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February 3, 2011

Will Chinese inflation push factory jobs back to U.S.?

Economist Michael Mandel seems guardedly optimistic. He urges agencies such as Maryland's Department of Business and Economic Development to start thinking about how to "recapture" factory jobs lost to China, now that China isn't as cheap as it once was. The idea is that some industries could be competitive making stuff in America now that China prices are going up sharply.

It’s time for state and local economic development agencies to start honing their import recapture strategies. By ‘import recapture strategy’, I mean the judicious use of loans and other aid to help rebuild and restart manufacturing production and jobs that were lost to foreign factories.*

Yes, I know that sounds weird after all the manufacturing jobs that have been lost. Anecdotally, the price differential between China and the U.S. was on the order of 35%. Given the price jumps in the pipeline, all of a sudden the cost of U.S. production might be in spitting distance for some industries.That’s especially true since domestic manufacturers have the advantage of being close and flexible.

I'm skeptical. China is not the last redoubt of cheap manufacturing. Producers will move to Vietnam, Cambodia or Indonesia. In a world where more than a billion people still live on $2 a day or less, it seems like there are plenty of other places to seek low-cost inputs (including but perhaps not confined to labor).

Posted by Jay Hancock at 6:00 AM | | Comments (1)
Categories: China
        

Comments

I agree with you. We are already seeing factories moving to even cheaper places in Asia, away from China.

Also sprach Analyst

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Tuesdays and Sundays.
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