« March 2008 | Main | May 2008 »

April 30, 2008

Fed cuts rates again

It's perhaps no longer news when the Federal Reserve cuts rates, but hey -- just to get it on the record: The Fed knocked down its benchmark "federal funds" rate a quarter-point to 2 percent. As the Associated Press notes, that's the lowest it's been since late 2004:
It marked the seventh consecutive rate cut by the central bank since it began easing credit conditions last September to combat the growing threat of a recession brought on by a deep housing slump and credit crisis.

You can read the Fed's statement HERE. A taste:

Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.

Putting a dollar figure on the decline

Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a Washington think tank, has an analysis today about the newest S&P/Case-Shiller home price figures. He notes:
The Case-Shiller data released yesterday indicate the rate of house price decline is accelerating. The 20-city index declined 12.7 percent over the last year, while the 10-city index fell 13.6 percent. However, the annual rate of price decline over the last quarter was 24.9 percent in the 20-city index and 25.8 percent in the 10-city index. At this rate of price decline, the excesses of the housing bubble will have largely disappeared by the end of the year. At the same time, the price decline implies an incredibly rapid loss of wealth. In real terms, the rate of price decline in the 20-city index would imply a loss of almost $6 trillion in real housing wealth over the course of the year, an average of $85,000 per homeowner.

In 2004, Baker was so convinced that a bust was coming that he sold his Washington home -- which had tripled in value in seven years -- and started renting.

Latest personal info leak is mortgage-related

Liz Kay reports today that personal information -- including Social Security numbers -- "of about 56,000 Maryland consumers was compromised when several former employees of LendingTree.com, an online mortgage lending exchange, gave three mortgage brokers unauthorized access to company databases."

The story, which you can read HERE, notes that the former employees gave company-database passwords to three California brokerages, which tried to sell loans to several thousand U.S. customers. (Or, as Hugh Williams of the Maryland attorney general's office's identity theft program puts it, they "illegitimately got their information for a legitimate business purpose.")

However, because the databases contained the names, dates of birth, Social Security numbers and income information for more than 56,000 Maryland customers who contacted LendingTree from October 2006 to December, the company sent letters to all of them about the security breach.

April 29, 2008

Homeownership rate heading downward

The share of people who own their homes has been steadily falling during the slump as more turn to renting -- either by choice or necessity. The homeownership rate is now at 2002 levels, according to numbers put out this week by the Census Bureau:

HomeownershipRateSmall2.jpg

In case you're squinting at the figures (sorry),  the chart follows the rate during the first quarter of the years 1968-2008. It peaked in 2005 at 69.1 percent and is now at 67.8 percent.

A variety of industry experts and economists have suggested that the homeownership rate got too high during the boom, pushed upward by loose lending and a political focus on turning renters into owners.

The downward trend of the last few years isn't as steep as the falloff during the early- to mid-1980s, when high interest rates (as in 18 percent in some months) made buying difficult. It's not over until it's over, of course.

Fannie Mae weighs in

Daniel Mudd, president and chief executive of mortgage financier Fannie Mae, was in Baltimore today to speak to business journalists about housing and lending. Naturally we wanted to know where he thinks the housing market stands in the slump/recovery cycle, and this was his answer:

"It's very popular right now to say that we're in the third inning or we're in the fifth inning or we've in the seventh inning or all kinds of different places. And I think the reality of it is that nobody knows where we are right now. This is terra incognita. ... We think at Fannie Mae that '08 is going to be a tough year, kind of a continuation of the end of 2007. '09 will be similar, and we'll start to see some recovery and growth in '10."

More on this topic in tomorrow's paper.

April 28, 2008

More vacant homes

The country's homeowner vacancy rate -- empty homes for sale -- hit a record in the first three months of this year, the Census Bureau said today. Some 2.9 percent of homes were vacant, the highest figure for a quarter since recordkeeping began in 1960.

The Census, perhaps expecting heart palpitations, notes that this isn't "statistically different" from the 2.8 percent rate in the first and fourth quarters of last year. But it's certainly a significant jump from the 1.8 percent vacancy rate in the beginning of 2005.

The vacancy rates range by region: 2 percent in the Northeast, 2.9 percent in the Midwest and 3.2 percent in both the South and West. Census counts Maryland as part of the southern region.

How-to Monday: Homesharing

HomesharingStAmbroseSmall.jpg

Photo of homesharers courtesy of St. Ambrose Housing Aid Center

 

For 20 years now, St. Ambrose Housing Aid Center in Baltimore has run a matchmaking service. Think empty rooms, not lonely hearts.

The nonprofit helps Baltimore and Baltimore County homeowners with space to spare find people looking for a room to rent, and vice versa. The program, launched by employee Mark Benson, was conceived as a way to get elderly residents some extra income and companionship but has proved to be popular with younger homeowners, too.

"It's one of the most creative things we do," says Vincent Quayle, executive director of St. Ambrose, which is best known for its housing counseling and foreclosure prevention work.

St. Ambrose Homesharing has made 1,180 matches all told -- about 60 a year. Room rent is typically $400 to $450 in the city and about $500 in the county.

Sometimes personalities don't mesh. But things usually work out pretty well, St. Ambrose says.

"Knock on wood, we have not had any serious problems," says Annette L. Brennan, the program director. "We screen very carefully from the outset."

The homeowner and home seeker can each ask for a criminal background check on the other party -- it costs about $15 to run one. Beyond that, St. Ambrose wants references, assurances that participants have been drug-free and sober for at least a year and a doctor's report from anyone dealing with a chronic condition. The nonprofit conducts interviews, too -- on site with homeowners so it can check out the property and neighborhood. (For its efforts, it asks for a $5 fee from the home seeker and $15 from the homeowner.)

Homesharing can be a flexible arrangement. Sometimes home seekers barter services in exchange for rent. Sometimes homeowners are willing to take people with a lousy credit rating. Sometimes folks stay together for just a few months while the renter sells an out-of-state house, and sometimes they live together for years.

A few times, St. Ambrose has helped match renters with homeowners who needed extra money to avoid foreclosure.

"Most of it is the universe just happens to smile on us," says Brennan, noting that homeowners might have to wait for a while until they find the right match.

Eileen L. Lewis, a Catonsville homeowner who has taken in renters for years through St. Ambrose, said she likes the experience. The renters' payments -- $375 for one room, $400 for the other -- help her financially, and she's happy to think that she's helping them avoid the much pricier cost of an apartment.

Sometimes it hardly seems as if she's sharing her house, her renters are so quiet.

"Everybody respects the space," she says. 

Want more information? Call St. Ambrose Homesharing at 410-366-6180 or email annetteb@stambros.org.

Looking for other information on the topic? Click HERE for the National Shared Housing Resource Center.

April 27, 2008

Mapping the ripple effects

Lorraine Mirabella reports today about the housing slowdown's impact on more than $1 billion worth of large-scale, high-profile developments planned for the city:
The projects, including towers that would be Baltimore's tallest, would swell the tax base and potentially attract new - and well-heeled - city dwellers. But the housing slump has dulled the market for new condominiums and houses, and the subsequent credit crunch has made financing difficult to obtain.

As a result, at least 11 major projects have been recast or are in limbo, waiting out the market. At the Inner Harbor, two sites planned for condominium and hotel skyscrapers are still parking lots. In Charles Village, the neighborhood's first proposed luxury condo building is on hold and likely to switch to apartments. And in Greektown, plans for 1,000 new residences on a gritty lot have been drastically scaled back.

It's full steam ahead for some large projects, though, including the Westport redevelopment.

Want more details? There's a map in addition to the story. Click HERE to see both. 

April 26, 2008

Permit to build

Homebuilders have responded to the slump by pulling back on new inventory, as you all probably know quite well already. But they haven't done so in equal measure across the state and region.

So you can see that at a glance, I spent the morning making the Maryland Department of Planning's building-permit statistics more visual.

Here's the trend for residential permits statewide, first quarter 2000 through first quarter 2008:

 

PermitsStateSmall.jpg

 

Read on for the local experience ...

PermitsMetroAreaSmall.jpg

 

PermitsAASmall.jpg

 

PermitsBaltCitySmall.jpg

 

PermitsBaltCoSmall.jpg

 

PermitsCarrSmall.jpg

 

PermitsHarfSmall.jpg

 

PermitsHoCoSmall.jpg

 

I'm figuring that the reason many jurisdictions saw a downward trend during the early boom years has more to do with zoning restrictions and crowded schools than demand. In any case, it's interesting to see how Baltimore City's permits peaked in '07, well into the slump. And how Baltimore County's permits in the first quarter of this year actually top -- by quite a bit -- the permits in the first quarter of 2005. And how Carroll's permits have dwindled away to a shadow of their former self.

OK, I've wonked away enough of my Saturday. If you care to pick up where I've left off, click HERE to see the state data.

April 25, 2008

State of Md. opens center -- in New Jersey

Hoping the housing market will revive when relocating government workers and contractors move in to the region as part of the base realignment and closure process? Then you'll be interested to hear that the state is having a grand opening today for its newest one-stop career center -- this one located at Fort Monmouth in New Jersey. That's one of the bases slated to send personnel here.

Not surprisingly, this is the state's first out-of-state center.

From the Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation's press release:

The center will be staffed by professionals to serve New Jersey families moving from Fort Monmouth to Maryland. Resources available at the center include job search and training information, tools for professionals who will need to be registered or licensed to work in Maryland, community and housing resources, and a host of other resources to help prepare for the move.

It's an open question how many people will actually make that move. The Army addresses the issue in a BRAC Q&A:

How many Monmouth civilians are expected to refuse to move to Aberdeen? Has Fort Monmouth done any surveys that indicate what employees are thinking?

... [I]t is much too early to estimate with any accuracy how many employees may or may not go to Aberdeen. We did recently survey our workforce, however, and about 30% of our employees indicated they were likely to relocate to Aberdeen. However, this is at best a very preliminary estimate. What we can say is that based on the high number of personnel eligible for retirement in our workforce, we expect a lot of our employees to retire between now and the movement date, which will of course reduce the percentage of our current workforce who would relocate.

Of course, someone will have to fill those Aberdeen Proving Ground jobs. One assumes they'll either have to move here from somewhere (if not Fort Monmouth) or they're already living here now. And if they're already here now and aren't unemployed, they'll leave vacancies at their current jobs that will have to be filled, potentially by people from out of town ...

Oh the dominos.

A moving message

"BUY2DAY," said the license plate of a Range Rover driving up Calvert Street this morning. Yes, the driver does mean real estate, not stocks or bonds: "Consult a Realtor" was the message on the license plate frame.

Seen any other real-estate-related license plates lately? Or do you have a clever one of your own?

April 24, 2008

New homes for Brewers Hill

A developer is planning to build up to 485 luxury apartments in Baltimore's Brewers Hill neighborhood, Lorraine Mirabella reports today -- though it's not as big a project as the city originally expected:
A Houston-based apartment developer has a site south of O'Donnell Street under contract and plans two four-to-five story residential buildings that would include street-level shops and parking.

The plan is scaled back from a much larger residential component envisioned when city planners approved development in Brewers Hill about five years ago.

Want to know more? Click HERE for the story.

April 23, 2008

Sign of the times?

The Los Angeles Times reports on a tiny (but still depressing) trend:
In what appears to the latest symptom of the U.S. mortgage and credit crisis, insurers, law enforcement agencies and state agencies nationwide have reported a jump in the past year in home and automobile fires set by owners unable to pay their debts. The numbers are small but are leading the insurance industry to scrutinize more closely what seem to be routine blazes.

No break in city property taxes

No new tax decreases: John Fritze reports today that Mayor Sheila Dixon "is abandoning a long-standing plan to cut 2 cents this year from Baltimore's highest-in-the-state property tax rate." Her administration blames the worsening economic situation, which hurts revenue collections.

According to the story:

The annual cut - which has been made each of the past three years - was supposed to knock 10 cents off the tax rate over a five-year period. The reductions have become a primary means to provide tax relief to city property owners.

Baltimore's property tax rate is by far the highest in Maryland - more than twice Baltimore County's - and a broad spectrum of city officials have acknowledged that the tax may be stifling growth and threatening homeowners on fixed incomes.

Opinions? Rants? Suggestions?

And yes, it was just a few hours ago that I got the time to look at my own paper's front page to see this story. Good grief, it's been a busy day.

A blast from the -- er -- present

The headline reads, "Stretched buyers fuel boom in housing." A local one from three years ago? Nope. Today's headline in the Canadian Globe and Mail.

The story notes:

Legions of first-timers are adding years of extra mortgage payments so they can buy a house, or putting little or no money into a down payment, a Re/Max survey revealed yesterday. Nearly two-thirds of buyers in major centres now favour extended amortization periods of up to 40 years, while putting little or no money down was prevalent in 38 per cent of regional markets surveyed across Canada.

The country's real estate industry has played down any similarities to the U.S. when it comes to subprime borrowers. But as new segments of the Canadian population enter the market, the findings raise questions about what's been driving soaring house prices in recent years.

April 22, 2008

Another day, another poll

Can't wait to hear what Americans -- or at least surveyed Americans -- think about the housing market? This is your lucky hour. A new AOL Real Estate/Zogby International poll says that 31 percent of people surveyed believe their home is worth more now than it was a year earlier and 56 percent "do not think their home will be worth less in five years."

Whether those figures suggest optimism or pessimism probably depends on your opinion of the market.

Other results from the poll, which was conducted with 6,678 adult participants in February and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.2 percentage points:

--Thirty percent "are working paycheck to paycheck to cover housing costs"

--Thirty percent know someone who has lost a home to foreclosure "or is being forced to sell" due to mortgage troubles

--Sixteen percent of people who aren't planning to sell or buy a home this year are intending to embark on a "major" home remodeling project

Click HERE to see the results online, though be warned that not everything in the press release AOL sent us appears to be viewable on the site.

Home sales, prices fall

The headline on our story about U.S. home sales in February asked a question: "A ray of light for housing?" Well -- the ray has disappeared for the time being. Perhaps it's resting up for later.

The increase in existing-home sales in February that the National Association of Realtors reported wasn't repeated in March, according to numbers released this morning. Sales fell 2 percent from the month before, the trade group said. (Condo sales rose while single-family home sales dropped.)

The median price fell 7.7 percent from a year earlier, the NAR said, though it noted (as it has for months) that it believes the drop is being exaggerated by sharply lower sales in expensive places. (Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, which has already reported local numbers for March, says median prices in the Baltimore metro area fell 3.2 percent from a year earlier.)

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, meanwhile, also released numbers this morning. It calculates that U.S. home prices fell 2.4 percent in February from a year earlier. OFHEO measures values differently -- wonk points to you if you knew that already. It looks at same-house transactions, and only those with loans purchased by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

April 21, 2008

How-to Monday: Mortgage fees

LoanApplicationStockxchng.jpg

Image courtesy of Stock.XCHNG

 

Looking to get a mortgage or refinance an existing one? If you have the credit score to make it work, you shouldn't have trouble finding people who really, really want your business. The trick is deciding who should get it.

Christopher Cruise, a mortgage trainer in Silver Spring and a board member of the National Association of Responsible Loan Officers, suggests that you look carefully at the fees the mortgage broker or lender plans to charge.

"A reasonable markup is 1, 1 ½ percent for the typical mortgage of $250 [thousand] ... and above," he says. "And don't let them pad it with admin fees, doc-prep fees, processing fees. We're very creative, you know."

Determining how much you're paying in fees -- upfront or rolled into the interest rate -- isn't easy. But it's worth your time to hunt, negotiate and compare deals from both lenders and brokers.

"Everything is negotiable," Cruise says. "Credit report, appraisal, what are called 'junk' or 'garbage' fees, origination fees."

Look at all the lines in the 800 "block" of the good-faith estimate to see how fees under various names add up, Cruise says. Also find the "yield spread premium," often listed as "YSP POC," to see how much that will cost you.

A yield spread premium refers to a common practice in which the lender pays the broker because you've agreed to a higher interest rate than you could otherwise get. You might choose this path to lower the amount of money you'll have to cough up at settlement. But you don't want to pay top dollar on both ends, Cruise says.

Brokers have to disclose this premium. But here's the rub: You might get nothing more specific than, say, "zero to 3 percent" until you near settlement.

If you're using a broker, Cruise recommends that you keep looking until you find one willing to tell you the premium figure early on and explain how it affects your rate. Better yet, get a guarantee in writing that all the fees he or she has control over won't change at settlement. (If you know what your FICO score is, you can go to www.myfico.com to see what interest rates lenders are offering people with similar credit scores, which will give you a point of comparison.)

Bottom line: Ask questions and don't take anything for granted. A fee might be pre-printed on the sheet and labeled "standard," but that doesn't mean you really should be paying it, he says.

And remember that comparing offers by total loan costs can be risky. That's because the figure includes the pro-rated taxes and insurance you'll have to pre-pay, says Holden Lewis at Bankrate.com.

"Depending on the date that you apply and the date of the closing that you set, those numbers can vary a whole lot and make that bottom line vary," he says.

Lewis also suggests that you ask people you trust -- family, friends, co-workers -- about their experiences in the mortgage market. You want referrals, of course, but anti-referrals are just as important.

"I hear stories about people who ... were told their fees were going to be X amount; they get into closing and it was twice that," Lewis said. "They're going to say, 'Hey, I was burned. Don't go to this broker, don't go to this loan officer.'"

Both Cruise and Lewis have useful advice about preparing for and dealing with settlement. But that will be for a later How-to.

April 20, 2008

Buying or selling a condo? Read this

Columnist Kenneth Harney notes that private mortgage insurers and mortgage financing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are making it harder to get a condo loan, particularly in parts of the country with "declining" housing markets.

Click HERE to read more. Perhaps the most depressing comment in the column comes from Bruce A. Calabrese, president of Equitable Mortgage Corp. in Columbus, Ohio:

"Everybody is really backing off condos" because of all the restrictions and changes. He said he owns two condo units -- one in Florida, another in Myrtle Beach, S.C. -- and even though he is in the mortgage industry, "I don't think I could refinance either of them right now if I tried."

April 19, 2008

Foreclosure help -- by mail

In my mailbox this week: A postcard from the state urging recipient to "Act NOW! Before It's Too Late!" if behind on mortgage payments.

It looks like a stepped-up response. The state has for a while offered foreclosure-help advice on a website, and a Baltimore nonprofit arranged for ads on radio stations, billboards and buses, but this is delivered directly.

The postcard recommends that if "you or someone you know is worried about losing their home to foreclosure or fraud ... Call The Maryland Hope Hotline At 1-877-462-7555 or go to www.mdhope.org for information on loan programs, counseling services and fraud intervention."

Anyone else get the postcard? (Or perhaps the state thinks my neighborhood is particularly at risk?)

April 18, 2008

Another way of looking at affordability

The Center for Neighborhood Technology has a suggestion, one that will resonate with anyone who's moved far from work for less expensive home prices: Consider transportation costs along with housing costs when you're deciding what affordable means.

An interactive tool you can find HERE lets you see how much of various metro areas is "affordable" in the traditional sense -- housing costs don't top 30 percent of local median income -- vs. a different definition (no more than 48 percent of income spent on housing and transportation combined).

Looking for Baltimore? Scroll down to "W" for Washington. The two metro areas are shown as one region ... which, of course, they are in most senses of the word. 

April 17, 2008

Report: Spending on remodeling will continue to fall

Contractors hoping that less home buying will mean more home improvement work this year are doomed to disappointment, predicts Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies. Its forecast calls for remodeling activity to fall 4.8 percent through the end of 2008.

From the center's press release:

“Spending on home improvements continues to be sluggish, as homeowners respond to falling home prices,” notes Nicolas P. Retsinas, director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “The fall-off in pending home sales suggests a long and slow recovery.”

“It looks unlikely that we will see any improvement in the remodeling market until 2009,” remarks Kermit Baker, director of the Remodeling Futures Program of the Joint Center. “Currently, the second half of this year is shaping up to be weaker than the first half.”

April 16, 2008

What homes have to do with cars

If you think the only connection between homes and cars is the garage, you're not considering the housing market's impact on lending.

Wachovia's economists write today that more people "are facing tougher financing terms for new and used vehicles" because the tighter lending standards for mortgages are finding their way to auto loans:

Auto lenders are competing for space on balance sheets at a time when nearly all lenders are becoming more cautious. As a result, lenders will make fewer and smaller loans, require higher credit scores and larger down payments. With greater constraint in auto financing and growing economic uncertainty, auto sales are weakening. ...

Manufacturers and dealers are responding to today’s tougher operating environment by lengthening the terms of loans and offering more aggressive lease terms. The problem with longer loan maturities is that many potential buyers are already in a position where they owe more on their car than they can sell it for.

Energy-saving advice

The Fuel Fund of Maryland has put out more tips as part of its energy-efficiency campaign. Noting that hot weather is just around the corner, the group suggests that you clean or replace your air conditioning filters -- "failing to keep filters maintained can drive monthly bills up and eventually lead to the unit’s death."

The Fuel Fund also recommends getting a tune-up for your air conditioning system.

Have any useful (or amusing) tips for keeping air-conditioning bills down? Chime in.

April 15, 2008

Worried homeowners

Housing and mortgage conditions are making Americans extremely nervous, or at least that's what a new Associated Press poll suggests.

The poll, conducted with AOL Money & Finance, found that 14 percent of homeowners with mortgages "worry that they might soon fail to make their monthly payments," nearly 30 percent are anxious that their homes will lose value within two years and 60 percent "said they definitely will not buy a home in the next two years."

The story notes: 

Eleven percent were certain or very likely to buy soon, down from 15 percent two years ago.

I'm sure there would be at least some variety in answers from state to state if the poll results could be broken down that way.

So -- in a completely unscientific way, of course -- feel free to put in your answers here. If you have a mortgage, do you think you might miss payments soon? Do you think your home will lose value in the next two years, maintain its current value or gain value? Do you think you might -- or do you plan to -- buy a home