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June 21, 2008

'I would like to say that a turnaround is imminent ...'

Andy Bauer, regional economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's Baltimore office, answers questions at baltimoresun.com about the economy. A recent one -- when do you think the housing market will start turning around for sellers?

Here's his answer:

I would like to say that a turnaround is imminent but there is nothing in the data or in conversations with industry contacts that would suggest a turnaround. I have heard that in the most sought-after zip codes there have been signs of price stabilization and sales have improved. In addition, there has been some activity this spring. However, it is still too early to say if that activity will be sustained -- we experienced a similar pickup in activity in 2007.

There is still a significant imbalance in terms of supply and demand in the market, and it will take some time to work through these imbalances. Inventory levels of homes for sale remain very high, delinquencies and foreclosures continue to rise, and prices are declining in many areas. To underscore the inventory situation, in the Baltimore-Towson metropolitan area it would take 13 months at the current sales pace to sell a single family home. This figure is up dramatically from 2 months during the years before the housing boom. The question for 2008 is how much further will prices need to adjust in order to clear the excess inventory on the market.

Read more economic questions-and-answers HERE.
Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 6:05 AM | | Comments (0)
        

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About Jamie Smith Hopkins
Jamie Smith Hopkins, a Baltimore Sun reporter since 1999, writes about the regional economy. Her reporting on the housing market has won national and local awards. Hopkins is a Columbia native and has lived in Maryland all her life, save for 10 months spent covering schools in Ames, Iowa.
She trained to become a wonk by spending large chunks of time as a geek and an insufferable know-it-all.
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