The optimism of homeowners
Zillow says it found a significant amount of "shadow inventory" waiting in the wings -- homes that people want to sell but haven't marketed yet. Almost one in three homeowners polled said "they would be at least 'somewhat likely' to put their homes on the market in the next 12 months if they saw signs of a real estate market turnaround," according to the poll.
Stan Humphries, Zillow's vice president of data and analytics, had this to say in a press release:
While homeowners are now more realistic when looking backward, they are still pretty starry-eyed when looking forward with three out of four homeowners believing that their own homes' prices will increase or be flat over the next six months. Unfortunately, there are few markets we expect to perform this well. ...With almost a third of homeowners poised to jump into the market at the first sign of stabilization, this could create a steady stream of new inventory adding to already record-high inventory levels, thus keeping downward pressure on home prices.
The Northeast, which includes Maryland in this poll, was the most optimistic. It was the only region with less than a quarter of polled homeowners expecting continued declines in value.
Zillow said its poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive last month, with about 2,100 adults participating. Wonks eager to know the margin of error will be disappointed: "This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated," the company says in its press release.







Comments
Four years ago were the days of multiple bids as the buyers fought over the (fat) sellers homes, with the greasy slovenly realtor standing there with a fistful of dollars and a a you-know-what eating grin.
Sellers are delusional if they think these days will return.
I hope for the day when sellers fight it out on the streets, over the single buyer weilding rare pre-approval papers, with the gaunt, sleep deprived realtor in the backround, too moribund to even utter a word...
Posted by: Darwin Rules | May 14, 2009 10:20 AM
Those are rather frightening poll results. People are just as out of touch with reality as they were last year. I'm really shocked that people honestly think things will be improving soon.
Darwin Rules, I also hope for that day. For too long the market has really stuck it to buyers, particularly those wanting to live within their means. With housing expenses, insurance, taxes, media connections, internet, upkeep, utilities, and more constantly finding new excuses to increase I sometimes wonder how much longer until it all comes crashing down on even more people.
Posted by: BigDragon | May 14, 2009 7:43 PM
We can hope, but I do realize that we are up against a big adversary in our government, who seem determined to support irresponsibility, incompetance, and mediocrity come hell or high water.
Posted by: Darwin Rules | May 15, 2009 9:31 AM
Why did all the rich people out there stop trading up houses? Who stopped paying more and more for houses? Keep the pyramid scheme going, man! Please! How will people know you are rich if you stay in the same house? Put bids in at double the asking price for a bigger house! Come on rich people. We can do it! Who needs first time buyers!
Posted by: AIG EMPLOYEE | May 15, 2009 12:55 PM
First, the more government programs devoted to stimulating or putting a floor under house prices, the worse the long term consequences. A few years ago a good one was the charitable grants (Nehiamiah?) that were simply added on to selling prices. That wound up being riddled with fraud ended badly.
Secondly, one had only to look at what started happening when people were buying marginal properties in good communities, "rehabbing" them and flipping them for profits. That in and of itself is not a bad thing but one could see the end in 2005 when people started to pass on these as they became too expensive. The rehabbers were paying too much at the front end and thought they could continue on the cost plus approach indefinitely. I might add the game was over when people started buying properties within the better areas that were bad properties to begin with!
At the risk of being too verbose I will cite a prime example. There was a 1950's house on Charles St (4100 blk) tucked in among grander homes., In other words it was anomalous to it's setting. A speculator bought it for $435K or so plus transaction costs, put around $150K in it (I am guessing there) and expected to resell it for over $800K because it was in Guilford. He wound up trying to auction it after it did not sell, decided to relist it and wound up over a year later getting $590K for it. He got killed on that one. There are a lot more like that and the foreclosures reflect it.
This has to be purged and we have to start over on a sustainable basis. prices have to go where they need to go despite some of us being under water. If you borrowed or paid too much take your medicine and get over it.
Posted by: Bob Kean | May 18, 2009 7:41 AM