Oversupply in the suburbs
About 50 percent of Americans actually do want that configuration. But if we’ve built 80 percent of our housing that way, that’s the definition of oversupply. The other 50 percent of Americans want walkable urban arrangements and yet that’s just 20 percent of the housing stock.
Asked by the Infrastructurist when he thought supply and demand would get back into balance, Leinberger said: "Upwards of 30 years."
He means overall supply, not just what's on the market. But that did get me curious about the number of homes on the market vs. sales in the various local jurisdictions. So I checked January figures from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems to see what was what.
The Baltimore-area county with the highest number of unsold homes last month -- 23 for every sold one -- was Carroll, which certainly does have a lot of the low-density developments Leinberger is talking about. On the other hand, Howard -- home to urbanish Columbia but also many McMansions -- was lowest, with 13 unsold homes per sale.
Baltimore County had 15 unsold homes per sale last month. Baltimore City, Anne Arundel and Harford all had about 19.
The thing is, all the 'burbs around here have some rural spots, some swaths of big-house-big-lot and some more urban places. What I really needed to look at was a truly exurban place. So I checked Queen Anne's, across the Bay Bridge.
Forty-four unsold homes for every home that sold last month.
January's never a big month for home sales, but: Ouch.
Leinberger does think suburbs can adapt. If you like them as is, what appeals to you? If you don't, what would you change? And do you agree or disagree with his argument?
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Comments
You are always correct... This Atlantic article was published a year ago. It is even more pragmatic today, unless you are prepared to raise a family in Yurt in a developing nation.
Your press has been awful for Baltimore City, even during the times while fairing well. I'm not sure how much damage the local media or politics has had - it is more than none.
I understand that Baltimore employs you, but you have never left Columbia...
Does the City really look as bad as you make it seem? Would you ever live here, send your kids to school here? Would you do anything about it? Do you care at all?
Would you ever fight for a change?
Believe it or not, your influence has made a mark, its hurt. You rule this city's real estate perspective. You can make difference. Your opinion along with (L.M.) could do something. I respect that you have chosen to do something else. But?
Where are your opinions on greener-tech (we have flat roofs), mass transit, staging, and real estate friendly biz?
: Can another City Realtor in town stand up here? Please don’t shrink, stand up! Stop being such wimps? I am getting tired. I'm really tired. She may rule.
Posted by: Dunn | February 12, 2009 2:13 PM
You grew up in Columbia and never left. I agree with you... If I grew up there and never left, trashing the city would make me feel better.
Posted by: Dunn | February 12, 2009 2:23 PM