Tyler Cowen says gold is a bubble
The price of gold, in case you hadn't noticed keeps hitting new highs. After spending the 1990s in the $300 and $400 range, it started rising, passed $1,000 and recently passed $1,100. The price is being driven up by speculation, yes, but also by the U.S. government's decision to print billions of dollar bills out of thin air and to add trillions to the national debt that will probably be paid back through inflation.
Tyler Cowen, however, says there is evidence that gold is a bubble -- the latest being a gold necklace shaped in the form of gold's round-trip price from the early 1980s to now. This is already earning him objections from gold bugs -- generally a prickly bunch. "Why is it that many academics have a thinly veiled contempt for the yellow metal...?" says the first commenter. It's true that gold has been a miserable investment over long periods. But when the world financial and economic system is as messed up as this one, an investment that doesn't depend on human competence -- indeed, it thrives on incompetence -- looks pretty good.







Comments
I summarized a 200 year history of gold and analyzed its key events at the following article I had published on the economics/finance website Seeking Alpha. Bottom line, during times of functional default by the US government it has shown a precedent for moving exponentially inside of a decade. I certainly wouldn’t be encouraging your readers to part with it for paper money just yet:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/165463-is-gold-s-price-rise-a-speculative-bubble-or-fundamentally-supported
Posted by: Josh Dowlut | November 13, 2009 7:11 PM