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May 18, 2011

Who's dumber about econ? Liberals or conservatives?

Neither is less informed than the other, perhaps. Or each is about equally misinformed. A new paper by Daniel Klein and Zeljka Buturovic suggests that liberals answer economics questions incorrectly when the questions seem to confirm their biases. And conservatives answer questions incorrectly when they seem to confirm conservative biases.

The paper doesn't show that people of either political persuasion are less informed than the other about economics. Rather, it's a study on the insidious effects of confirmation bias and how we're constsantly on the lookout for evidence that supports what we already "know."

Here's one. Restrictions on housing development make make housing less affordable. Agree or disagree? The correct answer is, yes, they do. 51 percent of people identifying themselves as progressive got it wrong, and 45 percent of the liberals got it wrong. Much lower percentages of conservatives and libertarians muffed it. Of course restricting housing makes it more expensive because it crimps the supply, but liberals may not want to admit that because they often oppose development.

Here's another. When two people complete a voluntary transaction, they both necessarily come away better off. Agree or disagree? The correct answer is no, they aren't necessarily better off. A terrific example is the housing meltdown, in which many economic agents participated voluntarily, to their great regret and harm.

But large majorities of conservatives and libertarians got that one wrong, forgetting about information problems that cause people to willlingly engage in stupid transactions. The conservative bias toward liberty and free contracts seems to have made them forget about the downside. Here are the "conservative-tilted" questions that conservatives tended to get wrong. The liberal questions are after the jump. conservativeecon.gif

liberalecon.gif
Posted by Jay Hancock at 5:08 AM | | Comments (10)
        

Comments

Fascinating study. To me however the questions aren't worded real well.Maybe the study confirms the authors' bias?
Example: If builders are required to put 10% of their new building into rent controlled apartments that would be considered a restriction by many that would provide more low cost housing.
Other example: trade is known as the one way society can be made better off without additional resource usage. If you and I trade you definitely feel you are better off as well as I do. Throwing in the additional stipulation of asymmetric information is a bit misleading.

Let's see, the actual title of the study is "Economic Enlightenment Revisited: New Results Again Find Little Relationship Between Education and Economic Enlightenment but Vitiate Prior Evidence of the Left Being Worse".................

Now, I must confess, even if this study confirms my own biases, I still would want to hear what the study considers the "correct" answers and why. The problem with economics is that, in spite of it being labeled a "science," it harbors massive "gray areas" and opportunity for wiggle room and manipulation. Take the question of a dollar "meaning" more to a poor person than a rich one--if I give a person with ten dollars another dollar, I've increased their net worth 10%, as opposed to giving it to the person with a thousand dollars (0.1%); however, that dollar doesn't buy the poor person more food or goods than the dollar I gave to the person with $1,000. Ergo, you can answer that question "yes" or "no" and still be right, but the answer depends on what the economists mean. Similarly, many answers depend on a "pure" economic state, not the occasionally manipulated and distorted market we actually have.

"The correct answer is, yes, they do. 51 percent of people identifying themselves as progressive got it wrong, and 45 percent of the liberals got it wrong." Umm, what exactly does this sentence mean? So the study differentiated between "progressives" and "liberals? Worthless.

At least one of the answers you mention is wrong.

The 'conservative' tilted Questions 9-17 are not Yes or No answers and are poorly worded.

In the second chart, where most of the questions are pretty cut and dry, those on the Left clearly get them wrong most.

Looks like an interesting study. I'll have to check into it further.

Thanks for looking out, Jay!

This is an interesting study - but I don't think it shows anything about the economic knowledge of anyone. Every question is so vague it should be answered with "it depends".

What the study is really testing is bias in interpreting the question - nothing about knowledge of the respondent.

The major conclusion for the reader should be that economists haven't got a clue how to prepare survey questions.

# 5: Trade CAN make everyone better off. Emphasis on the word "can."

For those who haven't seen it, a stand up comedian's take on Mankiw's 10 principles: http://youtu.be/VVp8UGjECt4

True that econ is a soft/behavioral science, but its main limits, or more specifically corruptions, stem from the fact that it is a key tool to rule and fool, far more so than any of the traditional "hard" sciences.

The paper is published on "Econ Journal Watch." According to Wikipedia, Econ Journal Watch is "a project principally sponsored by the American Institute for Economic Research but legally existing within the Atlas Economic Research Foundation"--suggesting a connection to the latter group, which sourcewatch.org calls "the Johnny Appleseed of conservative think tanks." The Wikipedia link is here: http://bit.ly/jZOgN4

Just so that it's clear, this means that the paper was not published in a peer-reviewed publication. It followed an earlier study by the same authors that concluded that liberals were less knowledgeable about economics.

Of course, the questions in the study do not have "correct" or "incorrect" answers, only "enlightened" and "unenlightened" answers. To say the least, is a rather bizarre term to use in such a study.

I love that video, Josh. Very funny and surprisingly (sadly) accurate.

I think BaltoBob draws the best conclusion of the study:

"What the study is really testing is bias in interpreting the question - nothing about knowledge of the respondent."

Sadly, however, the general public seems to mistake their own bias for actual knowledge. This is why I hate the phrase "Everyone is entitled to their opinion."

Yeah, as long as most people admit that it's a useless and probably detrimental entitlement....

If I have not studied something, then my opinion is NOT as valid as the opinion of someone who has. Of course, it may shake out that they were mistaken and I was right by pure chance, but these situations are rare and to be investigated properly.

Stupid is as stupid does has been exemplified by both Bush and Obama. Add Reagan, Bush Sr. and Carter to that group as well. The only smart president in my voting lifetime IMO was Clinton and the sexually repressives lambasted him for his personal picadilloes.

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Tuesdays and Sundays.
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