Analysis: Expect 11 percent drop in home prices
Here's another analysis to make home sellers groan and first-time buyers cheer: financial analysis firm Fiserv expects prices will fall just over 11 percent -- here and nationally -- in the 12 months ending next June.
If its forecast for an 11.4 percent decline in median home prices in the Baltimore metro area proves accurate, local homeowners are facing a slightly bigger one-year decline than they've already weathered. Prices fell just under 11 percent from June '08 to June '09.
So what about the housing-market bottom we've all heard so much about for, oh, the last few years? Fiserv sees Baltimore-area prices stabilizing after the middle of 2010. In June 2011, it forecasts, prices will be up almost 1 percent from a year earlier.
For the U.S. as a whole, the company expects a price bump-up of 3.6 percent.
There are a lot of housing-market question marks right now that make forecasting tricky.
Will the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit expire Nov. 30 as planned? Get extended? Get expanded to all buyers? What about the job market -- will companies stop laying off anytime soon? And are foreclosure rates going to improve soon or just get worse?
So: What's your forecast?