Now we're in uncharted unemployment territory
The June employment report is a shock. Private payroll surveys earlier this week suggested that the economy added as many as 150,000 jobs, on net, last month. But today's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a gain of only 18,000 jobs, and the May gain got downgraded from 54,000 to 25,000. (Here is the Reuters report.) It'll add to pressure on Obama to do "something" and will increase accusations from Republicans that political uncertainty is keeping business from hiring. (Which may be true, although the biggest uncertainty -- over the debt ceiling -- is made in Republicanland.)
Here is some perspective. The government started measuring unemployment after World War II. Until recently the longest stretch since then of joblessness over 8 percent was two years and two months in the early 1980s. Now we've breached that. June's unemployment rate of 9.2 percent makes it two years and four months that joblessness has been over 8 percent. And there are no signs of the streak ending anytime soon. In fact the unemployment trends -- it was as low as 8.8 percent in March -- are heading the wrong way.
UPDATE: WBAL's Bill Vanko and I talk about the jobs report.







Comments
Well, I hate to say it - but Obama is toast. He had every opportunity to kill the Bush tax cuts, end our overseas wars, and reinvest that money in the economy. But he spent his time pandering to Republicans and making kissy-face with Wall Street. If the Republicans stay smart and nominate someone who is not completely nauseating (i.e. anyone but Bachmann) Obama will be a one term wonder.
Posted by: Ron | July 8, 2011 9:26 AM
I thought he already did "something" called the TARP/stimulus package? Looks like Obama drove the car further into the ditch to me.
Posted by: Ballz Mahoney | July 8, 2011 9:37 AM
America’s close to fatal condition is a direct reflection of an incompetent president whose only idea for saving America is to "tax the rich".
President Obama, the Chicago neighborhood organizer and former hustler for the disgraced criminal enterprise known as ACORN, has no clue how to save this country.
Unless it involves making more regulations to restrict oil exploration and adding government jobs. The same government jobs that result in higher taxes and less productivity for all Americans.
"Republican land" happens to represent common sense and the majority of Americans.
It's time the liberals and government sector recognize the inevitable and do their part to save this country from a party whose "stimulus" resulted in 2 million FEWER JOBS.
America may endure, barely, as White House flunkies enjoy raises twice the national average, government limousine use increases 75%, and the First Golfer , fresh from yet another vacation, plays his 80th+ round at a local country club.
Posted by: CLS88 | July 8, 2011 9:44 AM
It seems neither party has any concrete ideas on how to increase employment. Just cutting spending won't do it. Because the private sector cannot absorb the number of people that would be laid off in the public sector. That means unemployment will go up and taxes on businesses will go up to cover the rise in UI benefits being paid out. You saw what happened a couple of years ago when Maryland had to triple the UI contribution made by employers to keep the UI fund from going bankrupt. One idea would be to cut the H1-b visa program that brings in foreign workers. Give those jobs to Americans. Another idea would be to limit the amount of foreign imports and force businesses to buy American products. Do not allow American companies to outsource work overseas.
Posted by: Bud | July 8, 2011 10:04 AM
What a cheap shot jay. The debt ceiling problem is not "made in Republicanland". The debt ceiling problem was created by every politician who held office over past several decades, and the American people who continue to demand handouts. We all created this, and its only going to be solved if we're all in and the divisiveness ends.
The Republicans are doing the right thing by taking a stand. You are blind to reality if you think they would let the US default.
Posted by: Ben | July 8, 2011 10:08 AM
"The June employment report is a shock."
"We misread the economy."
"This is Recovery Summer(2010)"
"This is Recovery Summer(2011)"
"The hew numbers were unexpected."
Blah blah blah. We have had it withthe failed policies and cannot affore even another 2 years of this totally failed regime much less 4 more. We will be at par with Nicaragua soon.
Posted by: Anonymous | July 8, 2011 10:09 AM
What's so shocking about these numbers after two and a half years of failed redisribution policies and overregulation on business? Stevie Wonder saw this one coming, Jay........
Posted by: King Libtard | July 8, 2011 10:17 AM
America’s near fatal condition is a direct reflection of an incompetent president whose only idea for saving America is to "tax the rich".
President Obama, the Chicago "neighborhood organizer" and former hustler for the disgraced criminal enterprise known as ACORN, has no clue how to save this country.
Unless saving the country involves more regulations to restrict oil exploration and adding government jobs. The same government jobs that result in higher taxes and less productivity for all Americans.
"Republican land" happens to represent common sense and the view of the majority of Americans.
“Democratland” produces such catastrophes known as Baltimore City.
It's time the liberals and government sector recognize the inevitable and do their part to save this country from a party whose "stimulus" resulted in 2 million fewer jobs...and counting.
We will endure as White House flunkies enjoy raises twice the national average, government limousine use increases 75%, and the First Golfer , fresh from yet another vacation, plays his 80th+ round at a local country club.
Posted by: Anonymous | July 8, 2011 10:37 AM
313 million people reside in the US,acording to our latest census.Many jobs have been shipped overseas. Immigrants(legal and illegal) continue to work here, but send their money back to their native lands. Politicians wave their gang colors with pride and ignorance.The Dow is reaching 13000.Yet we spend millions on a Royal wedding and life stealing foods. We have not been unified as a countrry. since WWII. Nine percent unemployment seems like a miracle.
Posted by: Edgar Williams | July 8, 2011 10:37 AM
America’s near fatal condition is a direct reflection of an incompetent president whose only idea for saving America is to "tax the rich".
President Obama, the Chicago "neighborhood organizer" and former hustler for the disgraced criminal enterprise known as ACORN, has no clue how to save this country.
Unless saving the country involves more regulations to restrict oil exploration and adding government jobs. The same government jobs that result in higher taxes and less productivity for all Americans.
"Republican land" happens to represent common sense and the view of the majority of Americans.
“Democratland” produces such catastrophes known as Baltimore City.
It's time the liberals and government sector recognize the inevitable and do their part to save this country from a party whose "stimulus" resulted in 2 million fewer jobs...and counting.
We will endure as White House flunkies enjoy raises twice the national average, government limousine use increases 75%, and the First Golfer , fresh from yet another vacation, plays his 80th+ round at a local country club.
Posted by: CLS | July 8, 2011 10:39 AM
Hope and Change!
Posted by: Barry O'Malley | July 8, 2011 10:49 AM
" ...the biggest uncertainty -- over the debt ceiling -- is made in Republicanland."
___________________
Yeah, the debt limit debate is the cause of 9.2% unemployment last month. And the moon is made of green cheese.
Posted by: Anonymous | July 8, 2011 10:52 AM
I don't understand why every month it is a SHOCK! Things are not getting better until the government does something to increase the confidence of it citizens and corporations. The highest corporate tax in the world doesn't help or the fact that there are too many regulations.
Posted by: Neil B | July 8, 2011 11:15 AM
Looking at the posts, it seems the one time supporters of Obama and gang are "tired of defending you Mr President"!
Obama once said "I would rather be a good one term President than a bad 2 term President."
Well, he forgot the third option, being a BAD FAILED 1 term President.
Posted by: Anonymous | July 8, 2011 11:54 AM
Actually, the biggest uncertainties are beaurocratic - banking regulations, health care mandates, EPA mandates, NLRD mandates, etc.
And the debt ceiling issue is one of Obama's own making - he got the straight up-or-down vote he asked for and lost, and refuses to make any real concessions (unenforceable budget cuts on a 12-year timeline are not real, and tax-the-rich plans don't solve the problem - but DO further hurt the jobs picture).
Posted by: Jon Do | July 8, 2011 12:00 PM
Confidence game. They've officially lost the game - it matters not what equity markets do or don't do for some time (real markets reflective of economic activity tell the tale; equity markets are always late to reality).
There's nothing sinister, or new, about it - in generic or historical terms. If consumers and businesses are not confident, they will not spend and hire.
There are new, innovative and sinister aspects to this management (Bernanke, Paulson/Geithner, Friedman & Dudley), however, in the form of TARP, TALF & QE (all highly destructive and even criminal [TARP] programs, designed to purely enrich/bailout Wall Street, which has nepotistic ties with the Federal Reserve (and many in government, including Pelosi and Paulson).
But the idea is simple. If consumers and businesses are not confident, they will not spend and hire.
If consumers don't spend and hire, unemployment can't get better, and ultimately, starts to increase.
If unemployment doesn't get better, or ultimately, starts to increase, consumers spend less and businesses hire fewer people, then freeze hiring, then lay people off.
If consumers spend less and businesses hire fewer people, then freeze hiring, then lay people off...
You get the idea.
Print more fiat you say? They have, it's created outrageous real inflation, and has simply destroyed discretionary purchases (and quite a bit of non-discretionary purchases, hence the need for more and larger government transfer payement assistance; hello SNAP).
This is the real 'virtuous circle' that Bernanke has created.
Bernanke is an absolute failure of a man and an economist and central banker because he tried to fight a structural disintegration of the economy, cause by massive government, business and household debt/leverage (don't believe CNBS - U.S. businesses alone - so "flush" with cash - have a record 11 trillion of debt) and structural changes to the employment, consumption and production patterns ushered in by incredible gaps in efficiencies between new global trading partners (which Wall Street capitalized on by engaging in incredible risk taking, banking massive profits, with the 'too big to fail' designees getting taxpayer bailouts), by using monetary policy (which has flamed inflation and thrown water on any potential embers of structural - employment, organic demand, unsubsidized demand - improvement.
This isn't 1933. Bernanke is not brilliant or wise. Bernanke has taken from taxpayers (watch and see how this transfer of the Fed's balance sheet to taxpayers plays out) trillions to bail out the least useful and I'd argue most destructive segment of the capitalistic base (the money shifters), and with time, the taxpayers, consumers and producers of real wealth (businesses that create things of real value and don't simply shift money from one pocket to another account) will suffer a death of a thousand blows.
The window to truly help the U.S. and global economy has closed. Bernanke & Paulson will go down as not only failures, but criminal accomplices that helped usher in a new economic depression.
The middle class revolution in the United States will happen. It won't be bloody or violent, but it will be effective in it's "not buying anything not needed or that which I'm not subsidized heavily to buy" simplicity.
The CONFIDENCE game of having government mouthpieces and the proxy media tell the consumer and taxpayer that all is well and green shoots are blossoming is for naught. Even the sheeple understand that the system is broken and that they're being lied to, even if they don't understand the intricate details of the hows and whys - most undeniably, there's less money in their pockets and less purchasing power to go with the less fiat, so they feel it.
When CONFIDENCE is lost, commerce slows, and as commerce and interchange is the liquidity and oil of the economic engine, things seize up.
Posted by: Tom | July 8, 2011 12:43 PM
All these shills for their corporate masters and the rich folks that head those corporations really amaze me.
Why not tax the rich more? Do you really think you're going to move from your job at morons R us into the top tax bracket? Top marginal tax rates are lower than they've been in a long, long time. Why not increase that marginal rate for folks making over $250,000 or $500,000? Lowering their taxes didn't seem to help the economy from 2001 to 2008. Confidence is nothing more that something being put out there as a distraction to the real problem, the lack of jobs.
Create more jobs = more people paying taxes which makes the deficit shrink. Jobs should be the #1 priority.
Posted by: Duh | July 8, 2011 1:05 PM
It is quite funny reading Duh's comment.
They chastise the rich and corporations and then demand they produce more jobs!
Have you Duh ever worked for a poor person?
Do you know ANYONE in your family or any friends who work for any of those big ol bad corporations? Do they make a good living? Raised a family?
Posted by: Anonymous | July 8, 2011 1:19 PM
"Lowering their taxes didn't seem to help the economy from 2001 to 2008. " posted by Duh.
2007, after the Bush tax cuts, the Federal government took in RECORD revenue!
Posted by: Anonymous | July 8, 2011 1:21 PM
Please Jay. The debt ceiling uncertainty was made in Republicanland? Bush did start the fire smoldering - I will grant you that, but then Owe-bama saw fit to throw gasoline on the embers. Get your facts straight. Look at the growth in nat'l debt under Obama. The employment rate and economy will improve when the government GETS OUT OF THE WAY, removes uncertainty and stops playing winners and losers with industries and companies. Block drilling in the Gulf and Boeing expansion in SC, but give GM and Chrysler a bailout....the impact and uncertainty created by Obama-care -- how about allowing the economy to grow so people have jobs with health benefits?? Now there's an idea. Or maybe the president should build a factory manufacturing the his favorite snack candy Entitle-mints.
Hi Notorious: I'm not talking about the debt level. That's a bipartisan product, as you note. I'm talking about uncertainty over raising the debt ceiling and avoiding a catastrophic default. The Republicans are basically refusing to negotiate. Some of them are even suggesting that default wouldn't be so bad. This is freaking out even conservative commentators. (See Megan McArdle, David Brooks.) JH
Posted by: Notoriouspaz | July 8, 2011 1:35 PM
Entitle-mints
The word play of the week!
Soon we will read and hear how this is all the Republicans faults for not spending all their millions.
Posted by: Anonymous | July 8, 2011 1:52 PM
Despite the endless din from the clueless economist brigade attempting to couch the impact of the Birth Death adjustment on actual non farm payroll numbers, there is a workaround which confirms that of the 1 million "job gains" in the past year, well over 50% of these have come from the statistical fudge factor known as the Birth Death Adjustment. We wonder when anyone in the administration will mention that of the 1 million jobs "created" in the past year, 606,000 have been purely the product of overzealous excel models.
Posted by: Tom | July 8, 2011 2:54 PM
From the Dept of You Just Can't Make This Up:
H. R. 2411
To provide for an employee election on Form W-4 to have amounts deducted and withheld from wages to be used to reduce the public debt.
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
July 6, 2011
Mr. CRAWFORD (for himself, Mr. TIBERI, Mr. FINCHER, Mr. LANDRY, Mr. DENHAM, Mr. DOLD, Mr. FLORES, Mr. GRIFFIN of Arkansas, Mr. AUSTIN SCOTT of Georgia, Mr. HUIZENGA of Michigan, Mr. PALAZZO, and Mr. GUINTA) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Ways and Means
***What's that line from American Beauty..."My job is to mask my contempt for the @##holes in charge...
Posted by: Tom | July 8, 2011 3:15 PM
I called that we'd break this record back in July of last year, but the record I was working with was 27 months, so still 3 to dip and prove me wrong.
It's all about the maximum output and equality of perfect competition, vs. the choked output and exacerbated income inequality of monopolistic competition. At the state, local, and federal level, big business conspires with big government to craft tax, regulator and monetary policy that shift markets away from perfect competition, and towards monopolistic competition.
Fill in the details of the framework of that general thesis, and you will fully understand why we are in the land of record unemployment.
Posted by: Josh Dowlut | July 8, 2011 5:14 PM
Refusing to negotiate, my a**! Your liberal friends in Washington refuse to negotiate over entitlement reform (the operative word, Jay-Jay, is "REFORM"), which is what is slowly bankrupting this country, and continue to play games with the revenue base.
Posted by: trebort49 | July 8, 2011 6:19 PM
Two wars plus tax cuts - the only reason why this is Obama's fault is that he didn't pull out the troops like he said that he would do.
Posted by: Ed | July 8, 2011 6:54 PM
Obama will go down with a rep the likes of Hoover and Coolidge, Pierce and Buchanan- a do-nothing president that failed to resolve a great crisis.
Posted by: hotdggt | July 8, 2011 8:10 PM
Problems come from Republicanland ?????. I beg to differ. It comes from years of LIBERAL abuses and giveaways of the american tax dollars. And Why ?, To keep them inpower thru monetary Slavery to them. The big spending has taken America to the brink of destruction. Not republican policies, but LIBERAL Transfers of wealth.
Posted by: Anonymous | July 8, 2011 8:24 PM
There is nothing Obama can do now to restore confidence. He has lied so many times. He has attacked business, and demonized everyone who makes a profit. Obama used up his quota of trust long ago.
Until we get a new President we will be stuck sliding backwards.
Our only hope now is Romney. And that is a heck of a long way off.
Posted by: Shauna | July 9, 2011 4:45 AM
The economy is not a republican or democratic problem, its an American one.
We need to expand our job base by expanding the opportunities for the labor force. We need to bolster the manufacturing segment of the market. Eliminate overburdening environmental regulations, allowing more oil and gas development, and stop subsidizing people who don't work.
Posted by: bobs | July 9, 2011 9:19 AM
Certain people just don't know how to get things done , just look at the major cities in this country , they are run by an inept segment of society,,,,,,,,,,,there must be change for improvement........
Posted by: spy | July 9, 2011 10:20 AM
New teleprompters will help...........
Posted by: Jim from Dundalk | July 9, 2011 10:23 AM
I love it. Even in these comment sections it us vs them. That folks is the real problem with Gov't. Forget the President, he's nothing more than a figure head. Just window dressing.
The real problem comes from having political parties, which fosters the us vs them mentality. We need political reform in this country in the worst way.
Abolish all parties, make everyone an independent and then hold them accountable.
We need to scale Gov't down to its bare essentials and have a flat Federal Tax (Say 10%). The states should be the service provider for the people who reside within their borders and their tax should be proportional to the services they provide.
Have all campaigns funded by the taxpayers (Do you realize they are going to spend over $2 BILLION dollars on the next Presidential election. Limit the campaign spending to $5 Million.
Everyone elgible gets to debate. If you don't your out. You should have to lay your agenda with real solutions, out in advance.
You would also have to name your cabinet in advance. To me those position are more important that the President and the people get no say in it.
Eliminate Corporate taxes altogether!! Create new incentives that would have business fund education in this country, through college and or trade schools. It's not hard to do.
Don't you think business would love to invest and train their next generation of workers so the day they graduate they are already prepared to assume the job they've train for.
There so much more that can be done but not under the current environment we live in, with todays mentality. It's time for real change in this couuntry, not just the next round of rhetoric we get every four years.
Posted by: TGC3RD | July 9, 2011 10:46 AM
Jay: Imagine what the unemployment rate would be if we didn't have declining work force participation. If you add back discouraged workers, 11% or 12% is a realistic number.
Posted by: John | July 9, 2011 10:55 AM
Maybe somebody could explain to me how a business bases its hiring decisions on "political uncertainty".
The problem is that Republicans have chosen to demonize the kind of actions that governments take to mitigate unemployment and spur economic activity. Why? Because such activities were most recently the actions of the Democrats and they need to differentiate themselves. Political marketing. Never mind that just a few years back "stimulus" was a Republican policy, too.
So Republicans are in an amusing situation where they have to jump and shout about how bad unemployment is, while also decrying the actions that help. This requires the creation of an imaginative but silly myth that the cure for unemployment is putting Republicans in office who will promise to do nothing about unemployment. You see, apparently it's Democrats in office that cause businesses to not hire.
Posted by: harry | July 9, 2011 11:38 PM
It's a good thing the enlightened people of the republic elected a Congress that ran for office on a program of creating jobs.
Posted by: Cheap Jim | July 10, 2011 11:06 AM
RE: President Obama, the Chicago neighborhood organizer and former hustler for the disgraced criminal enterprise known as ACORN, has no clue how to save this country. Posted by: CLS88 | July 8, 2011 9:44 AM
His mission is to DESTROY this country. He proves only how trusting human beings raised in a generally free society can, indeed, fail to see -- let alone understand -- what is in front of them in plain sight.
Posted by: Anonymous | July 10, 2011 5:04 PM
Boner drinks like a fish , smokes like a train and cries like a babyl
Posted by: George from Ohio | July 10, 2011 9:57 PM
I cant believe a liberal motherfucker, like yourself, gets paid to write this pathetic drivel. Go fuck yourself, asshole.
Posted by: Joe | July 10, 2011 11:34 PM
The problem with the unemployment rate is basic economics. The Fed lowered the price of money in 2003 by pushing the fed funds rate to 3% and then raised it sharply. As a result workers flooded into home construction, real estate, and mortgage banking and then were superfluous. They can't be retrained overnight!
All of this just reemphasizes what should be learned in Econ 101: controlling prices seriously distorts resource allocation.
The fact that fat cat bankers were bailed out on the back of the middle class hasn't helped the situation.
Posted by: DIY Investor | July 11, 2011 6:54 AM
I doubt your misinformed, so you must be spinning. You do not get to 9%+unemployment through uncertainty. you get to it by exporting jobs and having a weak economy.
Posted by: MiikeB | July 11, 2011 7:40 AM