further 7-10% decline in home prices in the Baltimore metro area," he wrote in a comment Friday. (He didn't specify the time period, so this prediction might not be strictly comparable with the poll.)
He's hoping prices will fall, even though he's a homeowner:
"When are we going to realize that this market is still way over inflated and has nowhere to go but down? I know that no one wants to hear that but lower prices are the only thing that is going bring about equilibrium. I own my home and don't want its value to decline but in a few years I hope to be able to purchase a larger home and if prices go up I'll never be able to afford more house! I don't mind a little depreciation now in order to be able to move up later."
It makes sense that renters would root for lower home prices, but I think people (and certainly policymakers) assume that homeowners want the slump to be Over with a capital O. So, homeowners: Do you want prices to rise, or do you agree with Jaded?
Categories: Housing forecasts, Polls
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Comments
Housing is incredibly overpriced. With unemployment and general job uncertainty so high, how can prices not fall significantly?
A personal example of too high prices. My son and his fiance live in Howard County. Together, they earn into six figures, but they can't afford to buy a house in Howard County. Not even close.
Posted by: stretch | July 11, 2010 8:32 AM
poo tee weet.
Maybe if one of the categories included a what if the Feds stick their nose into markets again and try to falsely hold up a bottom?
10% down on the year for the Central Maryland region but it will be more in many places.
Oh yeah, I'm traveling through the west in my RV pretending to fly fish but mostly just hunting down good brew. There may be more breweries out here than trout rivers. Dunno if I'm ever coming back to B'more.
Ya'all be well.
Posted by: MrRational | July 11, 2010 7:47 PM
As much as it pains me as a homeowner, I think prices will be heading down another 5-10% over the next 8-12 months before bottoming out. With jobs in such trouble and the myth of "Real estate always goes up so get in now", there is going to be a long hangover even when they do hit bottom. Once jobs come back, prices will stabilize a little more, but it will be a few years until we even get close to 05-06 prices again. Just my opinion.
Posted by: M | July 12, 2010 7:29 AM
Has anyone noted the average home price is higher now then it was in 2000 yet the economy is worse?
I honestly feel bad for people who bought homes because the government dangled an $8,000 carrot in their face. The American dream is already the American nightmare.
My advice would be to rent and either save cash if you absolutely have a strange need to buy a home or invest for your retirement. Hell I would recommend buying BP or RIG over a home.
Housing to me is like a bio stock, a live hand grenade.
Posted by: ironhide | July 12, 2010 5:44 PM