T. Rowe Price: July job losses won't be as bad
A note to clients from T. Rowe Price's chief economist, Alan Levenson. (No link.) He says that recent unemployment claims trends, once adjusted for big but noncontinuing auto layoffs, suggest that July job losses will be much lower than monthly losses in June and earlier.
July 25 Jobless Claims: +25,000 to 584,000 (July 18: +25,000 to 559,000) Bottom line: Smoothing through auto industry-related volatility, trending lower. July employment estimate: -285,000* Looking across the sharp 4-week "V" carved out by
unseasonably-timed auto industry layoffs, weekly jobless claims are 35,000 than four weeks ago; the four-week average is 57,000 lower (559,000 vs. 616,000). We believe that claims are headed lower.* In a reflection of the month-to-month improvement in jobless
claims, we estimate that nonfarm payroll employment declined by 285,000 in July (June: -467,000).
