Merrill Lynch: Oil could fall to $25 a barrel
From the Financial Times: Merrill says oil could temporarily dip to $25 next year:
Merrill Lynch warned that oil prices could fall as low as $25 a barrel next year if the recession affecting the US, Europe and Japan extended to China, the main driver of demand growth in commodity markets in recent years.Merrill’s warning came as oil prices sank below the $44 a barrel on Thursday, the lowest level in almost four years, in spite of dramatic interest rates cuts in the UK, Europe and Sweden.
Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Merrill Lynch, said his main scenario was for oil prices to average $50 a barrel next year, but warned: “A temporary drop below $25 is possible if the global recession extends to China.”
Comments
When the price of oil was at $145, all the analysts were ahead of the curve with their $200+ calls. Glad to see that now they are also outracing the current price decline with their calls.
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Posted by: Bodz | December 5, 2008 6:52 AM
When oil was at $147 analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted $200 per barrel by years end and yet here we are. One would think that the 70% drop in the price of oil would include atleast a double digit drop in the demand, but that hasn't been the case either domestically or globally. Perhaps the diminished ability of commodites speculators to leverage their excesses has something to do with it. That sentiment isn't in line with the supply an demand folks who predicted $200 and now $25.
Posted by: Larry | December 5, 2008 8:02 AM
Dear Sir/Madam,
There was an article written
in Feb.2007 published in Iranian web news.
the address is
http://naftnews.net/more_news.asp?id=1709
Please read it and see how he predicted the oil and US$ + Gold prices.
I llok forward to see your response
also let me know if you don't have apersian translator to translate it
Regards,
Posted by: Saeed Nemati | December 5, 2008 1:11 PM