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February 10, 2010

Will Google Buzz kill Facebook?

Those who say no point to Facebook's dominant status in social networking and the tendency for dominant networks to stay that way. Did Microsoft's search functions hurt Google? Did Barnes & Noble's online sales hurt Amazon? Will H&R Block's big ad campaign for its tax software hurt TurboTax?

Avis tries harder, but on the Net, when network effects rule, there's not as much upside in being No. 2. There is plenty of money to be made in "the long tail" of product distribution on the Web, but not so much in networks, where the dynamics of increasing rather than diminishing returns often leave only crumbs for the runners-up.

But, you say, Google already has a network, perhaps the awesomest ever. It's a good point. But Buzz still figures to be a long-shot to take much social networking juice from Facebook. And just to make sure, PC World's David Coursey has a great idea for Facebook:

To protect itself from Google, Facebook content must never appear in any form as part of any Google product. Not ever, and Facebook should make the announcement today. (You can see our visual tour of Google Buzz here).

Here's why: If Google Buzz is ever connected to Facebook, it will be the beginning of the end for today's #1 social network.

For Buzz to succeed, it needs Facebook content. By denying it, Facebook can help secure its future and help wall off Google.


UPDATE: Good point from David Carr @carr2n via Twitter:

in re, Goog me-too-ism, tweeters point out G search and email, both amazing, were started in established categories. and Wave is own thing.

Posted by Jay Hancock at 10:49 AM | | Comments (7)
Categories: Technology & Innovation
        

Comments

I finally opened a FB page (mostly to keep track of the kids) but never do anything with it beyond that, so I'm probably not the user type this is being asked about. However...

My sense is that 1) people LIKE having more than one entity behind the various things we use the web for 2) the mass of data and connections already established on FB and 3) a general resistance to supporting companies that have just grown too big... google will have a harder time drawing users.

The early adopter sort don't count.

Google Buzz will not gobble up Facebook users but will take some as folk like to change while some do no; AND, features are what make up these sites so Facebook will likely make alluring changes for competition does just this. I would think that the biggest feature that any site can offer is ease in getting around and about and what is offered. Networking is what it is all about for many folk and for others, it is just fun and interesting. I like Google and their blogspot.com and also like Facebook. MySpace is still in the race but I feel it is harder to navigate there. Just my opine.
Go GOOGLE go.

So far I love Google Buzz. Will it kill Facebook? I doubt it. I may however kill Twitter which constantly has downtime, and speed issues. Google buzz will do what twitter does plus more.
Eddie - http://BuzzUsers.com

Google Buzz does not appear to have an outward facing page like Facebook - it is all integrated into your google gmail account.

Without an outward facing page I do not see how they can compete with facebook.

I have a different perception after watching yesterday's press conference. First, google as over 150 million gmail users, not to mention ones being added in order to use their new android phones. This means for the most part people don't have to "sign up". Now if new gmail users do sign up to use it, mission 1 for google is accomplished they got more people using gmail.

Secondly, and what I think googles main message was, is that buzz allows you to communicate but also helps you find the "most relevant social messages" just like they do with their search engine, which sometimes is like looking for a needle in a hay stack. Facebook's theory is one of a time waster while google's theory is a time saver. And once the "playing" wears off of facebook, and it truly becomes a mundane task like the "checking of email", I think users will see the benefit of the quicker path.

Sure, this could flop on the other hand I think they will have enough users right of the bat that if the product really is better, word of mouth will travel. Yahoo and MSN Search were around before GOOGLE and the better product won. Facebook beat Myspace, the same way. In this case facebook should be scared, a very big shark just entered their pond, GOOGLE can replace facebook now, but facebook can't replace google.

"Facebook content must never appear in any form as part of any Google product."
Those who isolate themselves are missing what the concept of "web" means and will eventually die. There will be a new google and a new facebook 5-10 years from now. Google is already the new microsoft. Who will be the new google? I don't know why people act so dramatically and are so surprised. It's business and evolution. I guess we have to write about something... "In January 1999, near the peak of the dot-com bubble, GeoCities was purchased by Yahoo! for $3.57 billion in stock, with Yahoo! taking control on May 28."
oh no!!!!!

I think Google has a lot more to offer than facebook. Whether or not they take advantage of that and really put it all out there is another story. Getting people to ditch FB altogether will be a task but I don't think it is Googles intention to put FB out of business.

The key for google, if they want buzz to succeed, will be to really let people know how many different features they ALREADY have and how it could easily all be streamlined into buzz.

It should be easier for google to coax people into joining than it was for facebook though. There is already a large number of Gmail members and it's a lot easier to convince someone to use a simple add-on feature than to join an entirely new network altogether. So right out of the box google has a great advantage. I'm a really skeptical person but even I joined up on buzz when I got the notification for it. Even after first signing up there was already a list of people networking with me simply because they had gmail accounts and had signed up with buzz too, which takes away the hassle of having to seek out all of your friends.

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Tuesdays and Sundays.
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