Homebuilder optimism
For a time of uncertainty, newly expired homebuyer tax credits and less-than-wonderful economic news, homebuilders are feeling surprisingly optimistic.
Here and nationwide, they're aggressively buying up land. Permits for new homes are rising, too -- up 70 percent in the first four months of the year in the Baltimore metro area, compared with a year earlier. (Not enough to get back to boomtime numbers, of course, but it's a definite reversal after years of sharp pullback.)
More here, in case you missed this week's story on the topic.
Here are interesting tidbits from analyst Kenneth Wenhold that didn't make it into the article:
Wenhold, director of the Mid-Atlantic region for Metrostudy, a homebuilding market researcher, says the state's new-home market is healthy vs. the nation as a whole. We don't have a huge overhang of built-but-unsold inventory. And the supply of finished lots ready for building is low.
The remaining problem: all the no-longer-new homes. Individual homeowners trying to sell their residences are competition for builders, especially the homeowners trying to sell homes those same builders constructed a few years ago.
"The resale market is still relatively soft in Baltimore compared to the rest of the region," Wenhold said. "That's been a real Achilles heel."
The Baltimore area housing market took longer to soften than the Washington area in the wake of the boom, and he sees that as a reason why it's also taking longer to heal.
"But parts of it are starting to head in the right direction," he added -- in Anne Arundel and Howard particularly, the Janus counties that are both Baltimore and D.C. 'burbs.
Big homebuilders, flush with cash, are buying lots here and in markets across the country that aren't moribund. Result: Land prices are escalating back to the peak in stronger counties.
"If you own lots in Howard County, you can pretty much ask 2004 pricing and you'd be assured to sell them," he said. "Which is really amazing, when you think about what we've been through."
Builders are foreseeing shortages in the future -- there aren't many months' supply of lots in the area -- so they're positioning themselves accordingly. But some are concerned about the high prices. "It’s almost like it’s another little bubble," Wenhold said. (That's in the story, but I thought it was worth repeating.)
High-priced lots got big, pricey homes constructed on them in the boom times. Not so today:
"You're seeing a smaller home on a more expensive lot to try to keep the price down," he said.






