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December 30, 2007

Harney: 2008 could be just what housing market needs

Real estate columnist Kenneth Harney thinks the housing market could strengthen in 2008 rather than worsen, as some economists have predicted. Here's a taste of what he says in today's column:
Even through the grimmest headlines of 2007, there were a number of positive underlying economic forces propping up real estate and keeping it from a true bust. If those forces continue, they should help cut the time needed for the correction cycle to bottom out and the historically inevitable recovery cycle to begin.

Take mortgage rates. Had the cost of money been significantly higher in 2006 and 2007, does anyone doubt that the delinquencies and foreclosures stemming from the toxic vintages of subprime loans would have been much worse? But the 30-year fixed rates that hovered in the low 6 percent range for much of the year -- even in the high 5s for a couple of weeks -- allowed many borrowers to refinance into alternatives such as FHA or conventional Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac loans. The recently announced national loan modification and rate-freeze effort should keep at least some -- no one knows how many -- struggling subprime homeowners out of foreclosure in the new year.

Steady, moderate national growth of new jobs, economic expansion and low inflation also helped the national housing market in 2007 and could do the same in 2008. By the way, despite all the scary statistics, sales of existing and new homes in 2007 totaled an estimated 6.5 million, which would make it the fifth largest sales year in American real estate history.

Another fact that often got lost amid the bad headlines in 2007 and offers reason for hope for a better 2008: Vast swaths of the country never experienced the excesses of the boom years, and have not endured the pains of the crunch under way in the most volatile markets.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 7:27 AM | | Comments (0)
        

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About Jamie Smith Hopkins
Jamie Smith Hopkins, a Baltimore Sun reporter since 1999, writes about the regional economy. Her reporting on the housing market has won national and local awards. Hopkins is a Columbia native and has lived in Maryland all her life, save for 10 months spent covering schools in Ames, Iowa.
She trained to become a wonk by spending large chunks of time as a geek and an insufferable know-it-all.
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