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June 9, 2009

Tanking Treasuries mimic stocks in reverse

When every other asset was plunging a few months ago, U.S. Treasury securities reached what may have been the peak of a long and amazing bull market that began in the early 1980s. Despite soaring U.S. debt and questions about whether it will all be paid back, Treasuries, backed by the taxing power of the government, were deemed a safe harbor during the financial collapse.

But when storms begin to abate, safe harbors empty out.

In a reverse image of soaring stock markets, Treasuries have fallen sharply since March. The longer the maturity, the worse they have done. Mutual funds owning lots of 30-year and 10-year Treasuries have gotten hammered. T. Rowe Price’s U.S. Treasury Long-Term Fund is down 13 percent so far this year. The Wasatch-Hoisington U.S. Treasury Fund has lost more than 20 percent, according to Reuters.

There is a big debate about whether the plunge heralds increasing fiscal problems for Washington and resurgent inflation or just signals that the emergency is over. (Bond interest rates and prices move in opposite directions. Investors bid rates up and push prices down when they fear inflation is near.)

It’s true that Treasury rates have spiked. But at 4.5 percent the yield on the 30-year bond is merely back where it was last summer. If the economy keeps improving it’ll go much higher

Posted by Jay Hancock at 9:36 AM | | Comments (0)
Categories: Personal Finance
        

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About Jay Hancock
Jay Hancock has been a financial columnist for The Baltimore Sun since 2001. He has also been The Baltimore Sun's diplomatic correspondent in Washington and its chief economics writer. Before moving to Baltimore in 1994 he worked for The Virginian-Pilot of Norfolk and The Daily Press of Newport News.

His columns appear Wednesdays and Fridays.
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