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March 4, 2010

What if I've locked in an electric price?

Yesterday's column was an expanded version of this blog post about falling electricity prices and alternative deals from Dominion Retail and other power sellers.

Bottom line: If you haven't switched to an alternative supplier yet, take Dominion Retail's deal of 10.37 cents per kilowatt hour for generation and transmission. It'll save you $10 or $20 a month off BGE's standard price of 11.78 cents for the summer months. Then, if prices continue to fall as experts believe they will, shop around again in the fall or at the end of the year. Either timing will work because Dominion's offer expires in December, but you can get out of the deal early penalty-free.

But what if you're like reader Ron and me, who switched to a 10.8-cent fixed-price deal from Washington Gas Energy Services a year ago? We've saved a decent amount of money. (BGE's standard price last summer was more than 12 cents.) But now some WGES customers are locked in until 2011 or even 2012 if they took a 3-year deal.

Unlike Dominion, WGES and other alternative suppliers charge an early termination fee of $75, $150 or sometimes even more. I told Ron I'm going to keep my WGES deal at least through the summer. My 10.8-cent price is still lower than the 11.78 cents BGE will be charging this summer. Then I'll see where the market is in the fall. (Let's hope no Gulf Coast hurricane disrupts natural gas supply lines, which would cause prices to spike.) If prices really do fall to 9 cents, as some are predicting, I'll do the math and see how many months of savings it would take to repay my WGES termination fee.

UPDATE: A reader asks: What are the risks of switching to Dominion? Here's my answer.

The risks are that electric prices spike back up in the near term. (Because of a hurricane or economic revival.) The Dominion deal expires in December. But even here you are hedged, because BGE has been locking up supply for 2011 and 2012 at current, lower prices. BGE's summer 2011 price will be decently lower than the summer 2010 price of 11.78 cents. (All these prices are exclusive of delivery, which adds another 2.5 cents or so.) Even BGE's standard price from Oct. 1 2010 to May 31 2011 is likely to be at or slightly less than the Dominion price. (It's still worth taking the Dominion deal to avoid BGE's high prices this summer, when your AC will be cranking.) So to me the potential downsides of taking the Dominion deal are limited.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 8:37 AM | | Comments (6)
Categories: BGE/electricity
        

Comments

Great information.

Jay - after reading your article, thanks for answering my question since I switched to WGES for 3 years based on your earlier columns (and advised my kids to do the same although only 1 did and for just 2 years). Would appreciate it if you let us know when/if you finally do the math on next potential switch so I know when to do the same.

constellation energy is offering 10.35 cents for 12 months.

I called Dominion and was informed they do not provide service to Maryland customers. I futher questioned this and after being transferred and then placed on hold, they confirmed.

Keith: A week ago Dominion's PR guy said they were offering the deal at least to the end of March. JH

Keith: Perhaps you were put in contact with the regular utility people instead of the retail power sales group. The deal is through Dominion Retail, whose number is 1-888-216-3721, according to http://www.dom.com/products/energy-offers/ppl-offer.jsp.

Just got a letter yesterday to renew my WGES at the low, low price of 9.7 cents. it seems like a good deal, but the termination fee of $150 makes me guy shy about it - what if the price drops for others even further? On the other hand, 9.7 is mad cheap.

Dom is at 10.30 cents as of yesterday, any may get cheaper - but the question is how much?

In the end, I'm more than likely to stay with WGES for a year and bank on my hunch.

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Tuesdays and Sundays.
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