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April 2, 2010

Climbing out of an 8-million-job hole

The March employment report shows the best results in three years: 162,000 jobs added to the economy. It was close to what analysts expected. True, the results were probably bolstered by the February snows, which bumped hiring into March, and census hiring. But it sure beats the months of 2009, when losses of half a million jobs per month were common.

Even so, it's barely a beginning of replacing all the jobs wiped out by the Great Recession. The economy has lost 8 million jobs since the downturn began. In March it reinstalled 2 percent of them. Nonetheless, if we get many months of this, pressure will grow on the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates.  

Here's a great snapshot of the labor market from Mint, via Big Picture. There are 16 million unemployed Americans, 8 million more than when the recession began.  EMPLOYMENT-PERSPECTIVE-R6.png.jpg

Posted by Jay Hancock at 8:52 AM | | Comments (2)
Categories: The Great Recession
        

Comments

Every month about 100,000 new people enter the workforce. This means the economy must make 100,000 new jobs each month just to break even or hold the unemployment rate steady. The 162k created in March really only gets us ahead by 62k and once you back out the 48k temporarily hired for census work it's essentially nothing.

The most jobs this country ever created was during the Clinton years: an average of 242k/month. Even if we could get back to that robust a level of job growth starting next month, at that rate it would take almost 5 years to dig out of this hole and return to a pre-recession unemployment rate of ~5%.

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Tuesdays and Sundays.
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