A measure of housing risk
PMI, which puts out a "market risk" index that predicts the chance of home prices falling in two years, says the Baltimore metro area's risk ranking has risen a notch from "minimal" to "low." (Above those categories are "moderate," "elevated" and "high.")
The newest index is for the second quarter of the year and puts the metro area's likelihood of price decline at 10 percent, up from about 5 percent in the first quarter. The Washington metro area, at "moderate" risk, has a 26 percent chance, according to the index. (The index uses the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight measurement of home prices, in case you were wondering.)
You can find wildly divergent opinions from economists on most any issue, and this is no exception. Some think significant price declines in the Baltimore metro area are very likely. But I doubt there would be much disagreement about the areas PMI believes are most at risk: The top five are all in Florida or California.
Sign up for the At Home newsletter 
