BGE has posted its monthly update for natural gas prices. The price edged up from 57.05 cents per therm in June to 61.71 cents for July. At 62 cents it's only 40 percent of its price from last July, which was $1.58.

Last month I published a column saying that energy prices might be heading up and that you might want to sign up for WGES's fixed-price natural gas deals, even though they're substantially pricier than what BGE has been charging month to month. But the column was wishy washy.

"Based on what we're seeing so far, we would expect this winter's gas to probably be a little lower than last winter, but it's going to be higher than what we see right now," said Ronald T. Jennings, BGE's director of gas supply.

Is that reason enough to lock up your own supply, separate from what BGE will offer? (BGE is always your electric and gas delivery company, but suppliers can vary.) The best natural gas deal out there is from WGES (see phone number above), letting you buy for a year at 73 cents and two years at 84 cents.

While substantially higher than today's price, those deals - especially the two-year package - will look good if the economy recovers in a robust way. If prices of $1.20 or $1.50 per therm would make a distressing dent in your budget, the two-year WGES deal is the way to go.

I haven't locked in with WGES or anyone else for natural gas. I'm betting the economy will continue to be weaker than many expect. And I'm betting against another Hurricane Katrina, which disrupted gas production and shipment and caused prices to spike for the winter of 2005/2006. But energy prices seem to be sensitive to even subtle signs of economic growth, and it's not a clear call.