Down with extending the homebuyer tax credit
Even as the new Case-Shiller report shows that house prices rose a little in August, James Kwak and Simon Johnson show in the Washington Post how propping up home prices via tax incentives is like ingesting crack or heroin -- you have to keep taking bigger and bigger doses to get the the same high. (HT Calculated Risk.)
What happens when you artificially prop up housing prices? Imagine the credit were expanded to all home buyers and made permanent. This would simply boost housing prices at the low end of the market by close to $8,000, since all buyers would be willing to pay $8,000 more. (Prices would rise by a little less than $8,000 because at higher prices, more people would be willing to sell.) Whom does this benefit? Not first-time home buyers. It benefits people who already own houses (and their real estate agents) because it's a one-time boost in housing values.This would be just the latest chapter in a long history of government policies to boost housing prices -- the mortgage interest tax deduction, the capital gains exclusion on houses, the extension of the mortgage interest tax deduction to second houses, etc. Each of these policies pushes up prices just once; if you want to keep pushing up housing prices, you have to keep adding sweeteners.








Comments
talk to your pal Eileen Ambrose who just this morning suggested (or at least implied) that the program should be continued:
"But no extension should be granted unless Congress and the Internal Revenue Service deal first with issues of fraud surrounding the credit."
Don't worry, I corrected her ;)
http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/money/bal-bz.ambrose27oct27,0,7187360.story
Posted by: MrRational | October 27, 2009 10:16 AM
Sure, I can see where this could be a concern, except for the fact that old listing information is available... I'm looking at shifting from apartment life to a house because of this credit, and I'm the one going to be taking advantage of it, because I can get a house who's value has dropped and dropped and dropped over time in this market. The tax credit helps cushion up front any loss I might take from getting in now instead of the absolute bottom of the market.
Finally, even for those not in the same place as me, since bubbles bursting is a lot of pyschology, what's wrong with creating confidence in a market even if it is illusury?
Posted by: Doug | October 27, 2009 11:32 AM