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January 7, 2011

The good news: Dec. job count may be upgraded

This morning's jobs report is another in a string of disappointing monthly dispatches. Markets had hoped for a report of 200,000 or more payroll jobs added in December. Instead, the Labor Department said, non-farm employment rose only 103,000. The good news is that the Labor Department has pretty consistently underestimated job growth in its initial reports in recent months. In later revisions, that department has revised the monthly reports to show a substantially healthier economy than it initially indicated. If the pattern holds, December job growth was better than today's report says.

Here are the initial national employment reports from six months prior to December, followed by the latest revision from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

June initial: minus 125,000. June actual: minus 175,000
July initial: minus 131,000. July actual: minus 66,000.
August initial: minus 54,000. August actual: minus 1,000.
September initial: minus 95,000. September actual: minus 24,000.
October initial: gain of 151,000. October actual: gain of 210,000.
November initial: gain of 39,000. November latest: gain of 71,000.
December initial: gain of 103,000. December actual: ?????

Employers have created more than a million jobs since December 2009. Now they have to pick up the pace.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 10:08 AM | | Comments (1)
Categories: The Great Recession
        

Comments

Do these raw numbers have the wage figures to go with them?


And welcome back Jay.
I hope you had a great holiday even with some illness.

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Tuesdays and Sundays.
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