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October 8, 2009

Rocky road ahead for the housing market, firm warns

John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a California firm that analyzes the U.S. housing market, is not part of the chattering class that thinks the bottom is here or near. The company warns in its most recent newsletter that it sees a "massive supply of homes" coming down the pike via foreclosure.

More supply means more downward pressure on prices, the firm notes:

For a number of reasons, banks have not been aggressively taking title to homes and selling them, which has resulted in very few distressed sales in comparison to the actual level of distress in the market. This delay in REO sales, along with historically low mortgage rates and an $8,000 tax credit, has helped to stabilize the housing market - temporarily.

It is very clear that price stabilization is temporary unless something is done.

What sort of "massive supply" numbers are we talking about? Pretty, um, massive: One out of every 10 U.S. homeowners is behind on mortgage payments, John Burns Real Estate estimates. Not one in 10 homeowners with mortgages. One in 10 homeowners, period.

I keep hearing from local real estate agents that they're seeing foreclosed homes that haven't been put on the market yet by lenders. Is this true near you?

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 7:00 AM | | Comments (7)
Categories: The foreclosure mess
        

Comments

Oh, totally. I check Redfin and SDAT sale records from time to time to check house sales and a huge chunk are foreclosures in our price range (below 300K, Howard County). It would be nice if some came on the market for the first time homebuyers who are bidding each other out of houses, but I know that's not how the world works:)

I have a rental where I lost a Baltimore Housing Choice voucher tenant because I failed the inspection. I contacted Chase to get a line of credit on the property, and they told me that the home was worth about 30K of the 70K I owed, and that it was losing value as we spoke.

I lost that tenant last year November, and haven't paid the mortgage since...I have no income from the place. Chase refused to allow me to do a deed in lieu or a short sale, and it hasn't been foreclosed yet. I haven't received any more bills, but they are hitting my credit every month...Yet, they haven't even started the process. I am just going to file a bankruptcy to get them off of my back...I don't know what they are doing.

In the small area that I'm looking at, I know of at least two homes that are REO but haven't hit the market yet. I suspect that there are many more.

In addition to the properties the banks already have control over but aren't actively selling are the properties (somewhat like Duane's) where the banks are allowing the owner to remain in place (and mow the lawns) as an unofficial "debtor in possession" and then there the ones that the owner hasn't defaulted on yet and may not for some months to come... but that everyone who can see their bank account cashflow know that day gets closer every month.

The foreclosure wave hasn't hit in Baltimore. There is the completely empty Ritz Carlton building on someone's books. Silo point is still largely empty. Numerous other smaller developments all over the city. If you think the bottom is in, you haven't been paying attention.

My real estate agency is seeing this all the time in San Diego. I'm amazed to find new listings, foreclosures and short sales come up, then realizing that these were simply being hidden by banks or lenders for a longer frame of time. It makes it much more difficult to sell after it is simply sitting in the market for a longer time because there are not as many selling points when there is no upkeep. Finding the foreclosed properties first and changing the approach to buying and selling is the first step to get lenders to stop sitting on the property.

The tide is going out -- time to see who is wearing a swim suit!

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About Jamie Smith Hopkins
Jamie Smith Hopkins, a Baltimore Sun reporter since 1999, writes about the regional economy. Her reporting on the housing market has won national and local awards. Hopkins is a Columbia native and has lived in Maryland all her life, save for 10 months spent covering schools in Ames, Iowa.
She trained to become a wonk by spending large chunks of time as a geek and an insufferable know-it-all.
Baltimore Sun articles by Jamie
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