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March 7, 2010

The Baltimore-area housing market in living color

It takes a lot of number-crunching to show you the housing market by ZIP code and city neighborhood, but somebody's got to do it.

Today's story gives you the bird's eye view of the trends -- last year and still developing -- and comes with lots of cool extras for people who like to check things out for themselves.

Colorful maps, for instance, thanks to Sun cartographer Chris Schoenberg. Maps showing the change in average price last year in the region's ZIP codes and the city's neighborhoods, since ZIP codes in the city hide a lot of variation. Maps showing the change in the region and city, too. Even some maps from earlier times. (Give Chris three cheers, because without her cartographic skills, we couldn't sort city sales into their  neighborhoods and would have to make do with ZIP codes only.)

There's also a keen searchable database, put together by the inestimable Lauren Custer, which lets you look up the stats on all ZIP codes with at least five home sales in 2008 and 2009.

More interested in city neighborhood stats? Find an Excel file with sales by neighborhood here.

Did you buy or sell in 2009? How did it go?

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 1:00 AM | | Comments (10)
Categories: Housing stats
        

Comments

links don't seem to work

I write my posts at night, so the only links I can put in at first are to the page on baltimoresun.com where you'll find real estate stories and other business news. But now that the direct links exist, I've updated the post.

So the map confirms that although home prices are going down, sales are going up. The question is how much does the tax credit attribute to the increase in sales? When the tax credit expires the end of April, will the number of home continue to increase, or will they drop once again? If home sales drop as expected, will that push prices down even more? If home sales continue to increase after the tax credit expires, will that push prices up? My best guess is that after the summer we will see home sales and prices drop.

Jamie, great work. I like the maps and the database to query. Just a couple comments.

1) can you make the map available in a larger format. It is hard to make out the details within the city because the zips are so much more concentrated.

2) I tried querying the DB by community (Hampden, Canton, Charles Village) and no returned results.

3) can you make the raw data from the DB available?

Paul, glad you like the maps and database.

The database includes just ZIP codes, not city neighborhoods -- as it notes, you have to come here for the Excel chart to see the city neighborhood data. There's a link in this post to that city data.

I think the maps are displayed as large as our web staff can easily display them. I'll pass your request on, but you can always buy the Sunday paper . :-)

I live in North Baltimore and I was amused at the photo slideshow of the city's most expensive neighborhoods.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/real-estate/bal-most-expensive-neighborhoods-pg,0,2316091.photogallery

Picture #2 which is labeled the Orchards is actually in North Roland Park.

Picture #3 labeled North Roland Park/Poplar Hill isn't in North Roland Park or Poplar Hill. Given that I live in this area and I'm confident I've been up and down every street around here walking my dogs, I don't recognize the house. The property doesn't even look like its in Baltimore because of the trees in the background are mostly spruces and not hardwood.

The average sale prices for city neighborhoods can be misleading. Single family houses will always sell for more than a townhouse or condo/coop in the same neighborhood, which means the areas with fewer townhouses or condos will have higher average sale prices, even if other neighborhoods have higher average single family prices.

Tally, I gave the photographer the official city boundaries for The Orchards and believe he stayed within them. Unless it's a street that is half in one neighborhood and half the other?

The other photos were taken earlier for other stories, so I had to go with the designations given by the photographers. It's not uncommon for people to not know what neighborhood they live in -- by official city standards -- so subjects of stories might have misinformed the photographers. :-)

I have a post today about the higher-priced neighborhoods and note how averages are easily skewed. Check it out for a list of places where homes sold for at least $1 million.

Tally, now that I'm in the office I've tracked down the intersection where the house sits, and I had to laugh -- one street becomes The Orchards if you go just a bit north and the other street becomes The Orchards if you go just a bit east. That jagged western boundary must have thrown the photographer off.

We're swapping the photo out with one he took that's fully in the neighborhood, and making that large house the North Roland Park/Poplar Hill photo. Thanks!

Great article Jamie. The graphics make a big difference in helping people understand the numbers. I always have felt that because of the nature of Baltimore City neighborhoods in particular, using averages for the City, don't give a particularly good view of what's going on in a particular neighborhood. In addition, if activity in small geographic areas represent a disproportionate share of the sales activity, the overall market data is skewed when using averages. I posted my own analysis in Active Rain to make the point a few days earlier as it relates specifically to balto City if you want to check it out on my website, www.remarkableprop.com. (website in progress) (Market reports) I also link to your article. Will the maps also link through?

Judy, the maps should remain with the story as long as the story is on the website. Thanks for the link.

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About Jamie Smith Hopkins
Jamie Smith Hopkins, a Baltimore Sun reporter since 1999, writes about the regional economy. Her reporting on the housing market has won national and local awards. Hopkins is a Columbia native and has lived in Maryland all her life, save for 10 months spent covering schools in Ames, Iowa.
She trained to become a wonk by spending large chunks of time as a geek and an insufferable know-it-all.
Baltimore Sun articles by Jamie
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