The large suburban apartment development may be the most accurate source for data doing year to year comparisons to whatever else in an area.

Unless... that particular LL has backed themselves into a corner like all the new "accidental landlords" with overly high purchase numbers, or refi's, or heloc loans that MUST be paid (see the recent eviction articles). And the otherwise well run apt complex isn't immune from refinance errors though it is less likely.

Then there is the general run up in market price of everything real estate related over the last several years, and yes the run up in rentals is also (mostly) based on delusion, as opposed to actual increases in operating costs.

This applies to plain vanilla suburban as much as it does to the avant-garde areas.

Have a great day everyone.

Thanks for the hat tip Jamie. I'd have to agree its very hard to find comparables between rents and mortgage prices due to the reasons you state. I've only been able to do the analysis on a per unit basis. I like to do the analysis on Mays Chapel North condos in Timonium since they cost a lot to own and much less to rent, plus its considered a very desirable place to reside. Many of the accidental landlords ask for outrages rents, but nobody rents them. The rental inventory is sitting on the market just as bad as the resale inventory My wife and I are currently negotiating with several landlords in Mays Chapel North and they are in a price dropping war to get my business. Yes you read that correctly, a price dropping war. I guess they cant afford to keep paying their mortgages when they are sitting vacant...go figure.

In Baltimore City rents tend to be high downtown and in trendy areas. Often buying is a more afforadable option especially since there are deals to be had. If the average downtown rent is $2,000 per month. It is reasonable to expect to be able to buy a home in Canton, Fed. Hill or Patterson Park that has been fully rehabbed and in good condition, larger than the rental, with a yard, possibly parking and roof deck. I sell these types of houses regularly and rarely is the monthly bill more than $1800 usually with $0 down (yes it still happens), then you figure in the tax incentives (HUGE), interest rates are much lower than in March, figure that we are near or at the bottom of the market and one could expect some mild gains down the road. It would appear to be a no brainer.

@Dunn, ever heard of all these nationwide "no brainer" consequences? Foreclosure is meant.

Dunn - Obviously your a bias realtor, my agent almost got me on the so called tax incentives, but they expire and you have to apply for them and get them approved. Also there is this thing called cash flow and bumping up to 6 exemptions is a trick, you should not buy a house for a tax-break, it's like paying $1 to save 40 cents.
I've looked 20 homes this April and May and what would be that price is stuff north and east of patterson park(blue light district) or near the railroad tracks in Fed Hill. The stuff in the good areas for that price are pretty junky rehab with low end appliances and cheap paint.
Prices have dropped about 10%. They probably have about 20-30% more to go. The taxes in this city are too high for what you get thus the property needs to come down to match.

I'm starting to think the more I talk to realtors in Baltimore city your also a bunch a scammers. Some of the short sales I've seen had some pretty intersting apprisals.

Can't wait till 20% down is the norm and interest rates go to 9%. I'd rather buy with high interest rate beacuse it will drive the price down and i can always refi later when they come back down. The low rates now are just to bail out the banks. The consequence is a falling dollar and $4.00 gas as all that liquidy the Fed Reserve made had to go somewhere as everyone knows housing is not an investment it is consumption. They (interest rates) will re-adjust up after the election.
But what do I know?

That's about right for the Towson area I think they charge more because the area is clean and they hit the out of town NY/NJ college student for everything they can.

The rents downtown I've noticed have been coming down in the "trendy" areas as people are not going to pay 2k a month for a 2 bedroom place with no parking. Also sharing a rowhome with adults is not fun, they are too small and most people never stay together as a group after 1 year.
Why....the smallish size.

I do know that renting from someone who bought in the past 3 years is probably a risk. Most of them are landlords out of necessity and are bad at that. The best places are going to be an owner who bought back in 2001 before the bubble started as that's when places made sense as an investment. They know how to deal with tenants and know the laws.

I still think it will be 2012 before we bottom in the city and that's only if the economy holds up. Too many of my friends who want to "buy" in canton can't without 100% loans because they have credit card and student loan debt. Interesting to see how many realtors shake out as well, I'm sure some are already in another profession as the gravy train is gone.

house prices move with jobs and income. they disassociated from them over the last few years, aided by the crazy financing schemes available. Obviously we are seeing an unwind in the financing schemes, a Minsky-style deflation event.

But jobs and incomes in the Baltimore area aren't down...maybe Jamie can provide some data. Absent a broad economic downturn in the local economy, these dire predictions of a multi-year bear market in house prices across the region are probably unfounded. If we get the projected job growth in the region (BRAC, Hopkins, etc), the supply will be absorbed.

Tim

Hi, Tim. Here's that data you wanted:

Baltimore metro area jobs are up by about 11,000 over the past 12 months. The last time we saw a year-over-year drop was in 2003, the end of the hangover from the '01 recession.

Median household income in the metro area was about $66,000 in 2006, the most recent figures from the Maryland Department of Planning. That's up from prior years, though I'd have to adjust the numbers to know whether incomes have risen even after inflation is taken into account.