Source: Sun photographer Barbara Haddock Taylor

To be forewarned is to be forearmed -- or to have something to look forward to, as the case may be. That's why people like to know what real estate developments are brewing in their community.

Once, there was little choice for the interested citizen but to visit the local planning department. Now -- well, that's still the main option, but more jurisdictions are offering some information online.

Anne Arundel County has a list of scheduled "pre-submission" meetings, for developers to meet with residents about upcoming plans, HERE. The county also keeps maps and charts of subdivision activity HERE, to give you a sense of what's going on where. The Office of Planning and Zoning is at 2664 Riva Road in Annapolis, 410-222-7450.

Baltimore City has a site HERE that lets you look up permits issued since 2002. The Department of Planning has neighborhood master plans and other planning publications HERE. Need more information? You can call a community planner -- their contacts are HERE -- or visit the department at 417 E. Fayette St., 410-396-7526.

Baltimore County keeps its community plans, zoning maps and similar information HERE. You can sign up for a quarterly e-newsletter about approved plans HERE (and find other e-newsletters, some related to development, HERE). The county is also in the process of adding detailed information about proposed "planned unit developments" HERE. The county Office of Planning is at 401 Bosley Ave. in Towson, 410-887-3211.

Carroll County keeps a list of approvals, submittals and recordations HERE. The information is more than six months behind, last I checked, but the county says it's working to catch up. The Department of Planning is at 225 N. Center St. in Westminster, 410-386-2145. Incentive to go in: The county has a mapping program on a computer set aside for public use that lets you see subdivisions in process and a lot of other useful things, like school district boundaries and zoning.

Harford County has updates to regulations HERE and to its zoning code HERE. It lists development meetings HERE with some details on the developments being discussed. The Department of Planning and Zoning is at 220 S. Main Street in Bel Air, 410-638-3103.

Howard County offers more information for people who want details on individual developments. Click HERE for a searchable tool that lets you see site development plans and subdivision plans near any address you choose (or HERE for a different tool). If it's been approved, you can see a PDF version of the plan documents. HERE you can find a list of pre-submission meetings. The Department of Planning and Zoning is at 3430 Court House Drive in Ellicott City, 410-313-2350.

Remember: If you live in a municipality with its own planning powers -- Carroll has eight, for instance -- you'll most likely want to turn to your city for information.

We're still a ways away from seeing all public documents on all development plans with the click of a home-computer mouse, but your local officials might hop to it if you ask. Arnold F. "Pat" Keller III, Baltimore County's planning director, encourages residents to email planning@baltimorecountymd.gov with ideas for Planning's website.

"If people feel like we could improve it or would like different types of information, email us," Keller says. "No joke."

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

For example, in the guidelines for what Fannie Mae calls its new "jumbo conforming" program, the company will, beginning April 1, purchase fixed-rate mortgages up to $729,750, but only with the following conditions:

• Minimum down payment of 10 percent.

• Minimum FICO credit score of 700 for any loan with less than a 20 percent down payment. "Nontraditional" credit histories as alternatives to FICOs are not permitted as in other programs.

• Minimum 40 percent down payment and 660 FICO for second homes and investor properties.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

John Fritze reports today that city homeowners in "special benefits districts" such as Charles Village and Mount Vernon may have overpaid:

At issue is whether a popular tax credit should be applied to additional levies collected by the Charles Village Community Benefits District and the Midtown Community Benefits District to offer extra garbage collection and private security guards.

For years, the city has applied the Homestead Tax Credit to property taxes that support city services, but not to the benefits districts' tax rate, which might have resulted in small overpayments by thousands of homeowners.

The city solicitor's office said in an opinion this week that any credit that applies to the city's regular property tax should also apply to the benefits districts' tax. But after questions from The Sun about whether that meant prior tax bills were calculated incorrectly, the city withdrew the opinion.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 2:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

The big drop in U.S. home buying last year came because everyone was pulling back -- primary-residence purchasers, vacation-home buyers and real estate investors. That's according to a survey released today by the National Association of Realtors that looks at sales of all homes, new and existing.

The trade group said the biggest decrease came in vacation-home sales, down 31 percent in 2007. Investment-home sales dropped 18 percent, while primary-home sales fell the least -- 10 percent.

Total sales in each category last year: 740,000 vacation homes; 1.35 million investment homes; and about 4.3 million primary-residence homes.

In all, vacation- and investment homes were 33 percent of sales, down from 36 percent in 2006, the NAR said.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 5:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
                    

Half the businesses in the nation are home-based, according to the Census Bureau.

It's an interesting twist on the old commuting question, though of course not all those business owners are only working from home. Plenty of full-time employees run small firms on the side.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 4:37 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Bankrate.com's weekly survey of large lenders, released today, found average rates for conforming 30-year fixed mortgages at 5.95 percent, while ARM rates were above 6 percent. (The 1-year adjustable loan had a rate of 6.25 percent.)

Here's what Bankrate.com says about it:

It is unusual to see fixed mortgage rates lower than the rates offered to borrowers taking adjustable rate mortgages. But that is exactly the situation we are currently in, with rates on adjustable mortgages having been pushed higher in recent weeks due to a secondary market for adjustable rate mortgage-backed securities that is in disarray and being plagued by more sellers than buyers. Adjustable rate mortgages have higher instances of delinquency than fixed rate loans, and investors are exacting a price for that by commanding higher returns. This means higher rates for borrowers. Lenders not dependent upon the secondary markets are in a position to offer better terms, underscoring the need for consumers to shop around.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 10:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

Asking prices for higher-end housing dropped slightly more, closer to 11 percent. But here's what surprised me: People selling homes at the cheaper end of the spectrum are asking almost 12 percent less than a year ago. One might assume they'd feel less downward pressure rather than more -- I continue to hear that properties affordable to the most buyers are generally the easiest to sell.

At the lower end, a 12 percent drop takes asking prices from almost $224,000 to about $197,400, according to HousingTracker.net.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 7:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
                    

From today's press release:

Objective, rigorous analysis of the San Francisco region finds no evidence that Inclusionary Zoning impacts either prices or production, while study of the suburban Boston area finds some evidence that Inclusionary Zoning programs resulted in small decreases in production and slight increases in prices.

... “Our analysis refutes the ‘sky-is-falling’ cries from IZ opponents; we find no evidence that IZ programs have reduced housing production in the San Francisco area, and find evidence of only slight effects on production in the Boston area,” says Vicki Been, Director of the Furman Center. “However, we found that IZ policies have produced only a modest number of affordable housing units, suggesting that IZ by itself is not a panacea for a community’s affordable housing challenges.”

The study was co-released by the Center for Housing Policy in Washington.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

From my story today:

The end of the housing downturn? No, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, but he thinks it is "the beginning of the end." He and many economists have been saying for months that the housing market won't right itself until prices drop significantly.

"Sellers are cutting prices, and that's now putting a floor under sales," said Zandi. "That's the first step in what will be a long housing bottom."

Unlike the national figures, Baltimore metro area sales aren't seasonally adjusted, which means there's no use comparing the normal upturn in February to sales in, say, December or November. But you can compare the January-February increase to previous January-February periods, and this year's was the biggest since Metropolitan Regional Information Systems first started tracking those months back in 2000.

Median prices in our metro area -- the city and five surrounding counties -- dropped 2.5 percent last month from a year earlier.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 10:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)
                    

Photo courtesy of Stock.XCHNG

What do you want to know about a neighborhood before you sign a sales contract or apartment lease? Lots of things, probably -- but safety and schools top the list if you're like most people.

You'll need to do your own research: The federal Fair Housing Act prevents real estate agents from giving you information about school quality or other factors that boil down to characterizing a neighborhood.

"Realtors refer anyone who is interested in what goes on in the schools to the Board of Education," said Debbie Hager, director of communications for the Maryland Association of Realtors. "The Realtor really needs to remain totally impartial."

The Internet makes it easier than ever to start your research, though it's not the end-all and be-all.

To learn more about reported crimes in your area:

Anne Arundel County lets you look up crime stats near you -- or near the address of your choosing -- HERE. You can also put in an address and get general information, such as trash pickup times.

The Baltimore City Police Department has an interactive map HERE.

The Baltimore County Police Department keeps statistics and an interactive map HERE.

The Carroll County Sheriff's Office suggests that people seeking information about neighborhood crime call the office's public information officer, 410-386-2759. Similarly, the Harford County Sheriff's Office suggests calling its crime analysis unit, 410-836-5402.

The Howard County Police Department spits out reports about crime near the address of your choosing, though be warned that the stats are from 2006. Click HERE.

To learn more about local public school test scores, go to the Maryland State Department of Education's Maryland Report Card site HERE. You can see scores for the Maryland School Assessment (MSA), the Alternate Maryland School Assessment (ALT-MSA), and the High School Assessments (HSA) -- they're summed up statewide, by county and by school. You can compare schools with other schools, and you can also look at the Adequate Yearly Progress reports.

But that's just the beginning. Crime stats and test scores won't necessarily tell you if you'll be comfortable living in the neighborhood and/or happy with the local schools. So visit -- and talk to neighbors and parents about what they think.

You can find other sources of information, too. The state's sex offender registry. The Sun's education blog, police blotter archives and homicide map. Another homicide map -- tracking a larger area -- on the blog burgersub.org. A collection of crime information on the Baltimore Crime blog.

Have other sites or offline sources of information you like? Please share.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
                    

In 1970, 36 percent of new homes were less than 1,200 square feet, the National Association of Home Builders reports. Today, 4 percent of new homes are that petite. One in 10 new houses was 2,400 square feet or more in 1970; 42 percent are that large now.

Perhaps homes would be more affordable to more people if they weren't so huge. Of course, a complicating factor is that big homes are sometimes the only option under local zoning rules in rural and semi-rural places, which is where a fair bit of homebuilding has been going on in the last generation.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 8:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

David Leonhardt with The New York Times wrote a piece this week on the topic:

I spent a good part of the last few days calling people on Wall Street and in the government to ask one question, “Can you try to explain this to me?” When they finished, I often had a highly sophisticated follow-up question: “Can you try again?”

He ends up with one of the clearest explanations I've seen yet. The problem wasn't simply risky loans turned into risky investments. It was risky loans turned into risky investments that were -- yes -- made even riskier:

Investors then goosed their returns through leverage, the oldest strategy around. They made $100 million bets with only $1 million of their own money and $99 million in debt. If the value of the investment rose to just $101 million, the investors would double their money. Home buyers did the same thing, by putting little money down on new houses, notes Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com. The Fed under Alan Greenspan helped make it all possible, sharply reducing interest rates, to prevent a double-dip recession after the technology bust of 2000, and then keeping them low for several years.

... The American home seemed like such a sure bet that a huge portion of the global financial system ended up owning a piece of it. 

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 12:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (6)
                    

Residents of neighborhoods with higher levels of poverty, lower education, and more female-headed families are less likely than others to exercise, according to the study.

It’s not simply that poorer people are less likely to exercise, researchers say. In fact, the study, which was done in Chicago, found that a person’s individual income wasn’t as important as the neighborhood he or she lived in for determining exercise levels.

Co-author Christopher Browning, an associate professor of sociology at Ohio State University, attributes it to residents not feeling "comfortable to go outside for activities.”

Other studies have blamed suburban-sprawl neighborhoods for making people fat because there's nowhere to walk.

Of course, there's always exercise tapes.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 12:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Growth slowed last year in Baltimore County, Carroll and Harford, the estimates suggest.

Census workers estimate a population decline of about 3,500 people in Baltimore City, which would be a setback from the slight gain in '06 if the figure stands. The city has routinely appealed the counts and ended up with higher numbers, and it anticipates challenging this time around, Kelly Brewington reports today.

Maryland's growth as a whole was slow, which the Baltimore Metropolitan Council's Dunbar Brooks attributes to the economy and housing prices, Brewington reports:

Even before the economy weakened, Maryland's high housing costs drove residents to neighboring states with more affordable housing, he said.

The number of people leaving both the region and the state is what struck me most about the census counts. In the Baltimore metro area, 8,600 more people moved out than moved in. The number of Marylanders moving out of state outnumbered people coming the other direction by about 18,500. In other words, the only true growth is coming from babies born to residents.

Look at the decade as a whole -- 2000 through 2007 -- and both the metro area and the state have more people coming in than out. That means the change has been fairly recent, and housing costs probably are playing a role.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 11:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Source: Baltimore Metropolitan Council

As you can see, the number of permitted units bounced around but didn't really rise during the boom years. Suburban caps on building meant there were only so many new homes allowed at any one time. (The numbers above include Baltimore and its five suburbs, Anne Arundel, Baltimore Co., Carroll, Harford and Howard.)

But permitted units fell faster here than they did nationwide, even though the country saw a big increase in building during the boom. U.S. permits dropped 36 percent from 2005 to 2007, according to the federal government.

So what gives? A key reason is that homebuilders aren't just competing with each other. They've got the area's big supply of existing and rehabbed homes to contend with, too, and they want to get their own inventory under control.

I'll have a story in tomorrow's paper that looks at the ripple effects of this drop in homebuilding.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 5:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Last year the trade group tallied attendance at more than 7,000 and exhibitors at more than 350.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 9:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

The last time the rate was that low? At the end of 2004 and beginning of 2005.

The Fed, which is being urged to cut by some market players and urged not to by others who fear the result is higher inflation, had this to say:

Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and the tightening of credit conditions and the deepening of the housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.

Inflation has been elevated, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 2:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Consumer advocates pleaded with banking regulators to take action in 2005. They worried deeply about interest-only mortgages, "option ARMs" and other complex loans.

They were concerned that banks were ignoring borrowers' ability to repay "stated income" and "liar" loans that didn't require documentation.

Don't worry, said Washington.

"We don't want to stifle financial innovation," Steve Fritts, associate director for risk management policy at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., told The New York Times.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 11:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
                    

Yes, this did take us a while to put together, and yes, I am feeling squintier than ever from checking all those numbers. A grateful thanks to Sun intern Megan Hartley for pitching in with the double-checking.

This information goes hand-in-hand with a story I wrote about foreclosure cases, which notes that many of the counties seeing the biggest increases are well-off and high-priced. Click on the link for the interactive tool and you'll see the story as well.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 9:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Image courtesy of Stock.XCHNG

The mortgage mess hanging over the country offers many useful (if painful) lessons. First on the list: Don't borrow more than you can really afford to pay back.

Closely related to that is Lesson #2: Don't blindly rely on industry professionals to tell you what that amount is. Get down and dirty with the math yourself.

Here's a look at the debt-to-income levels you'll need to qualify for a loan nowadays, and some thoughts about how to get beyond that to true affordability.

Lenders look at a measurement they call your debt-to-income ratio. In plainer English, that means they'll be comparing your monthly before-tax income to your proposed mortgage payment (principal, interest, insurance and taxes) PLUS any other installment or revolving debt (car loans, boat loans, student loans, personal loans, credit-card minimum payments, etc.). Thanks to Ryan W. James, senior mortgage banker with First Horizon Home Loans, for that plainer English definition.

James, who's based in Timonium, said lenders will in most cases allow a debt-to-income ratio of up to 50 percent. If you make $5,000 a month ($60,000 a year), your monthly debt can't top $2,500.

"If you had a $400 car payment and a $200 student loan and a $60 minimum payment on your credit cards, we know your maximum mortgage payment is only going to be about $1,840," James said.

(U.S. News & World Report has a debt-to-income calculator HERE, if you'd like to take one for a spin.)

In the go-go housing boom days, it wasn't too hard to push beyond that 50 percent limit, James said. Good credit? Sure, go ahead. But he says it's much tougher now.

Though credit availability has tightened a lot in the last year, with loan products disappearing everywhere you look and lenders requiring better credit scores, today's debt-to-income limits are still high by historical standards. The traditional rule of thumb was 36 percent, says Christopher Cruise, a mortgage trainer in Silver Spring and a board member of the National Association of Responsible Loan Officers.

Both Cruise and James recommend you think carefully about how much mortgage debt you'll be comfortable taking on.

James says he does a budget analysis with clients that gets beyond the ratios to the nitty gritty. What's your take-home pay after taxes, retirement plan contributions and the like? How much are you spending a month in addition to debt payments -- the cost of meals, entertainment, gas, utilities, etc.? How much do you want to be able to save once everything, including your mortgage, is paid up each month?

Cruise says that Baltimore-Washington housing prices, even with recent declines, remain high enough that buyers may feel forced to choose between the house they want and the lifestyle they're used to. His advice: Look in less-expensive neighborhoods you might not have considered, cut back on your non-mortgage spending or keep renting while you whip your finances into shape.

"Have some willpower, for God's sake," Cruise said. "Buying a home now and getting foreclosed on in a year or two is not ideal."

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (8)
                    

Well ... no. It's more complicated than that, and you need only look at what's happened in recent weeks for proof:

That's the weekly average for 30-year fixed-rate loans, according to Freddie Mac.

So why aren't mortgage rates playing nice? 

Usually, recession fears press rates down. That's what was going on at the beginning of the year. But after that, as the Associated Press notes, "bond markets have grown worried about rising inflation pressures that are coming as the economy slows." That's sent rates back upward.

So far, though, they're below the average for last year -- 6.34 percent. 

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, which oversees an area that includes both metros, has put together maps with LoanPerformance data that show the subprime and "Alt-A" mortgage situation in the wider region. Subprime loans were designed (if not always given) to people with poor credit or high debt, while so-called Alternative A loans were in the gray area between subprime and traditional products.

For a map showing the percentage of homeowners more than 90 days behind on their subprime mortgages, click HERE.

Thanks to the Fed for sharing.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 2:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
                    

how long the business has been operating (a fact you can check online with the agency that regulates businesses in your state); whether it has the proper insurance (ask to see a certificate); how personal goods are handled; what type of wrap is used; if climate-controlled trucks are used; if your items will be stored during a move, whether the storage facility will be climate-controlled; whether you can speak with clients who have used the service; whether employees are background-checked; and whether the individuals who will be moving your furniture are employees or independent contractors.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

The Mortgage Bankers Association and the Mortgage Asset Research Institute, which released the study today, say that Maryland's reported mortgage fraud as a share of loans originated last year is 15th worst in the country. That's the same ranking the state had in 2006.

By "fraud," the groups mean both the fudging that homebuyers did to qualify for a loan ("I make $150,000 a year -- yeah, that's the ticket") and the scams by people looking to steal from lenders and scram. Some of the latter are really complex, with straw buyers and falsified appraisals and the like. Click