November home sales in the Baltimore metro area
A. 36 percent
B. 63 percent
C. 77 percent
It's "C." ("A" was October's increase.)
That's far and away the biggest increase on record, though of course the record only goes back to the late 1990s when Metropolitan Regional Information Systems started tracking the area. This sure suggests that lots of people were waiting until what they thought was the last minute to get that $8,000 credit for first-time home buyers. (The credit was supposed to expire after Nov. 30. Instead, it was extended and expanded.)
The 2,247 homes sold last month is well above November 2007 as well as November 2008, but it's below previous Novembers on record. (Well below the bubble years, as you can imagine.)
Most deals take longer than a month to close, so presumably a large portion of these deals were struck before November. But the number of contracts signed last month in the metro area was also up -- just not a 77 percent sort of up. The increase was 24 percent over the previous year.
Average sale prices fell about 8 percent in the region.
Want more stats? You'll find MRIS data here.
So what do you predict for December? Or, for that matter, after the credit expires next year, assuming it does?
Categories: First-time buyer tax credit, Housing stats
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Comments
While this is obviously good news. There is another good number that you didn't report - the total dollar volume.
So unit volume is up, dollar volume is up, unit price is down. Hey 2 out of three is better than we have been doing!
Posted by: Ned Carey | December 10, 2009 9:33 PM
I never report total dollar volume, Ned. It matters to real estate agents and tax collectors, of course, but it's a lot less meaningful to buyers and sellers. Unless I'm missing something?
Posted by: Jamie Smith Hopkins | December 10, 2009 9:49 PM
Well every other industry besides real estate reports total dollar volume. That is the key number. For whatever reason it is traditional in real estate to talk about the number of sales much more so than the value of those sales.
When WalMart says sales are up for Christmas, they don't mean they did 1 million additional transactions because they sold a lot of Christmas cards. That would be meaningless. They mean the total dollar sales are up.
In a similar vein with real estate, to say unit sales are up and not mention the average price or dollar volume can present a distorted picture.
Total dollar volume is one number that takes into account both the number of sales and the price of each individual sale. It is also easy to compare this number to other periods. Why the industry chooses not to use it is beyond me. Unless as you said, I am missing something?
Posted by: Ned Carey | December 15, 2009 11:40 PM
I always report sales and average prices, the two parts of total dollar volume. And the reason I do that is because they're more meaningful apart than added together as indicators of the housing market.
Retail is a one-way business -- stores sell, consumers buy -- so volume works pretty well as an indication of retail health. But in residential real estate, consumers are buying AND selling. So it's useful for us all to know how many and for how much.
Posted by: Jamie Smith Hopkins | December 16, 2009 9:25 AM