Huge new tax shortfall probably overestimated
The new, projected numbers from the Board of Revenue Esimates are shocking. After all the cuts the state has already made (~$4 billion), it looks like it will have $2 billion too little to balance the books next fiscal year, writes Laura Smitherman. That's on top of another $230 million in cuts that will probably be needed this year. People knew there would be new hole. They didn't know it would look this big.
It's true the economy is hurting and Maryland has a long-term structural budget imbalance. But I find it hard to believe that next year's gap will be as big as $2 billion. The economy seems to be recovering. My guess is that the Board of Revenue estimates is being too pessimistic. After having repeatedly revised tax-collection projections downward, they probably don't want to do it again. That big, scary number will also increase political pressure to get slots up and going, and that could fill a decent part of the void by itself.







Comments
Everybody thinks the economy is recovering, and it might be. However, the deficits will KEEP GROWING unless Gov't starts to really tighten their belts. When the MD legislature stops passing unfunded Mandates then maybe we could start to bring back some FISCAL SANITY!!!!!!
Posted by: Joe | September 17, 2009 12:55 PM
Given how many times the Board of Revenue Esimates has underestimated the shirtfalls I think they should err towards the higher end. If things are better programs can always be added back.
Posted by: ravensfan | September 17, 2009 1:05 PM
Since the massive amount of welfare programs do not seem to be working and have instead become a way of life for recipients it would only make sense to cut drastically in this area.
Why finance a losing proposition in perpetuity anyway?
This paper routinely features lifelong public housing individuals in misguided efforts to evoke sympathy for them.
Yet no one asks why they have lived on public assistance for decades in the first place.
I am certain that also applies to food stamps, WIC, etc. etc.
And to what end?
If not ending these misbegotten programs, at least limit their lengths AFTER an extremely close examination of the rolls to determine fraud, cheating, etc.
I am certain the savings this would provide would be quite substantial.
Posted by: Robert Baer | September 17, 2009 1:05 PM
Jay, that's what I was thinking. Make it sound terrible so when he cuts less than expected he can take credit for minimizing the damage. Same reasoning a Maitre'd tells you 1/2 hours when it's only 15 minutes
Posted by: Jeff | September 17, 2009 1:08 PM
Jay the shortfall is that large because of the automatic growth in expenditures due to statutory mandates ( formulas like Cade, Thornton etc), the assumption of a higher ed tuition freeze,the expansion of medicaid rolls and environmental programs adopted in the special session of 2007. The accounting MUST show projected funding at those levels for FY 2011, not at current levels. the $2 billion deficit is not from funding current expenditures but from funding current plus the mandated increases. These can be changed by the General Assembly.
Posted by: telecommutenow | September 17, 2009 1:27 PM
How can we be surprised about more shortfalls? Owe'Malley and the Dems raise taxes leading to lower consumer activity leading to less government revenue. People are making less and moving out. And there's nothing to indicate that it's going to change. Just wait until Constellation decides it's not worth staying in MD.
Posted by: Toldyouso | September 17, 2009 2:07 PM
Please help me understand this--why do Marylanders (legistlature included) keep looking to slots as a fix to the recessionary shortfalls? None of the slots parlors in question are up and running yet--much less ground broken on the proposed sites. I formerly lived in a state that utilized slots/gambling to cover education costs, and the state had to bail out its own gambling business. Following that act, revenues in said state from gambling are much lower than ever was predicted. I just don't get it, and I'm sure that you can tell which way I voted on that particular measure last November.
Posted by: Laura | September 17, 2009 2:57 PM
State budget troubles usually lag behind recessions. The recession of the early 90s ended in March '91, but Maryland's budget troubles lasted into '92.
Particular to this recession is the fact that economic recovery may coincide with the end of federal stimulus funds to the states.
Another factor is the rapid growth of government spending in the pre-recession 2000s. Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana predicts that it will take many years for state revenues to again reach the levels needed to sustain the kind of spending states became accustomed to.
Posted by: Baltimoron | September 17, 2009 3:07 PM
Hard to believe? I'll wager you right now that the actual deficit will be much larger than $2B. Maryland is one of the states that relies heavily on income and property taxes. Both revenue streams have been hit hard by the recession and will not recover for many years, maybe decades. The next shoe to drop will be commercial real estate, resulting in another loss of tax revenue.
Posted by: Patrick | September 17, 2009 4:54 PM
Exonomists may look to limited definitions to say that this awful recession is over, but it isn't and won't be until we get out unemployed numbers down and get credit flowing to consumers make responsible home and auto purchases. That gets our tax revenues up and closes holes in the State's economy.
Posted by: Alan | September 17, 2009 5:20 PM
Can you believe the state of Maryland is in such a financial termoil? Well let's thank Gov. Martin O'malley for that one. In stead of running the Sate he want's to take over private businesses. Let businesses run themselves and look out for the people and not just Martin O'malley. We pay your salary and don't forget it. You should be ashamed of yourself trying to take your personal matters out on others for your personal gain. Wake up it's not working for you or the people. Take a good look at the Constellation Energy deal with EDF. That's doing something postive for you the state of MD and all those that live here work here and pay taxes here. You need to re-align many of the states programs and stop blameing others. Remember there is no I in team and together we can make this a better state where people can be proud to live and contribute to the successes of Maryland.
Posted by: Magoo Phillipps | September 17, 2009 5:39 PM
These serial announcements of shortfall and miscalculation in budgets remind me of calls from #1 son at college needing cash infusions.
The aggregate number doesn't concern me nearly as much as the amateur hour accounting.
Posted by: MrRational | September 17, 2009 6:08 PM
I'm sorry Mr. Hancock, but slots will not fill any revenue holes. Unless there were no current economy and they could be exported, slots will simply cannibalize other spending and siphon off a portion for owners. Inefficient, inelastic, and regressive taxing is all it is. The "revenue" talk was in error as to the facts before the referendum and the favorable vote didn't change that. The "Sun" did its bit for slots by endorsing them. It ought to have the decency to regard the facts now.
Posted by: Lee | September 17, 2009 9:58 PM