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October 5, 2010

Japan escalates currency war with U.S., China

A disturbing dynamic is going on in which countries are competing to devalue their currencies in order to make their exports more competitive. China, of course, is the main culprit, using its trade surplus to buy huge amounts of dollars each day, thus driving up the value of the dollar and keeping the renminbi artificially low.

The U.S. dollar is naturally weak because of the enormous budget deficits in Washington, low interest rates and the miserable economy. The Fed's policy of "quantitative easing," an unnecessarily obscure term that signifies the central bank's purchases of longer-dated and sometimes non-government debt, to lower long-term interest rates, exacerbates the dollar's weakness. (Even so, China's policy keeps the renminbi undervalued even against the dollar.) Many are waiting for another bout of QE from the Fed, dubbed "QE II," to juice the economy before the election.

Now Japan is escalating the currency war, cutting short-term interest rates to nearly zero, like those in the U.S., and throwing in a little quantitative easing to boot, the WSJ reports. During the Depression governments tried to protect domestic industries with barriers to imports. Such tariffs and quotas got a bad name for prolonging the slump and are now more or less taboo. The preferred state policy to protect domestic industry during this crisis seems to be debasing one's currency, a tactic which may not be as harmful as the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff but which is not without risks, either. Small wonder gold is hitting record prices of more than $1,300 an ounce.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 9:34 AM | | Comments (3)
Categories: The Great Recession
        

Comments

For those of us who saw this coming, are properly hedged and have a little over half of our investable net worth in precious metals, THIS IS GREAT!!!!!! Bring on third world dictator levels of inflation, I'm ready!

Two years ago when this all started going down and I started studying the philosophies of the men at the helm, namely Bernanke, Obama, Congress, Wen Jiabao, and Paul Krugman, it became clear the play book they would run.

The good news is, none of us have missed the boat yet. The last time the US effectively defaulted on a large amount of debt and sold the dollar down the river gold increased by a factor of 30 inside of a decade, much of it towards the end of the run. We're currently only up a factor of 2-3 depending on where you start measuring. We're still only about half the previous inflation adjusted high.

And this I think is the reason for gold and silver spots soaring today. It's been amazing to watch today.

But.....This is the reason that emerging markets have been see in India and many places in South America.

The "Scare" tactics of the Chinese Gvt have slowly tipped the scales and companies are no longer sole dependant on the chinese for the manufacturing and other primary services.

As for the fixed value, the Chinese still fix the rate of the Chinese Yuan and you have to wonder how this curbs inflation within the country.

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Tuesdays and Sundays.
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