Home prices ... up?
Home prices in the Baltimore metro area were among the weakest in the nation this summer, but there are some hopeful signs for frustrated sellers, according to a new report by a real estate data firm.
Prices rose a tenth of a percent in the metro area in the four months ending Sept. 25 vs. the previous three months, California-based Clear Capital said. That’s lower than all but two other major housing markets — Las Vegas and Tucson, Ariz.
But you'll notice that prices are up, not down. It’s the first break in price declines for the Baltimore area since the summer of 2007, the report said.
Kevin Marshall, president of Clear Capital, thinks earlier increases in other parts of the country had a psychological effect on Baltimore buyers.
"People get very scared in real estate that they’re going to miss the bottom," he said. "You have people making decisions based off, for lack of a better term, fear that they’re missing a really good deal."
Clear Capital draws its data from recorders’ and assessors’ offices, calculating price by comparing repeat sales of the same homes over the years. Why the odd "four months ending Sept. 25" vs. the previous three months? Because, Marshall said, the company wants to balance out the desire to include the most up-to-date numbers with the reality that the newest data is often incomplete. So it includes an extra month of sales.
Overall, the metro area has seen more modest price declines than the country as a whole, the report says: 21 percent here since the housing market peaked in 2006 vs. nearly 32 percent nationally.
But decreases have accelerated locally in the last year while moderating elsewhere. Prices fell more than 12 percent in the metro area compared with last summer, compared with just under 10 percent nationwide.
The metro area’s healthiest spot seems to be the 20723 ZIP code in Laurel, where prices fell less than 1 percent vs. a year ago. The report credits the community’s location between Baltimore and Washington.
Hardest-hit was Edgewood, ZIP code 21040 in Harford County. Prices fell almost 25 percent from a year ago, and 34 percent of its sales were homes that had been taken back by banks.
Just under 20 percent of sales in the Baltimore metro area were foreclosed homes, the report estimates. That’s lower than the national average of about 29 percent, reflecting a high level of foreclosures in some markets.
In Las Vegas, for instance, six in every 10 sales this summer were foreclosed homes.
Categories: Housing stats, The foreclosure mess
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Comments
Jaime, do you have a link to the one year zip code percentage difference?
Posted by: Jeff | October 7, 2009 8:43 AM
Hi, Jeff -- the link I gave (the one attached to the company's name on first reference) sends you directly to the report. It only lists the two ZIP codes I mentioned, though -- top and bottom.
Posted by: Jamie Smith Hopkins | October 7, 2009 8:48 AM
Home prices very much depend on the area of the home. That aside, a lot of people still just can not afford the prices out there now. What with the instability of the job market, and the fact that wages are still at the 1980's level.
Posted by: Anonymous | October 7, 2009 1:53 PM
Housing sales are going to pick up once we hit late 1990's prices. And we will.
Posted by: Darwin Rules | October 7, 2009 2:30 PM
Darwin, if they don't, at what point will you stop repeating this? I have no idea what prices are going to do but really, we've all heard you say this countless times here. We got it. How about some more depth and breadth to your opinion here?
Posted by: Lesley | October 7, 2009 8:04 PM
Lesley
Probably around late 2011-early 2012.
Posted by: Darwin Rules | October 7, 2009 9:41 PM
Lesley, remember the scene in the movie "Blast From the Past" when Christopher Walken is explaining a baseball squeeze play to Brendan Frasier? "They must!"
As to depth and breadth.. this is real estate not transcendental philosophy. But if you ever want to go there I prefer Pirsig to Kant.
Posted by: MrRational | October 7, 2009 9:51 PM
MrRational- Lol. Some might argue Real Estate has come to resemble Ayn Rand's philosophy. But I'm going with the French Situationists staging high art to prove their point.
Darwin: I think I'm beginning to adore you.
Posted by: lesley | October 7, 2009 11:55 PM
duh-huh? I don't get it
Posted by: Darwin Rules | October 8, 2009 10:51 AM
Darwin Rules is overly optimistic. Look at Japan: houses are down 75% in some areas from 1987 prices and our collapse was even worse.
Late 70's prices. Guaranteed. The signs are clear.
I am taking out a home equity line of credit to short CS Indexes on margin because 10 million shadow homes will hit the market and cause a total implosion.
Buy gold. Those late night TV ads are spot on.
Posted by: "Little Debbie" | October 8, 2009 3:25 PM