Its latest "mortgage risk monitor" report ranks our metro No. 71 out of 381 markets, with 1 being the highest risk. The Dallas area, by comparison, is ranked 318th and LA comes in at No. 2 (right behind Riverside, Calif.).

The company's ranking of other parts of Maryland include Bethesda-Gaithersburg-Frederick at No. 100, Cumberland in Western Maryland at 109, Hagerstown at 115 and Salisbury at 149. CoreLogic says it bases its risk forecast on "fraud propensity and collateral risk, house price dynamics, and the health of local market economies."

You can find the second-quarter report HERE.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 10:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
                    

Readers of The Sun, not to mention this blog, may remember that I had a story last Thursday about a study showing that sales of less expensive homes were actually rising year-over-year despite the steep falloff in sales overall.

Alas -- the study was wrong.

Delta Associates, a real estate research firm that prepared the report for multiple listing service Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, said today that it included condos in its calculation for the first three months of this year but excluded them in the first quarter 2007 calculation. That apples-to-oranges comparison made it look like cheaper homes were selling like hotcakes when in fact they too were seeing sales declines.

Delta says now that single-family home sales -- that is, not condos -- fell 26 percent in the $120,000 to $249,999 category. (Its original calculation was a sales increase of nearly 20 percent.)

Ouch.

So why did no one -- either at Delta, at Wonk Central or in the Realtor ranks I interviewed -- suspect there was an error at first? Because all anecdotal evidence has for months suggested that this price range is doing significantly better than more expensive homes. Over and over, agents have said there are more buyers interested in under-$250 homes.

And they're right, relatively speaking. Cheaper homes haven't seen as steep a sales dropoff as more expensive ones. Sales of homes priced at $250,000 and above declined 37 percent in the first quarter of this year vs. the first quarter of last year, according to Delta's new calculation. (That includes a dropoff of almost 50 percent in the $500,000-plus range.)

It's a useful reminder that data errors can crop up, even at reputable research firms. And it's made me even more paranoid about the accuracy of any analysis that I haven't done personally. (Which is not to say I'm not extremely paranoid about potential data foul-ups in my own analyses, because I am.)

We'll have a correction in tomorrow's Business section.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 6:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
                    

Image courtesy of Stock.XCHNG

Few things in everyday life are as intimidating and overwhelming as first-time home buying can be. There's so much to consider, and you don't know what you don't know.

So here's a rough to-do list -- the steps buyers typically go through from start to finish.

Continue reading "How-to Monday: The buying timeline" »

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
                    

The New York Times reports today:

The recommendations came in response to a severe shortage of moderate-income housing in Westchester. Demand is expected to reach 19,083 units by 2015, yet between 2000 and 2005 only 970 units had been built, according to Deborah DeLong, the county’s housing director.

Because the roads and utilities in existing office parks are already in place, the study asserts, further development of those properties would not be as costly for developers.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 6:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
                    

Fannie Mae's CEO says his best guess is 2010. Delta Associates and analyst John McClain of George Mason University, both speaking of our neck of the woods, say 2009 and the second half of 2008, respectively. Cyril Moulle-Berteaux, managing partner of hedge fund firm Traxis Partners LP, opines in a Wall Street Journal piece that the housing market already hit bottom last month.

But why let them have all the fun? You've been paying attention -- obviously, as you're here -- and you have opinions.

So: What's your forecast, either for the Baltimore area or the nation as a whole? Feel free to leave a detailed comment or just a date.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 10:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)
                    

Click HERE to see the data, released today by Metropolitan Regional Information Systems.

The sales drop ranged from 27 percent in Baltimore County to 42 percent in Carroll, which has really been taking a pummeling. Prices fell the most in Carroll, down 7.6 percent on average. Every other jurisdiction in the area saw tiny-to-modest price drops except Baltimore, where average prices rose 3.7 percent. (But the city's median price fell, which just goes to show that it depends on what you're measuring.)

The number of unsold homes is again on the rise. That's probably to be expected, because a number of agents mentioned in the winter months that they had clients planning to put their properties on the market in the spring.

Thoughts about the market? As always, chime in. 

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 9:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

Now comes the latest salvo in the political wrangling over what the government should and shouldn't do about the housing slump, credit crunch and foreclosure problem: The House yesterday passed a measure to have the FHA insure billions in refinanced mortgages.

The Los Angeles Times, which notes that President Bush has "threatened a veto," reports in today's story:

At the center of the legislation is a measure that would allow the Federal Housing Administration to insure up to $300 billion in refinanced mortgages if lenders agree to write down the loan principal below the home's current appraised value. The plan would help an estimated 500,000 homeowners avoid foreclosure.

The measure would cost about $2.7 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Another provision, with particular relevance to states with high home costs, would permanently raise to $729,750 the limit for mortgages that government-sponsored holders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy.

I know some of you have strong opinions about government housing efforts thus far. For your reading pleasure, click HERE to see a list of recent federal actions and proposals.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 9:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

So help me out, kind readers: Tell me what topics you're most interested in. What would you like to see? (Click HERE for all the previous How-to posts, if you'd prefer to check there first.) 

How-to Monday isn't the time for exhaustive analyses or big investigations, of course. It has to be a how-to, for one, and it can't be too complicated or it'll never fit in the small space they give me when it gets printed in The Sun the following Friday. But that doesn't mean you can't suggest news stories for my (frightening long) queue.

So chime in, either in the comments or by email. What would you like to know? What do you think others should know?

(Image courtesy of Stock.XCHNG)

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 12:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
                    

Nearly 20 percent more properties priced from $120,000 to $249,999 sold in the first three months of the year than in the same period in 2007, according to a report released yesterday by Metropolitan Regional Information Systems. That comes as sales in all pricier categories, particularly $500,000 and over, continued to fall sharply.

The report, prepared for the multiple listing service by real estate research firm Delta Associates, is a potent reminder that price matters. Homes affordable to first-time buyers are getting contracts faster because those buyers don't have property of their own to sell first. The $120,000 to $249,999 category, which accounted for one-fifth of sales in the early part of last year, swelled to more than a third of the market in the first quarter.

Other interesting statistics from the MRIS/Delta report that I couldn't fit in the story:

--Vacancy among Baltimore metro area Class A apartments is rising (6.1 percent in the first quarter, up from 4.4 percent a year earlier). Rental prices are essentially flat, at $1,296.

--Vacancy is also rising in the Baltimore metro area office market -- it's 12 percent, up from 10.9 percent a year ago. While homebuilders have been assiduously cutting back to get inventory under control, office development is still growing. Delta reports that there are 4 million square feet under construction, compared with 2.5 million square feet a year ago.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 9:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
                    

Lorraine Mirabella reports today that "state officials and developers said yesterday that they hoped to start construction of a new State Center by 2010."

A master plan totaling 6 million square feet, to be presented tomorrow to a city design panel, includes 2 million square feet of office space, 1,200 market-rate and affordable residences and about 250,000 square feet of restaurants, shops and, possibly, a supermarket.

The dozen state agencies that currently occupy four state-owned buildings would become a key anchor, filling about three-quarters of the office space.

Posted by Jamie Smith Hopkins at 11:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)